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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The current account narrows in 2Q23 but could widen in 3Q23 amid a weaker ruble, while the latter will support budgetary revenue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

The CBR reported that Russia's current account surplus narrowed to $5.4 bn in 2Q23 from $20.2 bn in 1Q23. The regulator also mentioned that in June alone, the current account surplus turned negative. Note, that these data are very preliminary and will be revised in the future. Nonetheless the 2Q2...

Russia tries to persuade emigrants to come home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

In 2022 over 700,000 Russians emigrated. There were others who left and have already returned to Russia. Most of those who left the country were young men seeking to evade conscription. The men who emigrated are mostly highly educated. They can easily work abroad and are more likely to be anti-wa...

Senator Eduardo Braga will be the rapporteur for Tax Reform in the Senate, the proposal will likely change in the Senate, and the government reached an agreement on the sanitation framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2023

The rapporteur for the Tax Reform proposal in the Senate was chosen—Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM). He guarantees that the Senate will approve the proposal, but also recognizes that there will be changes to the text. The likelihood of changes in the text is high. For the text to be enacted, it mu...

Erdogan greenlights Sweden’s NATO membership, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

Turkey’s ever-so-inscrutable leader Erdogan staged another phenomenal U-turn greenlighting Sweden’s NATO membership after a summit with Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson. Turkish parliament is scheduled to ratify Swedish accession in a few days. On the face of it, two critical steps by S...

Political scene remains uncertain; El Niño introduces downside risk; we retain our call for an August rate cut
PERU · Report · 11 Jul 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we focus on three main topics. First, we discuss the expected busy political calendar for July. On July 19th, left-wing organizations and parties are planning a march into Lima, similar that of January 28th. On July 26th, Congress will elect its new president and board. And on Jul...

Armenia: Net remittances grind to a halt in May
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Jul 2023

Net monetary inflows from abroad fell significantly in May.  Net inflows tripled to around US$300mn per month last year as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, but Jan to May data so far in the year is already indicating a return to pre-2022 levels (Graph 1). A breakdown of the inflows is showing ...

Centrão parties want more space in the government, Haddad will meet with Pacheco to discuss Tax Reform, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks will hear from Mauro Cid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2023

The pressure from the Centrão parties for more space in the government has increased. The change of command at the Ministry of Tourism is certain. Other positions are also being targeted, such as the Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Sports, and the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, a...

Politics: De facto presidential candidate selection process advances, race tightens up
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Now that the opposition coalition and civil society groups worked out the basic rules for the process of choosing their future presidential nominee over recent weeks and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez jumped into the race, the Broad Opposition Front has begun to gain the sort of traction that eluded it f...

Economics: FDI sustains positive trajectory but the country is failing to fully reap the benefits of nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has performed favorably during the current administration, and its potential can increase if appropriate measures are taken to attract nearshoring investment. It is important to consider, however, that although the nearshoring phenomenon has been recurrently mentio...

Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023

Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel The Bank of Israel decided to maintain policy rates stable at 4.75%, stressing that present rates are already restrictive enough. The decision was supported by the lower-than-expected CPI in May and resulting deceleration of inflation (...

The next steps for Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess. Few relevant topics are on the agenda. The Tax Reform proposal should be sent to the Senate this week, as well as the CARF bill. Senators are waiting for a new decree from President Lula on the sanitation framework. This week's T...

Global Inflation and Slower Growth: Consequences For Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

The pandemic was an unprecedented event that triggered a wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, together leading to an outbreak of inflation around the world. The United States and the Euro Zone, which together account for almost 40% of global GDP, established fiscal stimulus actions that...

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess, a session of Congress was scheduled to vote on presidential vetoes, and President Lula will travel to Brussels on Saturday to attend a meeting between the CELAC and the EU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

This is the last week of activity in the National Congress before the recess. Since the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was not put to a vote, members of Congress will have an informal recess. A session of Congress is scheduled for Wednesday, July 12, to analyze presidential vetoes. An agreement betw...

Difficulties after restoring pre-pandemic conditions
INDIA · Report · 10 Jul 2023

We are now able to assemble a picture of the post-pandemic recovery based on four business cycle indicators: listed company net sales, listed company operating profit, exports and bank credit. At first, there was a powerful post-pandemic recovery, but after February/March 2022, there has been a s...

We are leaning towards a rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jul 2023

1. We see a 60% probability of a rate hike today. Sticky service price inflation, a tight labor market, wage pressure, a weaker shekel and fairly steady growth will support further tightening. 2. Politics continue to impact markets, as the coalition presses forwards with cancelling the “reas...

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