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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

OFZ: Retail flows to support the market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

The deceleration of inflation in Russia pushed down interest rates across the economy, including those of banking deposits. This trend has already fueled the demand of private individuals for financial markets, as they have already opened more than 3 mln accounts at the Moscow Exchange. We see hi...

Reconciling the incompatible
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 02 Jan 2020

The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced mixed impressions, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The ...

Robust budget execution signals GDP growth is steady
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat recently revealed that after a weak start to the year, y-o-y GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 3Q19 from 0.5% and 0.9% in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget balance turned negative in October amid stable revenue flow as spending started to catch u...

Strong profit tax collection hints at better growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation remained at 0.1% for another week, consumer prices increased by a mere 0.2% from December 1 to 16, and inflation in 2019 as a whole is likely to stay around 3.1% or even lower, to fall well below 3.0% next month (say, to around 2.5%) and to stay around this ...

The EU penalty: negative corrections appeared on the BOP and fiscal accounts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

We wish a happy new year to all of our readers!A EUR1423 million (cca. HUF460 billion) negative correction appeared on net transfers from the EU between the preliminary and the final versions of the Q3 2019 BOP, cutting the January-September net inflow number from 3.2% of GDP to just 1.8% of GDP....

Gas transit contract signed: no transit rate increase
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 30 Naftogaz and Gazprom signed a 5-year gas transit contract. A 65 bcm of natural gas will go through Ukrainian pipeline in 2020 and 40 bcm per year through 2021-2024. According to President Zelenskiy Facebook page Ukraine will receive $7 billion for pumping the agreed volume of natur...

Russia and Ukraine sign energy deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 31 Ukraine and Russia agreed a 5 year contract for gas transit via Ukraine. Gazprom is the Russian state gas company that signed the deal. This is a gain for both countries and another sign for optimism regarding the conflict. The deal was clinched at the 11th hour. Russia was keen to...

Russia will not send oil to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 21 several oil sources confirmed that Russian oil companies will not dispatch oil to Belarus because a deal has not been agreed. Oil transit via Belarus was important for both countries. Russia has tried to negotiate reunification with Belarus. This was agreed in principle 20 years ag...

Eurasian Economic Union: FTAs to revitalize a stagnated project?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2019

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

Ending the year with optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2019

In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

Economy in 2019, in pictures
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Executive Summary: • The recession of 2018 was short and shallow, thanks to looser global monetary policies, Trump’s leniency toward Turkey that kept political risks in check, and huge amount of domestic stimulus... • Growth should now finish the year in moderately positive territory, in cont...

Growth slowly recovers
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

Strong service exports are shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

Service exports expanded sharply in October by 4.4% m/m (15.3% y/y). Service exports are mostly hi-tech services (software, IT, cyber, etc.).This sector is less sensitive to the global manufacturing slowdown.Service exports are expected to expand by nearly 10% this year.Import prices of consumer ...

Ukraine and Russia exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

On December 29 Ukraine and Russia announced that all prisoners of war are being exchanged. Ukraine is releasing 87 men and getting back 55. Among those set free are the Ukrainian sailors captured in November 2018. This exchange is the best indication yet that both countries are sincere in their d...

Russian population falling fast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2019

On December 28 Rosstat (the Russian Statistics Agency) released forecasts for the next 15 years. There are three alternative demographic projections but all of them show Russia's natural population falling. It just depends how much. In 2019 the Russian population fell for the first time in 10 yea...

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