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Industry continues to expand in 4M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 May 2024

Rosstat reported that in 4M24 and April alone, industrial output grew y-o-y by 5.2% and 3.9%. Some y-o-y deceleration in April was, to some extent, an effect of an additional calendar day in February (leap-year effect). Going forward the magnitude of this effect will ease, and it looks as though ...

A new phase in the exchange rate regime
INDIA · Report · 30 May 2024

The INR exchange rate regime shifted into reduced flexibility in 2014. It is now possible to look back at the period from October 2022, and we see a new phase, with a tightly managed exchange rate and an almost fixed USD/INR exchange rate. It is not fully clear how this was implemented. The reduc...

Georgian Parliament overrides presidential veto of the foreign agent bill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2024

On May 28 as we predicted the vote went 84-4 in favor of the bill. This supermajority means that the bill becomes law. There were more than 4 deputies against the bill but most of them abstained. The president will be requested again to sign the bill. If she refuses (as is probable) then the spea...

Ukraine receives more arms donations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2024

On May 28 Zelensky was in Belgium, where he met the king and the prime minister. Belgium pledged 30 F16 jets. Some will be delivered by the end of 2024 and the rest by 2028. The two countries signed a bilateral security partnership. Belgium said the fighter jets must only be used in Ukraine. Ukra...

COPOM Watch: "The friendly ghost"
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2024

The finance minister recently complained about the “little ghosts” that are “getting into people's heads and harming our development plan.” Some have interpreted, rightly or wrongly, the minister's statement as a veiled attack on the Central Bank's Focus survey, suggesting that the rise in inf...

Encouraging growth
INDONESIA · Report · 29 May 2024

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2024 growth, at 5.11%, slightly above the 5.04% annual growth in Q4 2023. On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 0.83%, which followed the regular cycle. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2024 was public administration and defen...

The government was defeated in important vetoes yesterday, the House approved the Mover bill that ends the import tax exemption for international purchases, and the Tax Reform Working Group will have 17 public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2024

Yesterday, the government suffered symbolic defeats in Congress. President Lula's veto of the law that prohibited temporary release of prisoners to visit family members, known as “saidinhas”, was overridden. On the other hand, former President Jair Bolsonaro's veto was maintained against crimes a...

Same old story in April: a too strong tenge suppresses tax collection in 4Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance published the 4M24 budgetary statistics and it appears that the situation looks largely the same as in 2023. An excessively strong tenge (USD/KZT 443 at the time of writing) curtails the tax revenue collection. In the case of the republican budget (the core constituency in...

Economics: Persistent inflation in Mexico represents challenges for Banxico's monetary policy
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024

Last week two very relevant data items were released in terms of expectations for the reference rate for this year. These were the inflation figures for the first half of May and the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of May 9. Consumer inflation for the first half of May 2024 amounted to ...

Beijing's new property policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 May 2024

Beijing announced new property regulations designed to restart growth in the sector. These regulations include a central government lending program, along with lower interest rates for homebuyers. Unfortunately, these measures will have only a minimal impact on economic growth for two reasons: 1)...

Politics: Post-election scenarios—the governability challenges
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024

With the presidential, Chamber of Deputies, and Senate elections a week away, attention is already being focused on possible post-June 2 scenarios. With innumerable undefined factors at play, a post-election conflict is almost inevitable. If the race is close, whoever loses would likely challenge...

Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024

In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...

Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024

In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...

Brazil: Risks on The Rise
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2024

During the last couple of months the perception of Brazil's fiscal and monetary risks deteriorated significantly, a trend that has worsened further recently. Last week the government's overly optimistic projection for the primary balance in 2024 once again postponed the inevitable discussion of t...

Succession in the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2024

The government may announce measures aimed at restructuring the economy of Rio Grande do Sul. A second bill on Tax Reform regulation will be sent to the National Congress. The Ministry of Finance and the Senate may discuss compensation methods for payroll tax relief. This week's Talking Points...

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