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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: A presidential campaign that wasn’t as MC’s García bid implodes, providing some breathing space for Xóchitl
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2023

The late October decision by Nuevo León Governor Samuel García to act on his presidential nomination from the MC party and begin campaigning for the country’s highest office sparked a seemingly farcical series of events that, in retrospect, appear to have been entirely predictable. At least for t...

The 11M23 federal budget surplus narrows before the December spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the 11M23 federal budget deficit narrowed to R878 bn from R1.235 trln in 10M23. The deficit’s peak was recorded in 4M23, at R3.049 trln. As monthly spending moderated since then, while revenue growth accumulated strength since May, the monthly budget balance ...

Zelensky in Argentina
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

On December 11 Zelensky went to Argentina for the inauguration of President Milei. Milei has come out as an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause. Zelensky held meetings with the presidents of 3 other Latin American countries.  Sympathy for Russia is greater in Latin American than in Europe. Some...

Tax Reform may be put to a vote in the plenary this week, Congress will review presidential vetoes, and the CCJ should hold confirmation hearings for Dino and Gonet
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

According to the rapporteur of Tax Reform in the House, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), intends to put the text to a vote in the plenary this week. In other legislative issues, a session in Congress is scheduled for Thursday, December 14, to anal...

The trajectory of listed vs. unlisted companies—the gap in performance has subsided
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Over longer time horizons, there was a broad parity between the performance of listed and unlisted companies. However, in 2012, a gap opened up between the two, with superior performance by the unlisted firms. We review the period from 2012/13 to 2022/23, using large datasets of listed and unlist...

The BoI signals that fiscal policy is an increasing concern
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Dec 2023

1. The fiscal deficit widened to 3.4% GDP LTM; maintaining credibility in 2024 (and beyond) will be key for markets as well as for the MPC. 2. Business sentiment improved modestly in November but still reflects contraction going forward, while consumer confidence has rebounded. 3. Israeli ...

Good-bye Sweden, hello Greece, please EU, please
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

I’m writing this Market Brief at 13:00 Istanbul time on Monday. The time stamp is very important, because the shelf-life on the product is probably no more than 24 hours. Alas, Dear Reader, while Erdogan displays uncharacteristic resolve in orthodox economic policy, his foreign policy is all over...

The BoI signals that fiscal policy is an increasing concern
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Israel is continuing its ground offensive into the more southern part of Gaza, while missiles into Israel continue but have declined sharply. Sporadic low-level hostilities continue in the North. Domestically, most limitations on activity in Israel have been lifted, except for sports...

Good inflation figure reported for November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2023

The KSH published the November CPI-inflation data yesterday. We skipped the day without releasing a note on it for two reasons: 1) Essentially everything came out as expected; and 2) The Hungarian analyst was busy surviving the first few days of his now regular once-a-year hit from Covid, apparen...

November inflation: BSP at a crossroads?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Dec 2023

Early last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the November 2023 headline inflation rate, and it must have caused early holiday rejoicing to both the Philippines’ National Government (NG) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). At 4.1%, last month’s inflation rate is the 3...

Azerbaijan and Armenia exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2023

On December 7 the countries released some prisoners of war. They published a statement saying they will enact measures to build mutual confidence and that they both hope for permanent peace. It mentioned territorial integrity, which Azerbaijan understands to mean that Armenia recognizes Nagorno-K...

Putin announces he will run for president in 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2023

On December 8 he made the announcement, flanked by soldiers who had served in the Ukraine War. We predicted this earlier that day. He announced his candidacy at an award ceremony for war veterans. At the ceremony Putin was requested to seek re-election by the governor of one of the Russian occupi...

Webinar replay: Latin America in 2024 - Another big year
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Dec 2023

Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico look on track to finish the year among the top three best performing FX and rates markets in EM in 2023. Can this be sustained in 2024, when political developments are set to be crucial in driving sentiment and asset prices across the region? Visit our calendar page ...

The government hopes to finalize the vote on the ICMS subsidy next week, a session of Congress is scheduled to analyze presidential vetoes, and the Copom will meet for the last time this year to decide on the Selic rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2023

Next week, the government hopes to conclude the vote on provisional measure (MP) 1185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy. The rapporteur, Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), included the Interest on Own Capital (JCP) changes in the text. A session of the National Congress is also scheduled fo...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A softer hand in pressuring Central Asia to limit exports to Russia may be delivering some (modest) payoffs
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Dec 2023

David O'Sullivan, who was appointed last December as the international special envoy for the implementation of EU sanctions, visited Astana and Tashkent last week. This was his third trip to Central Asia this year following his visits in March to Kyrgyzstan and in April to Kazakhstan. The visits ...

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