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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation surprises again on the downside, supporting rate stability in September
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

Inflation surprises again on the downside Inflation in July increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.3% to 0.5%, we were at the high end), and moderated to 3.3% y/y from 4.2% (due to strong base effect). Core inflation moderated as well to 3.6% y/y from 4.5%. All major categories reflect mo...

Easier said than done
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2023

Internal taxation, both national and sub-national, is excessive and disorderly, strongly hurting businesses. States and municipalities arbitrarily increased tax rates, made compliance more strict and increased penalties as their income was hit by the decline in economic activity, inflation an...

Haddad’s statement about the power of the House was not well received, the House may vote on the minimum wage MP, and Haddad also spoke about revolving credit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2023

A statement made by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to journalist Reinaldo Azevedo was not well received in the House. He said that the House has "a lot of power" but cannot use it against the Senate and the Executive Office. On social media, Lira said that biased and out-of-context statements d...

Political reset after liberal victories in the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Yesterday's primary elections were once more a clear example of how difficult it is nowadays for political polls to anticipate electoral decisions. Most polls placed the Libertarian presidential candidate, Javier Milei, in a range between 20% to 15%, with only a few extremes close to the 25% and ...

Economics: Poverty declines, incomes rise, yet major social deprivations prevail
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

The results of the 2002 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) were released at the end of July, while this past week the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policies (Coneval) released the poverty figures for the same year, using data from the same survey....

Politics: Sharp debate erupts on the character of free school textbooks, reflecting the political divide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

A major controversy has erupted in Mexico concerning the free textbooks for primary and high school students. The debate is taking place on several levels. On the legal front, there are questions as to whether educators, parents, teachers, were consulted, as mandated by the General Law on Educati...

Airlines in Russia face technical trouble due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2023

On August 14 Red Wings Airlines had to delay a flight from Turkey to Russia for a second day due to a breakdown. The airline said that it has three Boeing 777 planes, and two of them are unflyable at the same time. Turkey is the only NATO country that has placed no restrictions on flights to and ...

Ministerial reform focuses on the House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

President Lula may announce changes to his ministerial team. In the Senate, Eduardo Braga should present his work schedule for Tax Reform. The House may vote on the new fiscal framework and the urgent status of the payroll tax exemption bill. This week's Talking Points:  * Differences ...

Despite Deceleration, GDP Will Grow by 2.3% in 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

After expanding by 1.9% in the first quarter, spurred by the 1.5 percentage point contribution of agriculture, GDP began decelerating in the second quarter. However, the result is better than expected, and reflects not only a still robust labor market, with growth of the occupied population in th...

Inflation Untamed
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Inflation is not abating. We have revised up our inflation forecasts for the remainder of 2023, and for 2024 also. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) is not managing to contain the upward pressure on the exchange rate. Public spending has been growing strongly, increasing the fiscal incidence...

President Lula should make changes to his ministerial team this week, the new fiscal framework should be put to a vote, and the CDE may vote on Deputy Ortiz’s report on the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

President Lula may meet this week with the president of the House, Arthur Lira, to discuss ministerial reform. The PP and Republicanos expect a decision in the coming days. This week, the House may vote on the new fiscal framework. Today, the rapporteur, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), will meet w...

Country Garden: further stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Country Garden, China’s second-largest property developer, has exhibited several signs of stress. It failed to inject additional funds into its developments and did not make payments on two bonds. Country Garden's June contracted sales at 17 billion yuan, according to CRIC's preliminary estimates...

Shekel depreciation increases the likelihood of further tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Aug 2023

1. Pressure for shekel depreciation continues, increasing the likelihood of further monetary tightening. 2. We expect July’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on seasonal factors; Q223 GDP is expected to reflect growth of 2.8% saar. 3. The elevated risk premium for Israel has been translated into a we...

Kyrgyzstan: New military doctrine in a shifting Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Given the shifting geopolitical environment in the world, Kyrgyzstan is drafting a new defense policy for the country. Clashes with Tajikistan in 2021 left the country feeling exposed. And long gone are the days of leasing the Manas airbase to the US – with the latter having beaten a much-critici...

Economic growth in 2Q23 slightly exceeded expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that the country's GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y in 2Q13. It was a flash estimate with no details. In a few weeks Rosstat will provide more color on 2Q23 economic growth, including nominal GDP numbers, including its sectoral structure, etc. Moreover, it may even update the aforementione...

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