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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...

Pacheco and Haddad found no solution to the payroll tax issue, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, and three ministers will attend a panel at Davos about the energy transition in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), met with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The meeting ended without a solution to the issue. Yesterday, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, Santiago Peña. They discussed the ...

A record of over 9 million tourists is expected to have visited in 2023 as Bahamas repays its Eurobond
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The Bahamas tourism-driven recovery accelerated in the second half of last year, with international flight and cruise arrivals rising well above their pre-pandemic levels. Bahamas is now expecting well over 9 million tourists to have visited during the calendar year of 2023 once December numbers ...

What Explains 2023 Growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

It is becoming increasingly clear that growth in 2023 was not due to increased potential GDP. Despite seducing influential observers, the narrative that Brazil is reaping the benefits of the maturing of past reforms cannot withstand the clear evidence that only actual GDP has been rising, derived...

The first problems of 2024 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Even with the congressional recess, the discussion about payroll tax relief continues behind the scenes. States and the Federal Government are working on regulating Tax Reform. Data we compiled shows that, despite the difficulties he has faced, President Lula maintains a considerable level of sup...

December’s CPI surprised on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Jan 2024

1. Inflation surprised on the downside in December; core inflation moderated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We have revised our inflation forecast upward due to the weaker shekel and higher taxation as part of fiscal accommodation. 3. This week, markets will follow closely the credibility of the fiscal ...

South Africa’s year of national elections: the ANC’s pre-election January 8 statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Amidst what is likely to be the toughest year since taking power in South Africa after the fall of the apartheid government for the African National Congress (ANC), President Ramaphosa, who is both President of the governing ANC and the Republic, delivered the ANC’s customary January 8 Statement,...

Exchange rates matter now more than ever
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

In 2023, the Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) sharpened its focus on taming the exchange rate. In the fourth quarter, which is when public outlays tend to be strongest, the BCV supplemented active exchange rate intervention with close monitoring of bank exchange operat...

Charter change: Game changer in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

It started with one ad that made the rounds of television networks, calling for a change in some provisions of the 1987 Philippine Constitution. Repudiating the 1986 People Power Revolution that ended the elder Marcos's dictatorship, the message was that progress in the Philippines was stalled be...

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration. On January 15th, Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala for a four-year period. The delays were a consequence of the declaration of the 23 legislators of the Semilla Par...

Inflation in December surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Inflation in December surprises on the downside Inflation declined by 0.1% m/m and moderated to 3.0% y/y from 3.3% last month (expectations were for 3.1% y/y). Core inflation moderate to 2.7% y/y from 2.9%. Seasonally adjusted CPI in the past three months slowed to an annual rate of 1.5% from 2.3...

United Nations asks for USD 4.2 billion in aid for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

On January 15 the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNCHA) asked for this amount in humanitarian aid. This is to provide for people in Ukraine and for Ukrainians who have fled abroad. 40% of the Ukrainian population is dependent on aid. Over 6 million Ukrainians are refugees...

An exceptionally weak figure for construction in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Construction output fell by 2.6% mom, 12.8 yoy in November, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, of course. This looks exceptionally weak, after 0.3% yoy positive growth in October and -1.1% yoy in Q3. Importantly, the bulk of this weakness is conveniently explained by a major negative base effe...

Oil workers' strike in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024

On January 5 oil workers for a Chinese owned company called Velikaya Stena went on strike in Manghystau Region. They want lay-offs to be reversed and they demand higher salaries and fair working conditions. The strikes are in Aqtau. They have requested the president to mediate. Other oil transpor...

PKK raid, Istanbul race, falling reserves
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2024

AKP nominated former Environmental and Urban Affairs Minister Murat Kurum to challenge Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who seems significantly ahead in early poll data. Yet, Erdogan’s massive propaganda advantage and the strategies of pro-Kurdish party DEM may yet result in surprises. Meanwhile, g...

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