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GULF WEEKLY: Iran-GCC diplomatic blitz, Kuwait forms new cabinet, Qatar-China LNG deal, Hajj pilgrim numbers double
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE and Qatar reopened their embassies as the Gulf détente continues. * Iran’s foreign minister visited UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait and hosted the Saudi minister in Tehran. * Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, ro...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

The CBR decided to keep the key rate unchanged (at 7.5%) earlier in Jun but sent a hawkish signal to the market. The latter lifted the OFZ yield curve higher. The 10-year papers are now traded above 11%. The last time this level was in the spring of 2022. Many investors see a threat of potential ...

The rapporteur for Tax Reform submitted his report on the text, next week will be slow in Congress, and the TSE should adjudicate the case against former President Bolsonaro next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), submitted his report. He said that Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal by July 7. The text did not change much in relation to what was already presented. We will have a quieter week in Congress next week. There...

Former BIS / US Fed executive and Economics Professor named BSP governor
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

We expect financial markets here and abroad to welcome the appointment of Eli Remolona as BSP Governor. Currently a member of the Monetary Board, he will assume the governorship on July 3. As we wrote in our latest Forecast report, Mr. Remolona is preeminently qualified for the job having spent 1...

Slide Presentation - Colombia: Muddy waters
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Colombia's fiscal policy, economic activity and political environment with a presentation from Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar.

Topic of the week: Region moves into easing, with last holdout Azerbaijan signaling an end of the hiking cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jun 2023

The CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA WEEKLY starts with the topic of the week, which discusses the strengthening trend of CCA economies' exiting the rate-hiking cycle that prevailed over the last couple of years. Azerbaijan is the only holdout that has still not transitioned into easing, but even there ...

Confirmed: Wado de Pedro is the Kirchnerists' presidential candidate in the primaries
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Eduardo Enrique (aka Wado) de Pedro (WdP), current Minister of Interior and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner´s (CFK) political dauphin will run as a presidential candidate for the newly renamed “Unión por la Patria” (UP – formerly FdT). In August´s primaries, he will face the other main candidate o...

Deciphering Erdogan’s road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Erdogan and his long-time companion Bahçeli came out of a very tough election marathon with smiles all around, but they didn’t make it clear what they planned to do during the next five years when they shall reign over Turkey uncontested. AKP's Manifesto for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic ...

Lira will meet with governors to discuss Tax Reform today, Zanin’s appointment to the STF was approved in the Senate, and the Senate approved the fiscal framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2023

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is meeting with governors today to discuss Tax Reform. After the meeting, the rapporteur's report is expected to be submitted. There are still many questions and resistance to the text. As expected, Cristiano Zanin was approved by the Senate and wi...

Underwhelming hike, improved statement
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2023

Under the new Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan’s stewardship, the 5-member Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate (one-week repo rate) to 15% from 8.5% today, markedly less than the consensus forecast of 20-25%, which happens to be the first increase in the policy rate since Govern...

No change in monetary policy settings
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

There were no surprises in today’s Monetary Board meeting. Authorities decided to keep interest rates steady, maintaining the key overnight policy rate at 6.25%. The BSP’s inflation outlook showed price increases easing over the medium-term. There were slight tweaks to the forecasts, with inflati...

Who wants to be president?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jun 2023

President Lasso has been governing under the mechanism of “cross death” for a little over a month and has sent two economic decrees for the approval of the Constitutional Court. The first one reforms income tax collections to benefit people earning below $3,000 per month, which will imply $200 mi...

Kazakhstan offers to broker peace in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

On June 20 President Tokayev said he would like to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and said Kazakhstan would like to help to achieve this. He underscored that Kazakhstan cherishes its relationship with Russia. Russia is an ally of Kazakhstan in the CSTO and a member of the same economic bloc, the Eura...

Russian macro: The economy gradually adjusts to geopolitical changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

Rosstat published 1Q23 GDP statistics (on the production side, so far), and it appears that the y-o-y economic contraction was not as deep as the previous flash estimate suggested. GDP fell by 1.8% y-o-y (instead of the 1.9% reported previously), which is not much compared with the -4.5%, -3.5%, ...

The rapporteur of the fiscal framework made four substantive changes to the text, the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing for Cristiano Zanin today, and State Finance Secretaries will meet today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

The Senate will resolve the fiscal framework issue today. A vote in the Senate Committee on Economic Affairs is scheduled for this morning, and the issue will be put to a vote in the plenary this afternoon. The changes made by the rapporteur mean that the text has to return to the House. The vote...

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