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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

The approval of the fiscal framework and the first round of the tax reform have left “debts” that have been negotiated in a type of arm-wrestling match between Lula and Lira, with results increasingly favorable to the latter’s objectives, as expected. The retribution for the approvals has entaile...

Economics: GDP growth remained solid through 2Q, with robust secondary sector and GFI data
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

GDP growth remained solid through the first half of the year even as the second quarter expansion proved to be marginally less pronounced than analysts had projected and Inegi had calculated in the preliminary estimates it released at the beginning of August. First quarter GDP was also revised ma...

Musical chairs and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

The September 7 holiday will slow activity in Congress. The government submitted provisional measures on the taxation of exclusive funds and tax credits arising from the subsidy for the implementation or expansion of economic endeavors. President Lula travels to India for the G20 meeting. This...

Anemic Growth Outlook
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Sep 2023

For all of 2023, the Venezuelan economy is heading for the anemic growth rate of just 3 percent. Although, after seven continuous years of decline, GDP grew 13 percent in 2022, it lost steam in the second half of 2022 and, at the start of 2023, it faced headwinds. In the second quarter of this ...

August inflation back above 5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

Analysts had expected a higher inflation rate for August but the actual number, 5.3%, exceeded the median 4.9% forecast. The relatively sharp 1.1% month-on-month increase in prices can be traced largely to the 2.4% rise in food prices, reflecting notably a 4.9% increase in rice prices, the first ...

Putin meets Turkish President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

On September 4 he met Erdogan in Sochi, Russia. The meeting had originally been planned to take place in Turkey but the Russians insisted on hosting it. Erdogan wants to convince Putin to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Russia said it will only revive the deal if sanctions on Russia...

Ukrainian Defense Minister resigned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

On September 3 the announcement was made. This jars with Kyiv's recent boasts that it has broken through the Russian frontline in Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine boasted that the second and third lines were less formidable and Russia lacked reserves to stop the Ukrainian breakthrough. If Ukraine wer...

Good news from the ECB: no MNB recapitalisation is needed in 2024
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Finance Minister Varga announced this morning that the ECB endorsed the government's intention not to carry out any recapitalisation of the MNB in 2024, despite the expected occurrence of about HUF2000bn negative capital in the Bank's balance sheet at end-2023. According to the announcement, the ...

CBRT’s unenviable uphill battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near-double digit monthly rate of 9.1% in August (August 2022: 1.5%), significantly higher than consensus forecasts and our own, atop a 9.5% increase in July. The twelve-month rate rose sharply to almost 60% -- 58.9%, to be precise -- from 47.8% in July. Monthly PPI infl...

President Zelenskiy Replaces Minister of Defense to Ease Tensions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

The news about the replacement of Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov dominated the headlines yesterday. This serves as an excellent example of how the reputation of a corrupt country can have negative repercussions at the most inopportune times. Since the beginning of 2023, Oleksiy Reznikov has...

Rates remain on hold, but MPC concerned about further shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Rates remained steady at the September 4 meeting, with the BoI announcement noting that "Inflation is moderating, but is still above the target range, economic activity in Israel remains at a high level but a number of indicators point to some moderation in growth, the labor market remains tight ...

Wage pressure remains acute
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Wage pressure remains acute The average nominal wage increased by 6.0% y/y in June and by 6.2% in July (initial estimate). Trend data point to wage acceleration in the Q2 to an annual pace of 7.7%, especially in food and accommodation and manufacturing. The labor market remains tight (3% unemploy...

Gearing up for an eventful autumn
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2023

Putin finally granted Erdogan a summit in September, which bodes well for the future of “frenemy” relationship, but Erdogan’s hopes of midwifing a second grain deal are probably dead. At home, both alliances are negotiating already about local election alliances, which will be held in March 20...

Top Ukrainian oligarch arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

On September 2 Ihor Kolomoisky was arrested on suspicion of fraud and money laundering. He will be held in pre-trial detention for two months. He allegedly illegally sent USD 14 million abroad to other countries. Ukraine is eager to prove that it is cracking down on corruption. There is disquiet ...

A follow up to our monthly report: GDP and Moody's
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

Detailed GDP data for Q2 data was published and Moody's sovereign rating review took place on September 1, Friday. Two days earlier, we said in our monthly report that Moody's might move Hungary to Negative from Stable outlook, both attached to a Baa2 rating. We also said the Q2 GDP data may have...

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