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Prigozhin confirmed dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2023

On August 27 Russian authorities said a DNA examination of the 10 people who died when Prigozhin's plane crashed determined that he is among the dead. The Russian Civil Aviation Authority has been working very fast on its investigation and has recovered the black box. The other victims were mostl...

Losing momentum
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 Aug 2023

We are nudging down our forecast for this year from 5.5% to 5.2%. We had expected consumption to slow down as pent-up demand eased and inflation erodes purchasing power, but the government’s considerable 2Q spending underperformance was a surprise. Also, here as elsewhere, Chinese tourism disappo...

United States and China
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023

With the end of the pandemic, the Chinese and American economies are facing challenges. In the United States, the huge monetary and fiscal stimuli that boosted the economy have generated the highest inflation in the past 40 years, prompting the Federal Reserve to drastically tighten monetary poli...

Ministerial Reform may be finalized this week, the House should vote on the bill that extends the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate should vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023

With President Lula's return to Brazil after the BRICS meeting, Ministerial Reform may be finalized. The PP and Republicanos are waiting for a decision regarding which ministries they will be given, including the Ports and Airports, Science and Technology, Sports, and Social Development ministrie...

An unexpected second runner-up
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Aug 2023

While the presidential outcome that placed Daniel Noboa in second place in the first-round presidential election came as a surprise to virtually every Ecuadorian, the results obtained in the Assembly and its distribution were in line with our expectations. Four blocs will represent close to ...

Disrupting the corridor to Crimea
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The battle for the South remains a primary focus. As of this writing, Ukrainian forces are advancing at a measured pace, having breached the Russians' first line of defense, and are currently making progress through the main fortifications near Tokmak. To observers, this pace might seem underwhel...

Low inflation will allow the BoI to tolerate some shekel weakness
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Aug 2023

1. Recent economic indicators point to some deceleration, although the labor market remains tight. 2. We see upside risks to our inflation forecast, especially if the shekel continues to weaken. 3. Inflation moderation will support a rate-hold decision next week, but an October rate hike ca...

Low inflation will allow the BoI to tolerate some shekel weakness
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2023

Economic indicators have been mixed The BoI Composite Index increased modestly by 0.17%, slower than the pace in 2022, but somewhat faster than the pace earlier this year. Total revenues from the various branches contracted by0.7 % saar in Q2. Manufacturing declined by 1.8% saar with a 3.2% decli...

EU urges Kyrgyzstan not to help Russia bust sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2023

On August 24 a senior Member of the European Parliament visited Bishkek to meet the Kyrgyz President.Kyrgyzstan is the second poorest of the 15 former Soviet state. It has many guest workers in Russia. The economy has been battered by COVID, high energy prices and the fall of the RUB. Remittances...

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan dispute water
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Aug 2023

In July 2023 Kyrgyzstan reduced water flow to Kazakhstan. This has left beet farmers without sufficient water. Kyrgyzstan has said droughts have caused the reduced water level and that the temperature is unusually high even for summer. They note that Kyrgyz farmers have also suffered from an insu...

Wagner chief killed in plane crash
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2023

On August 25 the head of Wagner Private Military company was killed when his plane crashed in Russia. Russian authorities say the bodies of all 10 on board were found. Prigozhin and other Wagner commanders were listed on the manifest. Putin announced that Prigozhin is dead, and that Prigozhin had...

GULF WEEKLY: BRICS invites Saudi & UAE, UAE sees strong demand for T-sukuk, IMF concludes Kuwait Article IV
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * BRICS invited Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join (but not Kuwait and Bahrain, which also applied). * The UAE and Saudi Arabia sent Ukraine congratulations on its independence day. * Iran’s foreign minister said MBS has acce...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia revises GDP data, invites rethink of growth drivers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Aug 2023

Armenia is the first country in the CCA region that has reported a full set of detailed GDP data for the second quarter of the year. 2Q23 GDP grew by a robust 9.1 percent YoY, down from the 12.1 percent YoY print in 1Q23 and weaker than the 10.9 percent YoY number implied by the monthly economic ...

Deputy Santana submitted his report on the Desenrola program yesterday, the bill on payroll tax exemptions may be put to a vote next week, and the Senate should vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2023

Yesterday, Deputy Alencar Santana (PT-SP) submitted his report on the Desenrola program. As anticipated, he proposes a limit for debts, so that the interest and fees charged do not exceed the total amount of the debt. In the House, President Arthur Lira said that the bill on payroll tax exemption...

Kazakhstan Macro: Weaker Tenge Required
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the Kazakh economy continued to grow in 7M23, albeit unevenly across sectors. This growth was accompanied by decelerating inflation, which monthly rate varied from 0.5% to 0.6% since May and a similar m-o-m rate is expected in August. Hence the y-o-...

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