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Q2 GDP slows to 4.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

We had expected economic growth to decelerate after Q1’s relatively robust 6.4% yoy expansion but the marked slowdown to 4.3%, reflecting a 0.9% seasonally-adjusted qoq contraction, is a surprise. Production numbers, from which GDP is estimated, showed lower growth rates in the three major sector...

Ukraine getting more tanks as Russia reactivates old models
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

On August 7 a Belgian businessman confirmed an EU country bought 49 old Leopard tanks from him as a gift to Ukraine. He will not say which country it is. Most of the tanks will be reanimated and the rest used for spare parts. It will take up to 6 months for the tanks to be operational. On August ...

FX passthrough on inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

The BoI Inflation Report for the 1st half of the year analyzes the inflationary trends and monetary policy for this period. The Report estimates that the judicial overhaul (domestic factors) contributed an additional 10% depreciation of the shekel. The BoI estimates that the FX passthrough on inf...

Fernando Villavicencio has been murdered
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Fernando Villavicencio, was a presidential candidate until today at 6 pm.  He was murdered with three bullets to his head perpetrated  by a hit person during a political meeting that was being held at an academic institution. He was the former head of the fiscalization committee in the Assembly a...

Monthly current account surplus continues to narrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

The CBR published an estimate of some parameters of the 7M23 balance of payments. The current account surplus accounted for $1.8bn and $25.2bn in July and 7M23, implying that its monthly value continued to narrow. In 1Q23 and 2Q23, the current surplus accounted for $14.8 bn and $8.6 bn. The trade...

The new fiscal framework will not be put to a vote this week, the Economic Development Committee of the House discusses payroll tax exemptions, and the Joint Committee on the minimum wage approved the text’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2023

As expected, the fiscal framework will not be put to a vote this week. But it should be scheduled for next week. The rapporteur, Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), said there will be a meeting with government technicians to discuss the text on Monday, August 14. Haddad will also have a meeting at 5 pm with ...

Corporate survey indicates continued growth with signs of moderation ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Corporate survey indicates continued growth with signs of moderation ahead The Business Sector Tendency Survey indicates continued expansion of economic activity. Basically, there is a problem of the lack of seasonal adjustment in the series of the survey. With that, the current activity componen...

The budget deficit remains moderate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

Minfin reported that in 7M23, the federal budget deficit reached R2.8 trln. It was slightly up from R2.6 trln in 1H23. In 4M23 and 5M23, the budget deficit was higher (over R3.0 trln) as this year, the government allocated budgetary expenditures spending in a rather unusual fashion, having spent ...

Politics and banking dominate Jamaica’s headlines as silly season begins early
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

In Jamaica, the month of July before the normal August holidays was extremely busy, with the headlines dominated by news in politics. The kick off for the current political near-frenzy was actually the end of June, when an opinion poll released by the Opposition Peoples National Party (PNP) claim...

The House still has not voted on the new fiscal framework, the LDO also has not yet been put to a vote in Congress, and former Secretary of Public Security Anderson Torres testifies at the CPMI on the January 8 attacks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Due to the lack of a decision in the House regarding the vote on the new fiscal framework, the federal government authorized the early inclusion of conditional expenses in the 2024 Budget in the Budgetary Guidelines Bill (PLDO). The LDO has not yet been put to a vote in Congress and is being disc...

Economics: Recurring incidents at installations, ratings downgrades underscore the continuing deterioration of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Pemex has been the subject of considerable attention from national and international analysts and the news media due to a series of accidents and other events at its facilities and to decisions by Fitch to downgrade Pemex's debt and Moody's to lower its outlook on the company’s securities from st...

July inflation data matched analysts' median forecast exactly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

This means 0.3% mom, 17.6% yoy as for the headline rate (see our previous note on the subject yesterday). Positively, core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 17.5% yoy, so it is now slightly below the headline rate. Non-fuel inflation fell to 17.2% yoy, as fuel prices rose by 21.5% over the past twelve...

Israeli saving institutions continue to purchase FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

Israeli savings institutions continue to increase their FX exposure. In June institutions (total sector: pension, insurance, provident funds) increased their exposure to 19.9% of all assets under management from 19.2% last month (16.5% in Dec 22). They increased their exposure to foreign assets t...

Politics: The current administration’s overhaul of social policy has left many of the poorest households without coverage
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Everything indicates that economic growth rather than different social policy programs has been the main factor explaining poverty reduction in Mexican society over the past seven decades. The 6% average GDP growth of the "Mexican Miracle’s" period of stabilizing development from the 50s to the 7...

Ministerial team changes likely ahead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week. On Friday, August 11, he launches the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC). Before that, he will participate in the Amazon Summit, in Pará. Senator Eduardo Braga will be formally selected as the rapporteur for Tax Reform. On Thursday...

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