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Economics: Unabated tide of remittance inflows stokes consumption but super peso and inflation take their toll
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

One of the sources of income that explains the dynamism of consumption in Mexico at the end of 2022 and through the first half of 2023 is the level of remittances that have been flowing in from the United States, which as of June registered an 8.3% annual increase in US currency to total 5.57 bil...

Vote on the new fiscal framework and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

The House should vote on the new fiscal framework this week. In the Senate, the CARF bill should be put to a vote and the Tax Reform proposal should be discussed. President Lula participates in BRICS meetings and he should only make changes to his ministerial team after his return (27). This ...

GUATEMALA: New government, same challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

On August 20th, Bernardo Arevalo won the runoff presidential election with his party Semilla. He will be sworn as president for a four-year term in January 2024. This was the first time Arevalo, 64, fought for the presidency, which he achieved by beating former first lady Sandra Torres. Torres (6...

The (Mis)trust in the Quality of the Fiscal Framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

With the modifications made in the Senate, the text of the fiscal framework has returned to the Chamber of Deputies for approval, so the final wording is still unknown. Nevertheless, it is already known that the increase, in real terms, of primary spending (to occur in an interval between 0.6% an...

Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. Howev...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Aug 2023

This is a summary of key data releases and news in the CCA: *Armenia: Core inflation in July drops to lowest since early 2020. *Armenia: Bond market reacts nimbly to rate cuts. *Armenia: Remittances in June entrench trend of normalization to pre-2022 levels. *Azerbaijan: Central Bank relaxe...

Slowing inflation could delay further tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Aug 2023

1. Underlying inflation has moderated in recent months, pushing up the shekel depreciation threshold triggering a monetary response. 2. Second quarter GDP numbers point to deceleration. 3. There are growing signs of labor market slackness.

Mixed feelings about the fiscal figures of H1 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

This time around, the MNB reported the general government sector's net financing requirement, which tends to be a good proxy for the general government balance figure, the main policy indicator of fiscal performance for any given period. For H1, the latter is due for release only on October 3. Th...

Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa, the House should vote on the fiscal framework this week, and Sen. Alencar should submit his report on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

President Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa. He should only announce changes to the ministerial team after he returns to the country next Sunday (27). This week, the House may vote on the new fiscal framework. Today (21), Arthur Lira (PP-AL) has a meeting with the rapporteur, D...

Russian spacecraft crashes on the moon
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

On August 20 Luna-25 had a botched landing on the moon according to the Russian space agency (Roscosmos). Roscosmos lost contact with the craft. It is unclear what caused the problem. Luna-25 was scheduled to land on the moon on August 21. Roscosmos has growing problems due to being cut off from ...

A second electoral round with a huge surprise
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...

Zelensky visits Holland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

On August 20 Zelensky was in the Netherlands to thank the Dutch for the F16 fighter jets they are gifting to Ukraine. The planes will probably not arrive by the end of 2023. 11 European nations are training Ukrainians on F16s. Only the Netherlands and Denmark have pledged to donate F16s. The plan...

Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

On August 18 Li Shangfu ended a 4-day visit to Belarus and Russia. The aim of the trip was to deepen military ties. He met Putin, Lukashenko and the defense minister of both countries. Russian state media enthusiastically covered the visit. It proves that Russia is not alone in the world. Belarus...

Russian macro: the ruble - back to a normal trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023

After the Russian Central Bank hiked the key rate a few days ago, the ruble bounced back to the low USD/RUB 90s area, which currently seems a sort of comfortable equilibrium zone for the exchange rate. The CBR mentioned accelerating inflation as the main reason for the key rate hike, which seems ...

UN discusses Azerbaijani blockade of Armenian-held land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2023

On August 16 the UN Security Council discussed Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin Corridor. But it did not decide on action. The Red Cross has said that it urgently needs to deliver humanitarian aid. The UN wants this to resume. Lachin is critically short of medicine and food. The Armenian ambas...

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