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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends debt maturity, Iranian FM meets MBS, UAE trades oil in rupees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended the average maturity of its local sukuk in a $10bn buy-back and issuance. * PIF could get a cash windfall of up to $8bn if SoftBank buys its Vision Fund holdings in Arm. * Iran’s foreign minister vis...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Continued pressure on Uzbekistani sum should make local currency investments challenging in medium term
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Aug 2023

The decision last week to devalue the sum in a more forceful manner has led us to think deeper about an argument that we have been consistently making to clients, i.e., that macroeconomic developments that usually tend to influence currency movements will pale in comparison to underlying (and lar...

Allegations against Bolsonaro worsen, Congress is still waiting for ministerial reform, and the House may vote on the new fiscal framework next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023

Yesterday (17), in a hearing of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks, hacker Walter Delgatti said Bolsonaro promised him a pardon if he was arrested for hacking electronic voting machines and stated that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Mora...

New polls show an improvement in Lula’s rate of approval, the TCU postponed the adjudication of a case regarding board positions in regulatory agencies, and the negotiations on ministerial reform continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2023

Two opinion polls highlight the different situations of the country's two main political leaders. The approval of the Lula government (PT) reached 60% in the Genial/Quaest poll of August 16, an increase of four points in relation to the June poll. Another point of positive news for Lula was the i...

Still on pause
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2023

As expected, the Monetary Board maintained policy settings for the third time, keeping the key overnight rate at 6.25%. In his first policy press conference, BSP Governor Eli Remolona reiterated that the authorities remain prepared to resume tightening if the need arises. After tweaking downwards...

South Africa’s political economy temperature is rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

This week South Africa is abuzz with much political noise. To begin with today is the anniversary of the Marikana Massacre 11 years ago where 34 mine workers were mowed down by the police at Lonmin platinum mine, partly owned by President Ramaphosa, who then was a high profile and influential mem...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The rapid depreciation of the ruble became the main event in the past weeks (especially at the end of last week). Since the start of the month, it moved by more than 10% by August 15 (from R/$91.6 to $/R101) and encouraged the authorities to act. As a result, the CBR called for an extraordinary B...

Ukraine War close to a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has continued in southern Ukraine and around Bakhmut. At the maximum point of penetration, Ukraine has advanced 18 km since the start of June 2023.  Ukraine's objective appears to be to reach the Sea of Azov around Mariupol and thereby break the land bridge between...

Economy continues to grow amid some slowdown in the industry
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 7M23, the short-term indicator (covering over 60% of GDP and involving six major sectors) grew by 5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, the figure was 5.6%. Unfortunately, the Bureau provided no m-o-m and y-o-y numbers for individual months. Therefore, detecting ...

Recession continued in Q2 as well, analysts expected markedly better numbers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

Preliminary Q2 GDP growth was reported at -0.3% qoq, -2.3% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. Analysts appear to be unhappy, as the median expectation was +0.3% yoy, -1.3% yoy. There was a downward revision of the Q1 data as well, to -0.4% qoq, -1.2% yoy, from the original actuals of -0.2%...

President Abinader announces re-election aspirations, amid flagging economic growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Aug 2023

President Luis Abinader has just announced that he will seek a second term. Though he’ll have to formally seek his PRM’s nomination in this October’s primaries, there’s no doubt that the popular president will win his party’s backing. He justified his decision to run for reelection in May 2024 on...

The new fiscal framework should be put to a vote next week, ministerial reform has not been finalized, and a power blackout affected 25 states and the Federal District yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2023

The vote on the fiscal framework in the House has been scheduled for next week. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), confirmed that it will be put to a vote on Tuesday, August 22. Yesterday, Arthur Lira said that he does not plan on meeting with President Lula this week to discuss min...

Headline growth steady, but the devil was in the details
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

GDP growth surprised on the upside, reaching 3% saar in Q223 (our forecast was 2.8%, Bloomberg survey: 2.3%). The devil was in the details. A closer look point to a decelerating economy. Industrial exports actually declined by 8.5% saar and high-tech service exports by 1.8%. Total exports decline...

Russian espionage alleged in the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

On August 15 it was announced by the BBC that 3 Bulgarians were arrested in the UK February 2023 but their arrest has only been publicized now. The 3 were suspected of spying for Russia. It has been alleged that they had fake passports stating they were citizens of several European countries incl...

Further improvement in the BOP in Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

The preliminary balance of payments data for June was reported today. A few days earlier, KSH released some very positive merchandise trade numbers for the month already. But it is normally more efficient to look at the BOP, which offers the full picture, rather than just providing a partial view...

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