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The Start of the Monetary Easing Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Why did the COPOM decide to cut the SELIC rate by 0.5 percentage point, with five favorable votes against four votes for a decrease of only 0.25 p.p.? An initial interpretation is that the Central Bank yielded to political pressure from the government, which was indeed strong, and hence not only ...

Georgia bans export of US cars to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

On August 2 Georgia made the announcement. It had already banned the re-export of EU cars to Russia in July 2023. Georgia presumably fears secondary sanctions if it does not do this. From January to July 2023 Georgia sold 3,786 cars to Russia worth USD 52 million. The Russian elite prefers to dri...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Aug 2023

We report on the key data releases from the CCA region last week: * The Armenian central bank cut the policy rate as expected; further easing is on the cards. * July inflation in Armenia points to price pressures' reaching a bottom. * The Georgian central bank eases further; the ra...

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week, Senator Eduardo Braga should be announced as the rapporteur for Tax Reform, and the president of the Central Bank will participate in a public hearing in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Last week, President Lula stated that he may make changes to the ministerial team this week. The main objective is to include the PP and Republicanos in the team. The entry of the two parties could increase the government's support in Congress to 364 deputies and 59 senators—at least on paper. Th...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Aug 2023

1. Wage growth has accelerated in recent months, posing an increasing inflation risk. 2. The shekel remains volatile, reacting to political developments surrounding the judicial overhaul. 3. The BoI sees the possible worsening of the macro environment as a higher risk to financial stability...

July inflation data to show a sharp decline of the yoy headline rate tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

KSH is set to release its July data for CPI-inflation tomorrow. There is no doubt at all that it will show a marked decrease of the yoy headline rate, because of a high base-period value: in July 2022, the monthly inflation rate was no less than 2.3%. In Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll, the med...

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

Ukraine claims Russia attacked blood transfusion center
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

On August 7 Ukraine said a guided bomb hit the center near Kupyansk, in northeast Ukraine, killing 2 people. Ukraine provided photographic evidence. Zelensky said it was a war crime. He said those who did this were beasts and terrorists. If Russia did hit the transfusion center it might have been...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2023

Wages continue to accelerate Initial data for average wages in June, reflect nominal growth of 6.3% y/y (for Israelis only, exc. foreigners), accelerating from 5.4% in May. Wages have accelerated in recent months on the back of a tight labor market, especially in service sectors. This is likely t...

Russian tanker hit by Ukrainian drones according to Russian media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2023

On August 5 the tanker was allegedly hit in the Kerch Strait. This caused traffic to be stopped on the Kerch Bridge for about 3 hours. The bridge links Crimea to mainland Russia.  The chemical tanker SIG did not spill anything due to the drone attack. The tanker is under US sanctions for deliveri...

Petro's son claims illegal funding in presidential campaign; now what?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

Yesterday, in Nicolás Petro's (NP) trial, the prosecutor said that NP claims that illegal funding reached his father Gustavo Petro's presidential campaign.Could this process end up in Petro's being removed from office?We are not constitutional lawyers, but after doing some consultation, the next ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi records Q2 deficit and extends oil cuts, Qatar provides bridge loan to Argentina, Oman IA posts strong 2022 results
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Aug 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia recorded a small deficit in Q2 but spending growth slowed and non-oil revenue hit a record. * Saudi government deposits, particularly for quasi-government institutions, have fallen sharply. * The Q2 Saudi fla...

President Lula inaugurated the new Minister of Tourism, the Tax Reform text was submitted to the Senate, and the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) is expected to be launched next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2023

Yesterday, President Lula inaugurated the new Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino (União Brasil-PA). But party leaders made it clear that this does not mean that the Planalto Palace will have the party's unconditional support. The Senate received the Tax Reform text that was approved by the House. ...

Afghan-Kazakh Business Forum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

On August 4 the forum opened. Kazakhstan officially lists the Taliban as a terrorist organization, despite that the Kazakh Embassy in Kabul has remained open since the Taliban took over. 200 Afghan delegates came to Astana. Afghan-Kazakh trade is worth USD 1 billion per annum. They aim to raise i...

Retail sales may have reached the bottom of the trough in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

Just as expected, industrial output and retail sales data for June was not particularly encouraging, to say the least. Industry fell by 0.9% mom and 5.5% yoy, the latter implying -4.9% yoy in Q2, following -3.6% yoy in Q1. The usual pattern of early this year was continued: car manufacturing and ...

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