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Inflation speeds up as 2020 begins
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jan 2020

In December, the month-on-month inflation rate reached 50 percent (our estimate), higher than the 36 percent we had forecast. Year-on-year inflation thus ended 2019 at about 9,800 percent, compared with our earlier forecast of 9,050 percent. Inflation was pushed up by rising black market dollar p...

CPI-inflation reached a seven-year peak in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2020

CPI-inflation for December was reported at 0.3% mom, 4% yoy this morning. The yoy rate was up from 3.4% in November, and it was the highest number on record since December 2012. It was also marginally higher than the 3.9% yoy market consensus, which included us. But importantly, it exactly matche...

Economics: 2020 growth forecasts remain low
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The economic perspectives for 2020 anticipate weak GDP growth, due to lower dynamism in investment and private consumption. Specifically, we at GEA estimate economic growth of 0.2% for 2020 and 1.2% for 2021. Our estimated GDP growth is at the bottom of the range recently projected by other analy...

2020 political drivers and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2020

A relatively quiet week - President Jair Bolsonaro resumes his activities after a period of rest. Civil servants discuss a campaign for salary increases and a possible strike on March 18. On Thursday, January 16, the Central Bank releases the IBC-Br (GDP preview) for November. This week's Talk...

Politics: 2020 challenges and political agenda
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2020 · 1 response

After a year in office, President Andrés López Obrador’s main achievement appears to be his successful bid to sell his political project to a population anxious for much-promised change. While concrete results as such have been meager, AMLO’s popularity remains high, with approval levels between ...

Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political context
ECUADOR · Forecast · 13 Jan 2020

The slowdown in the economy continued in Q3 2019 with scant growth of 0.1% q/q and a decrease of 0.1% y/y. With these results, 2019 GDP growth might confirm the negative 0.5% we expect, leaving an unsettling economic environment during an electoral year, when the government will have to continue ...

Petroleum and its Reflections on the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2020

A possible escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran triggered fears of a steep rise in the price of oil, which reached US$ 71 per barrel before returning to its earlier level. It’s likely that from the standpoint of the effects on prices, the worst has already passed, but the...

The ANC’s 2020 anniversary celebrations amid power cuts and an insipid economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The African National Congress (ANC) anniversary celebrations known as "The January 8" celebrations, during which the ANC delivers its annual statement that is essentially the "state of the party address", took place on Saturday, January 11, 2020. The January 8 statements have their origin in the ...

Unlimited monetary expansion with capital controls, and uncertain fiscal accounts
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Jan 2020

Since taking office four weeks ago, the Alberto Fernández government has announced many dispersed economic measures to redistribute income. But there is not yet a consistent or complete plan for stabilizing the economy, and promoting growth -- much less a plan for how to free the economy from the...

Higher bond issuance was offset by stronger consumer savings
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 2019 necessitated doubling the net bond issuance, but this was facilitated by stronger household savings. Rates remained on hold, with a strong message that FX intervention is currently the BoI preferred tool. We expect December's CPI to reach 0.1% m/m (0.7% y...

Headline CPI-inflation to have risen sharply in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

The December CPI-inflation data will be released on Tuesday. On this occasion, the yoy headline rate is likely to rise sharply, to 3.9% from November's 3.4% and October's 2.9%, essentially due to a sizeable base effect related to fuel prices. Please, kindly take note that the MNB is unlikely to r...

Ukraine-Iran tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

On January 11 Iran admitted accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian International Airlines plane a week ago. Iran had initially denied being responsible. Half of the 173 people aboard were Iranians. Iran has enough enemies and has no reason to provoke Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine have both suspende...

All relatively calm on the Turkish front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2020 · 1 response

It was a relatively quiet week in Turkey, for a change. After the Erdogan-Putin summit on the 8th of January, twin ceasefires were declared in Syria’s Idlib Province and by the warring parties in Libya. Yet, there is no guarantee that the fragile calm will last in either place. December-Januar...

Weekly highlights: Higher bond issuance in 2019 was offset by stronger consumer savings
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019. The deficit level has been stable during the past few months. The deficit overshot target by 12bn, with spending overshooting the original budget by 2.8bn and revenues below target by 9.2bn.We expect the deficit to remain at a similar level in 2020, an...

​IRAN: Admission of guilt for downing plane is a risk-off development
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2020

For three days, Iran insisted that the crash of Flight 752 to Ukraine on Wednesday was due to mechanical error, despite the coincidence of it happening just hours of Iran’s counterstrike on US bases in Iraq. This was maintained despite mounting evidence and accusations from Canada’s prime ministe...

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