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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia expanding military 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

On December 1 Putin signed a presidential decree about this saying the expansion was needed due to the threat from Ukraine and NATO's ''aggressive activity'' seeking more members. The decree says there shall be no amendments to the draft system. There was a huge draft in 2022 of men who had alrea...

Self-rated poor families, a rising trend?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

While the Philippines surpassed the dismal 2nd quarter 4.3% GDP growth with a 5.9% performance in the 3rdquarter, the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from September 28-October 1, 2023 suggest the fruits of economic growth may not be spreading around evenly. Se...

GDP grew 8.8% up to June. Our forecasts remain positive but lower for 2023. 2024 will be a quasi-stagnant economy after the closing of the mining operation
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023 · 2 responses

The GDP growth rate until June reached 8.8%. For now, without knowing the complete GDP data, which has not been published by the statistical institute, we maintain our annual forecast at 5.5% due to a deceleration in the third quarter and disruptions in agricultural production, tourism, and the C...

Kazakhstan macro: Solving the budgetary puzzle
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published a complete set of budgetary statistics for 10M23, which included the republican budget, combined budgets of the regions, the National Fund, and the consolidated budget. The republican budget is the cornerstone of the country’s public finances not only du...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, Gaza ceasefire ends, Bahrain loses positive outlook, UAE launches $30bn climate fund
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The market was underwhelmed by extended OPEC+ cuts. * Saudi production in Q1 will be flat, UAE will rise by 1% and Kuwait and Oman will fall by -5%. * The Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza ended today after a week, with Is...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2023

* The war in Ukraine has slowed to a near stalemate. * Western arms shipments to Ukraine are decreasing. * Western leaders visit Kyiv but show little progress on EU accession. * Kazakhstan hosted the presidents of France and Russia.

Next week the Senate will discuss the appointments to the CADE, and the STF should review the case regarding the State-Owned Companies Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Next week will likely be busy in Brasília, even though the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), are attending the Climate Conference of Nations Nations (COP28), in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. In the Senate, the Economic Aff...

2024 Caucasus/Central Asia Outlook: Less growth, less risk
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 01 Dec 2023

We anticipate 2024 will bring, unsurprisingly, lower, if still robust, growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Yet, more surprisingly, along with lower growth, we also foresee less risk. Economic growth in the region has been steadily diminishing from the peak of 11.6 percent YoY in 2Q21 to 5...

Two short stories: EU funds and detailed GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023

1. Free Europe and Népszava (an opposition daily newspaper in Hungary) have reported in unison, referring to unnamed sources in Brussels, that the EU Commission is now expected to unfreeze the €10.5bn worth of 2021-2027 cohesion funds which are currently blocked only by their requirements regardi...

Russia bans international LGBT movement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023

On November 30 the Supreme Court ruled that the gay rights movement is extremist and therefore illegal. Involvement in such an organization can lead to 6 years in jail. The Orthodox Church welcomed the Supreme Court's judgement.  Any form of advocacy for gay rights is now illegal. Encouragement o...

Hungary will block talks on Ukrainian EU membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023

On November 30 the Hungarian Prime Minister's office stated that it would be wrong to open such talks while Ukraine is engaged in a full-scale war. Hungary is a neighbor of Ukraine. There is an indigenous Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Hungary is more pro-Russian than most EU states and has secur...

Anemic growth, signs of rebalancing
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2023

The Turkish economy grew by 5.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, broadly in line with expectations, while in working-day and seasonally adjusted (WDSA) terms, growth slowed visibly to 0.3%, q/q, after surging in the previous quarter, which, incidentally, has been revised down slightly to ...

Giving it all away, while infuriating everybody
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

President Gustavo Petro’s talk about “an economic storm” tries to obscure the true problem Colombia will face for the rest of his administration: an upcoming fiscal storm, caused by factors other than those he cites. Blaming the Fiscal Rule, the Constitutional Court ruling, or the IMF loan repaym...

Russia attends OSCE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2023

On November 29 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) held its summit in North Macedonia. It was a success for Russia that it was able to send its delegation headed by its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.  Some members of the OSCE were so unhappy about Russian attendance t...

The Senate approved offshore funds bill, the vote on the sports betting bill was postponed, the Tax Reform rapporteur may present a voting schedule, and Deputy Forte has not yet submitted his final report on the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2023

The Senate concluded the vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill. As there was no change in the text that was approved in the House, it will now go on for presidential sanction. Regarding the online sports betting bill, no agreement was reached. Today, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), rapp...

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