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The South African government reiterates its stance of non-alignment committing to work with all countries for global peace and development as it concludes the 15th BRICS Summit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Aug 2023

Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there has been increased interest in the 15th BRICS summit that was held in South Africa this week. The possibility of Russia’s President Putin attending had of course resulted in increased risk aversion towards South Africa before it was clari...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Aug 2023

Aug 11 Turkmenistan: The authorities want to clarify a number of issues on the gas alliance of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan has started growing bananas on an industrial scale, and the first harvest is expected in six months Energy Ministry: Daily oil product...

The MPC acts bold, what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

In an encouraging and surprising move, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by a markedly more than expected 750 bps to 25%, versus a consensus expectation of 250 bps (see chart). That the decision came at the very first MPC meeting of the newly appointed deputies, also send the right signals. The...

The House approved the MP on minimum wage, the CAE approved the bill on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF, and the government should send a proposal to Congress today on the carbon credit market
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2023

The House approved the provisional measure (MP) that changes the individual tax table and increases the minimum wage. The measure will be put to a vote in the Senate today. Yesterday, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate approved the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote of the...

Russian airlines hugely evading sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2023

On August 23 Reuters published an article saying that customs data proves that Russia has bought over USD 1.2 billion of Western made spare parts. Reuters said that the true value of the imported spare parts is higher than the proven shipment because it excludes shipments to companies in Russia t...

The summer lull is almost over
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2023

With 7 months left until crucial municipal elections, the opposition is comatose, but AKP is still not guaranteed to reclaim big cities from CHP, thanks to rising economic frustration and the genuine popularity of some CHP candidates. President Erdogan’s larger dilemmas are all abroad. The eve...

Putin sacks aerospace forces chief
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2023

On August 23 Russian state media reported that Sergei Surovikin was dismissed. Surovkin was the head of the space forces. Surovikin disappeared after the June 2023 mutiny by the Wagner Group. The Kremlin said in late June 2023 that Surovikin was ''resting''. There has been no word of him since th...

The House voted on the fiscal framework yesterday, the House will vote on the minimum wage MP today, and the Senate CAE will vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2023

Yesterday, the House concluded voting on the fiscal framework. As anticipated, the deputies maintained the constitutional fund of the federal district and Fundeb exceptions in the text. Spending on science and technology will have to comply with the spending limit. Today, the House will vote on a...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
TURKEY · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 1 response

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Atilla Yesilada and our GCC analyst, Justin Alexander. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep Erdogan in p...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Aug 2023

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Justin Alexander and our Turkey political analyst, Atilla Yesilada. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep...

Wagner recruiting for missions for Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2023

On August 21 Yevgeny Prigozhin released a video on the Telegram social media channel calling for men to volunteer. He said that Wagner will ''make Russia even greater on all continents.'' He said it would liberate Africa. It is unclear where Prigozhin was when he made the video in a desert locati...

The House should vote on the fiscal framework today or tomorrow, the House may also vote on the minimum wage MP, and the Senate CCJ holds a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2023

Yesterday, after a meeting with leaders, the president of the House assured that the fiscal framework will be put to a vote this week in the House. The vote could take place today or tomorrow. The House may also vote on a provisional measure on the increase of the minimum wage and the changes to ...

Is there a big leap in electronics exports?
INDIA · Report · 22 Aug 2023

Most global firms want to do less in China. This has created possibilities for the global supply chain to shift away from China. This has raised hope for India in a “China+1” sourcing strategy for many global corporations. In the aggregate, the gains in FDI or merchandise exports are small. In...

Centrist parties hit by accusations; economy enters recession; BCRP to cut rates in October
PERU · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on the Peruvian political scene; on the country’s economic performance; and on the timing of the first Central Bank rate cut. We argue that, while political risk has eased, President Dina Boluarte remains isolated and unpopular. The political capital of the two ...

Agreement reached to create an opposition alliance for 2024 elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

Today the three main opposition parties of the Dominican Republic, PLD, FP and PRD, announced the creation of the opposition alliance Rescate RD (DR Rescue) to present common candidacies in the next 2024 elections. The agreement proposes 4 common candidacies to positions in the Senate of the Repu...

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