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Biggest ever drone strike in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2023

On August 29/30 there were drone strikes on six Russian regions. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had destroyed most of the drones. There was no report of any deaths arising from the attacks. Russia said it had sunk four military speed boats on the Black Sea carrying around 50 Ukrainian speci...

UN says 9,511 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2023

On August 30 the UN published the figure. This is the figure of those whom the UN can confirm were killed due to the war and not any other reason and were definitely civilians.  The true death toll is likely to be higher. The UN says that over 12,000 civilians have been wounded in the war. The UN...

Weak Q2 GDP data was nothing extraordinary
HUNGARY · Report · 30 Aug 2023

Preliminary GDP data shows that the recession continued in Q2, and the year-on-year setback increased from previous quarters. Analysts typically found this result surprisingly negative. We do not share this general assessment, as the poor performance of Q2 GDP was properly predicted by output, wa...

The MP on the taxation of exclusive and open funds may be joined with the bill on offshore taxation, the House will vote on payroll tax exemptions today, and the Senate will vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2023

The incorporation of the provisional measure (MP) on exclusive funds into the bill that deals with offshore taxation is being discussed in the House, as the provisional measure may expire. The maneuver would join both texts into a single proposal—an important part of the set of measures intended ...

The fiscal deficit deepens in the first half of 2023. The political scenario remains uncertain until the September deadline for alliances
PANAMA · Report · 29 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The official data for the first half of 2023 reveals an increase in the deficit compared to the previous year. However, these figures do not account for expected dividends from the Panama Canal, potential new royalties from the pending mining contract approval, or projected funds from land sales ...

Smooth Guatemalan transition expected; economies bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Guatemala’s economy is expected to continue expanding in 2023 and 2024, though at a slower pace than in 2022. There are no signs of stagnation in our review of the forecast we presented in March. Internal political conditions in recent months have been complex, but we don't expect more political ...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit annual growth decelerates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew y-o-y by 2.6% in 7M23, which was higher than 2.2% in 1H23. At the same time, industrial y-o-y growth decelerated in July to 4.9% (from 6.7% and 5.8% in May and June). Of course, there were strong base effects several months ago - amid a low 2Q22 base. ...

Who will be the next Governor?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

High-tech exports expand modestly High-tech service exports (a major economic driver) increased by 1.6% m/m in June and by 9.8% y/y (sa). The second quarter witnessed growth of 4% saar. June’s strong print will most likely support an upward revision in the second estimate for Q2 GDP. Although inv...

BRICS seek to project alternative to G7 after summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

 On August 25  the summit in South Africa ended. Russia was represented by the Foreign Minister. Putin did not go because South Africa has signed the Rome Statute and theoretically would have been obliged to carry out the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant.  BRICS agreed to move forwar...

Sterilisation rate fell by 100 bps to 14% today, just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

The Monetary Council acted in line with widespread expectation today. The O/N deposit rate and the repo rate were reduced by the same amount, the latter to 16.5%, whereas the base rate and the interest rate on the non-auction O/N deposit facility - the lower end of the interest rate corridor - we...

China’s debt cannot be resolved by shuffling debt-servicing costs
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * July data were very poor, indicating that weak demand continues to plague the Chinese economy. Imports were down, inflation was low, and retail sales seriously disappointed. * Debt creation in July was much lower than expected, but economic gro...

An MP was published on the taxation of exclusive and open funds, an agreement on the payroll tax exemption bill should be announced today, and the Senate is expected to discuss Tax Reform with governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Yesterday, a provisional measure (MP) was published that equalizes tax rules between exclusive and open funds. The measure is part of the government's effort to bring the deficit to zero next year. As noted by the leader of the government in the House, José Guimarães (PT-CE), an agreement on the ...

Politics: The Paredes, Gálvez contest for the opposition candidacy has strengthened the alliance; the MC remains on the sidelines to date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2023

With just over a week to go, the field competing to become the opposition presidential candidate has been narrowed down to a politician of great experience and trajectory who represents the best of the party tradition (the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes), and a fresh and charismatic figure who unites and ...

Economics: Fruitless consultations give way to US and Canada's convening a trade panel over Mexico's restrictions on imports of GM corn
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) escalated on August 17 its objections to Mexico's curbs on genetically modified corn imports by requesting a dispute arbitration panel to address its objections to Mexico's curbs on imports of genetically modified (GM) white corn for the...

Post-fiscal framework legislative priorities and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023 · 1 response

With President Lula's return to Brazil after the BRICS meeting, Ministerial Reform may be finalized. In the House, the highlight was the vote on payroll tax exemptions. In the Senate, the bill on the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF) will be put to a vote. On T...

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