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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Monetizing debt does not relieve China’s debt burden
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
The relative pick-up in nominal GDP growth and the deflator reduces the cost of servicing the debt in real terms, but households absorb part of the cost by providing borrowers with hidden rate subsidies. Policies involving any form of monetization to manage debt, such as low lending rates relativ...
The Indian economy
INDIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017 · 1 response
Aggregating micro data shows a different story than official data. Challenges remain for the Central Bank and the banking industry.
One trillion dollar economy
INDONESIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Prospects remain bright, bolstered by stable macro conditions, a rising middle class, and improving institutions. Infrastructure development is a key focus of the government, especially in tourism.
Economic Risk Balance 2017-2018
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
The economy is growing more rapidly, nourished by domestic consumption and non-oil exports, but risks remain, including US protectionism, rising inflation and political uncertainty.
In Need of a Confidence Boost
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Growth remains fragile, and private sector investment will be the chief determinant of meaningful expansion, but the current political turmoil has led to low confidence among business and the consumer.
Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Turkey’s risk profile is set to rise gradually, probably culminating in a series of elections to begin by mid-2018. Growth this year has been saved, but in the absence of new “tricks” or “rabbits” it is likely to slow next year to around 3%.
Politics: Presidential Ratings Near Rock Bottom
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The latest GEA-ISA nationwide poll of registered voters shows President Enrique Peña Nieto’s disapproval ratings have reached historical highs as the public displays a deep sense of pessimism about how things are likely to evolve in the election year. The administration might possibly glean sn...
Week of September 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017 · 1 response
The second PGR accusation against President Michel Temer begins its progress in the Lower House. The rapporteur will be chosen on Tuesday, September 26. The Lower House and Senate will also vote on Political Reform proposals. Congressmen will try to reach a deal with the Ministry of Finance on th...
How much equity capital is needed for India’s banks?
INDIA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
In a banking crisis, banks are over-leveraged. We use historical experience to identify certain levels of leverage, which we claim are normative values for the maximal permissible leverage of a bank. We work out the additional equity capital that should go into Indian banking in order to achieve ...
The Rise of the Tourism Industry
INDONESIA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The tourism industry has become another prime mover of the Indonesian economy. Long experiencing relatively slow growth, the industry has gotten increasing attention from the new government. In fact, optimism abounds that in the next few years, the tourism industry will become one of the largest...
Economics: Pros and Cons of Revised NCPI
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017
In light of the need to regularly update how inflation surveys are conducted to in order to better track consumers’ actual consumption patterns – reflecting changes in consumer preferences for products and services, their availability and relevance to consumers, the sorts of venues in which the p...
New Indications on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017
Against a backdrop of anchored inflation expectations and a negative output gap, the Central Bank has induced a decline of the market real interest rate below the neutral level. The indication in the most recent Inflation Report is that the SELIC rate can remain stable for a long period – probabl...
A failed (and unconstitutional) attempt to modify ACP’s budget: Beyond Barria’s case
PANAMA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
Article 220 of Panama's Political Constitution asserts that The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will present its budget proposal to the Cabinet, which in turn is subject to Congress for its examination, approval, or rejection (Chapter 2, Title 9 of the Panamanian Constitution). This is the basis of ...
How Far Does Moreno Want To Go?
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The ongoing animosity between President Lenin Moreno and former president Correa and the evident lack of support of a majority of legislators still loyal to Correa is a direct threat to the stability and success of this government. However, it has also opened an interest opportunity for More...
Winter Is Coming
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2017
The referendum by Iraqi Kurds, assuming it is held, doesn’t pose a major threat to Turkey’s unity, but its aftermath is almost certain to require Turkish involvement in Iraqi affairs in unpleasant ways. Turkey’s descent into the Middle Eastern “event horizon” will accelerate as Turkish Forces mak...