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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MTP 2025-27: A few quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, together with Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2025-27 this morning. As shown in Table 1 below, compared to last year’s MTP, the revised MTP sees somewhat slower growth and faster inflation, a...

The Senate approved a tax incentive bill for the green hydrogen sector, Pacheco said Galípolo’s appointment will be put to a vote by October 8, and the STF said energy distributors must issue tariff discounts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2024

Yesterday, the Senate approved a bill that guarantees tax incentives for the green hydrogen sector. The proposal includes sections vetoed by President Lula in the sanctioning of the green hydrogen bill passed by Congress earlier this year. According to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), G...

The Cabinet Reshuffle: Changing the Terms Doesn’t Change the Outcome
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2024

There’s a lot of noise about changes in the Cabinet. For external observers, this might look like an effort to refresh the team of Ministers. But in fact, it’s not. Some faces from the same tired deck of cards have simply moved from old positions to new ones. Others, like the Minister of Foreign ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2024

Aug 22 OPEC+: The OPEC has received updated compensation plans from Kazakhstan for the 7M24 over-production of oil volumes, which totaled about 1 699K bpd. KMG: The company and Chinese CNPC intend to launch urea production at the Zhanazholsky gas processing plant worth $1.5 bln. KMG: The company ...

Let’s not celebrate growth results just yet
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Sep 2024

Economic activity data showing 2.1% real growth in Q2 2024 over Q2 2023 suggests that the economy might be changing gears, and accelerating, from its meager 0.8% growth in Q1. Key sectors that have been clear laggards, such as construction and commerce, are finally moving into positive territory....

The Unbearable Lightness of GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2024

Once again, GDP has surprised on the upside, recording a seasonally adjusted expansion of 1.4% (against 0.9% expected) in the second quarter of the year compared to the first quarter, which was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, GDP grew by 3.3%, also surpassing th...

The president of the Republicanos party has withdrawn from the succession race in the Lower House, Galípolo’s confirmation hearing will likely take place after the Copom meeting, and the OAB calls for a review of the X case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2024

The president of the Republicanos party, Marcos Pereira, has withdrawn from running to succeed Arthur Lira as president of the Lower House. He has instead decided to support the pre-candidacy of Hugo Motta (PB), also from the Republicanos. The confirmation hearing for Gabriel Galípolo in the Econ...

South Africa’s economy registers moderate growth in Q2-2024, while electricity supply is more solid with over 5 months of no load-shedding
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Sep 2024

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.4% during the second quarter of 2024. This was following the first quarter’s no change in GDP (i.e. GDP growth rate of 0.0%, which was upwardly adjusted from -0.1%). On account of the weak quarterly growth rates, real GDP in the first half ...

Déjà-vu
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

The federal government has submitted the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) for 2025 to Congress, forecasting a primary deficit of R$ 40.4 billion (0.3% of GDP), which, once R$ 44.1 billion in court-ordered debt payments for next year are subtracted, would translate into a small surplus of R$ 3.7 billion,...

The IBGE releases the GDP result for the second quarter of the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

On Tuesday (September 3), the IBGE will release the GDP result for the second quarter of the year. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has called for a demonstration in São Paulo on September 7, Independence Day. Even with the informal recess in the Nati...

No tangible gains yet, it seems
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Consumer prices rose by 2.5% in August, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate declining sharply as anticipated to 52%, down from 61.8% in July, on the back of powerful base effects. Domestic-PPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, which reduced the 12-month rate to 35.8% from 41.4% a mon...

Senate leaders will meet to set the date for Galípolo’s confirmation hearing, Minister Tebet should present the 2025 Budget proposal to Pacheco, and Lira continues the search for his candidate in the House succession
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and the President of the Senate's Economic Affairs Committee (CAE), Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD-GO), are expected to meet today to discuss the date for Gabriel Galípolo's confirmation hearing, who has been appointed by President Lula to the presidency of the C...

Q2 GDP data is not quite as poor as it looks at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024

Detailed GDP data for Q2 2024 is out today. The preliminary report of -0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy growth (or the lack of it) has not changed. So clearly, the recovery seen in Q1 did not continue, which has proven to be a reason for a great deal of disappointment within the government and also in the priv...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

OVERVIEW THE RIGHT STUFF VERSUS THE EASY STUFF The highlight of the month was the relatively fast change in the pricing of monetary policy. Partly due to the harsh language expressed in the July Copom minutes and partly because of statements from members of the Board of Directors (notably ...

Economics: August indicators confirm significant deceleration, Pemex deterioration and risky monetary stance
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Economic activity continued to slow in recent months as evidenced by a slight downward revision of second quarter GDP results, the onset of a weakening trend that could worsen should potential risks on both the external and internal fronts materialize. The greatest threat domestically involve...

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