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Topic of the week: The three intractable issues that could still torpedo a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jul 2023

Due to some travelling plans, we are issuing our Caucasus and Central Asia Weekly earlier rather than later in the week. While we have focused in recent publications on core macro issues in the region related to growth, external positions and currencies, we now veer away from the beaten path and ...

Markets will react to the judicial legislation developments this week
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Jul 2023

1. Markets will react today to the judicial legislation developments and possible compromise. 2. The labor market is showing initial signs of slack, with the number of employed declining in June. 3. The BoI Composite Index of the economy is pointing to steady growth on strong exports and cr...

Sterilisation rate is expected to drop to 15% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

The Monetary Council is set to meet tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll unanimously expect a 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the effective sterilisation rate, to 15% on this occasion. The poll's median expectation for December is 10.5%, based on the generally shared optimistic fo...

Moscow and Crimea hit by Ukrainian drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

On July 24 Russia announced that Ukrainian drones hit two buildings in Moscow. One of them was close to the Defense Ministry. It is not known what the target was. Russia said it show down the drones, and they hit buildings while falling. Until 2023 Ukrainian drones had not reached Moscow. It is w...

The markets will react to the legislation developments this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

The markets will react the legislation developments this week 24.7.23 The financial markets are optimistic regarding a compromise Last week witnessed an upward correction in local markets, including the bond market and FX. This could reflect an expectation for a positive compromise on the judicia...

Russia attacks Ukrainian ports with missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2023

On July 12 Odesa was hit for the fifth consecutive day. It is the biggest port in Ukrainian hands. Russia ended the Black Grain Initiative on July 19. It seems that Russia is trying to make it impossible for Ukraine to export grain even without the BSGI. There has been talk of the ships of neutra...

Waiting for the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2023

This is another econ-only report, as the politics author is in transit after holding several rounds of meetings in New York, which he will report on, among other things, during the week. Consumer confidence dropped sharply again in July, owing to TL weakness and as the effect of pre-election s...

Marcos 2.0: Year 2 to-dos
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2023

When Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. assumed power at the end of June last year, we listed five areas where the new administration needed to take fire-fighting stances to speed up post-pandemic recovery. These were: (a) battling inflation and putting fiscal consolidation on more solid footing to ensure mac...

GULF WEEKLY: Turkey and Tunisia get Gulf aid, Kuwait plans a new SWF, Bahrain’s GDP is weak in Q1, Oman merges pension funds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * ADQ pledged to buy $8.5bn in Turkish sukuk, driving a rally, as part of a wider package of UAE deals. * Tunisia received $500m in grant and loan pledges from Saudi Arabia, boosting its bonds.o * Saudi Arabia signed a larg...

The Republicanos and the PP will likely be given positions in the ministerial team, the government should submit a bill on sports betting, and Haddad met with Lira to discuss the agenda for the second semester
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2023

This week ends without a determination regarding Ministerial Reform. In Brasilia, the fact that the Republicanos and the PP will be given a ministry is being taken for granted. But President Lula is still trying to choose which ministry. In the coming days, the government also intends to submit t...

Topic of the week: Lifting CCA growth forecasts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Jul 2023

Strong early 2023 economic showing in the Caucasus and Central Asia warrants a review of our already more constructive view on GDP growth in the region. Indeed, average GDP growth inched down to 6.8 percent in 1Q23 from 7.8 percent in 4Q22, and remained virtually flat if one were to exclude Azer...

China’s "schizophrenic" economic policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2023

The People’s Daily on July 20 published a policy statement issued July 14 by the Party’s Central Committee calling for promotion of the private sector. The statement was entitled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on promoting the development ...

US sanctions Kyrgyzstan for helping Russia evade sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2023

On July 21 the US announced that sanctions were being imposed on 120 companies in Kyrgyzstan and Russia. The United States said that the Kyrgyz companies had helped Russia to circumvent sanctions. The US is trying to cut off Russian access to raw materials, manufactured goods and financing. The c...

Another warning from the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

It is always difficult to tell what causes any particular move by currency exchange rates. But as regards the forint's most recent weakening against both EUR and USD over the last two days, it can be rather safely said that a new warning from the EU's budget commissioner Johannes Hahn played some...

A matter of words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a less than expected 250 bps today (vs. a median forecast of about 500 bps hike) to 17.5% (see chart), but broadly in line with our expectations (of some 200-300 bps hike). Recall that we’ve been working with the assumption of the MPC ge...

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