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China’s “shock therapy”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Oct 2023

China’s two largest property developers this week have said they are on the verge of default. China Evergrande faced a government cancellation of its restructuring plan for $19 billion of international bonds that investors say could lead to a collapse of the company. Meanwhile, Country Garden has...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2023

Despite all the efforts of monetary authorities, the exchange rate remains volatile. Until recently, the ruble was trading around $/R100 with significant intraday fluctuations. The ruble remained at this level despite the recent widening of the current account surplus. According to CBR statistics...

Putin in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2023

On October 12 Putin arrived in Bishkek for the two-day visit. It is because of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit. The CIS comprises 9 former Soviet republics. This is Putin's first trip to another country since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for ...

Zelensky in Romania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2023

On October 10 Zelensky visited Romania for the first time since the war began. He thanked Romania for its military and humanitarian support. He met the President of Romania. The two held a joint press conference. Controversially, he was not allowed to address parliament; some Romanian politicians...

The Tax Reform rapporteur has once again postponed the submission of his report, the CAE held a series of public hearings on Tax Reform, and the TSE suspended the adjudication of Bolsonaro’s cases until October 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2023

The Senate Tax Reform rapporteur, Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), has postponed the submission of his report once again. The report was scheduled to be submitted on October 20, but should now be delivered on October 24. Despite the optimism surrounding Tax Reform, a delay in the schedule is a possibility...

The dog that didn't bark: a new mining contract without changes in the financial conditions
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2023 · 1 response

The Cabinet approved a revision of the original contract between the Nation and Minera Panama yesterday, following a five-to-four vote against the initial version in the Commerce Committee of the National Assembly last month. Among the modifications included in the recent draft, the main topics t...

Russia fails to regain seat on UN Human Rights Council
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2023

On October 10 the vote was held in the UN General Assembly. Russia was voted off it in March 2022. Russia won 83 votes out of 193, which is better than anticipated. Its votes probably came almost exclusively from the Global South. Western countries cited a missile attack on Groza, Ukraine, that K...

Russian macro: economic growth to moderate in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Oct 2023

The country’s economic situation appears decent, as Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.2% y-o-y in 8M23. This indicator is a kind of monthly proxy of economic activity, as it covers over 50% of GDP and comprises industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and tra...

Current account widens in 3Q23 as income balance turns less negative
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2023

CBR published its preliminary estimate of the 9M23 balance of payments, including some monthly numbers. The current account and the trade surpluses widened in September to $9.6 bn and $13.1bn from $5.7 bn and $11.0 bn in August. In July, these surpluses were much narrower ($1.3 bn and $6.1 bn). I...

Economics: Soaring automotive shipments contrast with softening of other manufactured exports, while the super peso stoked demand for imports
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Mexico’s strong export performance through August of this year is primarily explained by the extent to which automotive exports continue to grow in response to robust US private consumption, especially the extent to which consumers are snapping up cars and trucks following a period of major short...

Politics: An innovative, quantitative approximation of the number of people each cartel employs in Mexico, rate of turnover/recruitment
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

An article by analysts Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli and the late Alejandro Hope that appears in the magazine Science assesses the scale and dimensions of Mexican cartels. While conducting a sophisticated analysis that estimates the cartels' population size—roughly 175,000 people wo...

Congress vs. the STF and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

This will be a slow week in the Legislature. In addition to the holiday (Children's Day), Arthur Lira will travel to India and China with party leaders. The offshore taxation bill begins to block the agenda in the House on Saturday, October 14. This week the terms of two more advisors at the Admi...

Haddad travels to Marrakech today, Lira travels to China, and the TSE will analyze whether former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) committed abuse of political power in the 2022 elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, leaves for Morocco today, October 10. During his trip, he will speak with other economic authorities about the department's main points of interest. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), travels to China and India along with party leaders to pa...

Year-on-year CPI-inflation sharply down in September, but nothing unexpected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2023

The yoy headline rate dropped to 12.2%, from 16.4% in August. This was essentially due to a large friendly base effect, as the impact of last summer's energy price reform had just fallen out of the formula. The monthly inflation rate was still 0.4%, so not at all negligible. Core inflation looked...

Interest Rates in the United States and the Consequences in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Against a backdrop of a still heated economy and tight labor market, the indication that the interest rate will remain “higher for longer” in the US does not exclude the possibility of further elevation. The resilience of the American economy to the Fed’s tighter monetary policy is a consequen...

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