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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s current account registers a deficit in Q2-2023 as the country’s terms of trade deteriorate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Sep 2023

An unwelcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the country’s current account balance recorded its fifth consecutive deficit during the second quarter of 2023. The deficit on the current account widened further,...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023

Aug 25 NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank has decided to lower the base rate by 25 bps to 16.5% with a corridor of plus or minus 1 pp NBK: The Bank has raised the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2024-2025 to 4-5% per year (vs 3.5-4.5% earlier). KMG: The Company and AD Po...

Good industry data, CPI tomorrow, reports going on holiday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The July industrial output data, reported this morning, actually looks quite good. Output grew 2.8% from June, a nice upturn after a nearly one year long downtrend (chart in volume terms, December 2010 = 100, courtesy of KSH): In yoy terms, output was still down by 2.7% yoy, after -5.3% yoy in Q2...

Medium-term program announced
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-26 was released today, which was presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, followed by remarks from President Erdogan.

In Q2-2023, the South African economy managed to record another positive growth result, yet households are struggling
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2023

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.6% during the second quarter of 2023, following the first quarter’s increase of 0.4% q/q. While the 2Q GDP figure shows another positive increase, in a similar manner to Q1-2023, the magnitude of increase was low, which indicates the South ...

When it rains, it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 06 Sep 2023

Since central Chile has been enduring decades of drought, when it rains the results can be catastrophic. And so they were in mid August, when some 200 mm fell in Santiago and the south-central region where agricultural exports come from. The damage, according to the National Farmers’ Association,...

Lula will try to finalize Ministerial Reform by the end of the day today, the House approved the Desenrola bill yesterday, and the House also approved the urgent status of the ICMS compensation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2023

Ministerial reform remains stalled. The Ministry of Ports and Airports will be given to the Republicanos party. The PP, however, is reluctant to accept the Ministry of Sports. The party sees the offer as a consolation prize. Yesterday, the House approved a bill that creates the Desenrola program,...

A strong start for September: retail sales and ÁKK
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2023

To their credit, the government's various branches are not leaving much time for investors to feel bored about Hungary. First, July retail sales was reported this morning. In volume terms, on sda basis, sales fell by 0.2% mom and 7.8% yoy, after a 8.1% yoy drop in June. January-July was a rather ...

Kazakhstan to hold referendum on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 1 Tokayev delivered a keynote speech in which he said the country would decide whether or not to build nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is a controversial topic in former Soviet countries because of Chernobyl. Kazakhstan has plenty of oil, gas and coal so why does it need nuclear energ...

Firing across ceasefire line kills Armenians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 1 the exchange of fire killed 3 Armenian soldiers. A blockade of an Armenian controlled area has been ongoing for months. This has led to several people dying due to a lack of medicine. Azerbaijan is blockading the area.  Russia denies that it has lost interest in Armenia. Armenia is...

Russian macro: The new reality—looking at what kind of economy emerges in Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 7M23, and in July alone it was up 7.1% y-o-y. There numbers don’t look extraordinary amid last year’s low base effects but rather indicate that the economy is doing relatively well despite some signs of a deceleratio...

Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2023

We comment on key data and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows in Jul to 6.0 percent YoY, but remains consistent with our full-year 8.0 percent GDP forecast Armenia: S&P upgrades Armenia to BB- Armenia: Fresh tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh poi...

Cuba claims that Russia has recruited Cubans to fight in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 5 Cuba announced that it has uncovered a network that persuades Cubans in Russian to volunteer for combat in Ukraine in return for Russian citizenship. Cuba has launched a criminal investigation. Cuba considers this mercenary activity, which is unlawful. Russia has not responded to t...

Lula is expected to finalize Ministerial Reform by tomorrow, the House approved the urgent status of the CMN bill, and the deadline for submitting edits to the investments MP ended yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

President Lula is advancing in the negotiations on Ministerial Reform to give government positions to the PP and Republicanos parties. The PP should be given the Ministry of Sports and the Republicanos, the Ports and Airports Ministry. Yesterday, the House approved the urgent status of Bill 2685/...

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