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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Building plans amid the fog of war
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jul 2023

The counteroffensive did not yield significant gains in terrain for two months, sparking discussions about the operation's lackluster progress. However, measuring the progress of the counteroffensive solely in terms of square kilometers of liberated land is not the right approach. The Russians ha...

No surprise from the Monetary Council today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Fully in line with analysts' widespread expectation, the Council decided to reduce the O/N deposit rate by 100 bps, to 15% today. Simultaneously, the repo rate was cut to 17.5%. The base rate remained unchanged at 13%. By meeting the unanimous analyst expectation, the Council actually met two of ...

Discussions on Tax Reform continue, Lira called for support for Administrative Reform, and Haddad confirmed that the government is looking into ending the Interest on Own Capital (JCP)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Despite the congressional recess, the discussions on Tax Reform continue behind the scenes. Yesterday, at the Business Leadership Group (Lide) event in São Paulo, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that he plans to discuss the complementary bills provided for by the Tax Reform Constitu...

Armenia: June GDP data consistent with our upgraded 9.0 percent GDP forecast for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

The June short-term economic indicator has lost some vigor. The June short-term economic indicator, released by the Statistical Office today, grew by 6.8 percent YoY (Graph 1). This is sizably lower than its May read of 13.7 percent YoY, although the 2Q23 GDP print, calculated as the average of t...

Economics: Private consumption of services and imports is high as domestic goods continue to take a beating from forex effect
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Last week Inegi released its preliminary private consumption index (IOCP) for May and June and its retail and wholesale sales indexes for May, while the national retail industry association Antad published its store sales results for June the previous week. Those reports show that private consump...

Special Brief: Notes from NYC visits
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Introduction and Summary The politics author (from now on I) has spent last week in NYC, visiting members of our GSP audience in the company of my NY office colleagues. In three days, we visited 10 institutions, speaking to another 12 in a luncheon hosted by Standard Chartered Bank, for which I’m...

Azerbaijan: June macro data confirms lackluster economic performance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

The set of key macroeconomic indicators released by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan in June confirms disappointing economic performance so far in the year. Preliminary data just released by the central bank indicates that 1H23 GDP barely eked out a positive growth of 0.5 percent YoY Ytd, down from...

Georgia: Remittances on a steady downpath
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

In June, net monetary inflows inched down to US$324mn. This is slightly down on the US$357mn print in May, but significantly off the peak of US$500mn peak recorded in Dec 2022 (Graph 1). At the same time, net monetary inflows continue to run at levels that are about twice the pre-2022 pace. Graph...

Russia attacks Ukrainian Danube ports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

On July 24 Russian drones hit the grain storage facilities on the longest river in Europe. The drones used are allegedly Iranian-made Shaheds. 3 out of the 15 drones used were destroyed. Ukraine has weak air defense in this area, which up until now has not been targeted. 4 people were injured in ...

Judicial measure passes resulting in market volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the Israeli parliament passed the bill to cancel the reasonableness standard, the first part of a planned judicial overhaul. The bill passed by a vote of 64-0 in the Knesset. All opposition lawmakers walked out as the vote was taking place. The bill takes away the Supreme Court’s power...

Kazakhstan macro: Economy likely to grow over 5% in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 24 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's GDP may grow by over 5.0%, and domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. One can expect a strong increase in investment activity given the need for the country to diversify its geographical structure of foreign trade. An inflow of foreign capital will support this. ...

Politics: Xóchitl vaults into the lead for the opposition nomination but major obstacles lurk ahead
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2023

As we have noted in recent weeks, Xóchitl Gálvez’s decision to jump into the race to become the opposition presidential candidate has shaken up a contest that had already started to evolve thanks to the efforts of civil society groups and others that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets...

In search of revenue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

This week's Talking Points: In search of revenue: The Ministry of Finance is working on a series of instruments to increase tax collection. Some matters are already in progress in the National Congress, others should be sent in August, and others should await the completion of Tax Reform, c...

Execution Of The “Fiscal Framework”: The First Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

According to estimates by the National Treasury, to achieve the target of a null primary result in 2024, it will be necessary to obtain additional revenue of R$ 160 billion. The Treasury also estimates that even if this additional revenue is not attained, the gross debt will stabilize at 81% of G...

This is the final week of recess, Petrobras is expected to disclose its new dividend payment policy, and the PP and Republicanos should be given one ministry each
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

This is the final week of recess for the judiciary and legislature, which resume their activities on Tuesday of next week. But some matters deserve attention in the coming days. Petrobras is expected to disclose its new dividend payment policy to shareholders. The company is expected to pay less ...

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