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Congress vs. the STF and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

This will be a slow week in the Legislature. In addition to the holiday (Children's Day), Arthur Lira will travel to India and China with party leaders. The offshore taxation bill begins to block the agenda in the House on Saturday, October 14. This week the terms of two more advisors at the Admi...

Haddad travels to Marrakech today, Lira travels to China, and the TSE will analyze whether former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) committed abuse of political power in the 2022 elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, leaves for Morocco today, October 10. During his trip, he will speak with other economic authorities about the department's main points of interest. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), travels to China and India along with party leaders to pa...

Year-on-year CPI-inflation sharply down in September, but nothing unexpected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2023

The yoy headline rate dropped to 12.2%, from 16.4% in August. This was essentially due to a large friendly base effect, as the impact of last summer's energy price reform had just fallen out of the formula. The monthly inflation rate was still 0.4%, so not at all negligible. Core inflation looked...

Interest Rates in the United States and the Consequences in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Against a backdrop of a still heated economy and tight labor market, the indication that the interest rate will remain “higher for longer” in the US does not exclude the possibility of further elevation. The resilience of the American economy to the Fed’s tighter monetary policy is a consequen...

The second presidential debate
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Although from the point of view of the ideological position of each candidate there were no substantial changes compared with the first debate, this time around Sergio Massa did not manage to escape the debate unscathed, Milei's latest provocation runs the risk of backfiring, and Bullrich was see...

Gaza-Israel war: Implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Oct 2023 · 1 response

* Normalization probably factored into Hamas’s motivations but wasn’t the primary driver. * Saudi normalization in the near term is now much less likely. * Qatar may be able to mediate a prisoner exchange, but ceasefire talks don't look imminent. * GCC-Iran reproachment will stall, not least b...

UN speaks out against Russia citizenship to people in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023

On October 9 the UN said people in Russian-controlled Ukraine who do not accept Russian citizenship find it very hard to get public services, obtain and retain employment, healthcare and welfare. They are also at risk of being suspected of being Ukrainian agents. The UN described this as a human ...

BoI to sell FX, reduces likelihood of further tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023 · 1 response

The Bank of Israel announced a program to sell up to $30 billion in foreign exchange. The Bank will operate in the market during the coming period in order to moderate volatility in the shekel exchange rate and to provide the necessary liquidity for the continued proper functioning of the markets...

Green light for monetary tightening in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023

As approved by the Philippines’ Land Transportation and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), a provisional increase of P1 took effect yesterday for public utility jeepneys nationwide. This brings the minimum jeepney fare from P12 to P13 for traditional type and from P14 to P15 for the modern version. LTFRB ...

Continued weak demand and output figures in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

Retail sales fell by 7.3% yoy in August, after an 8.1% yoy drop in July and an 11% yoy decrease in Q2. In relative terms, this sounds like a bit of improvement, but it is still very far from anything that would directly suggest that the economy was already growing in this period: Note: In volume ...

Federal budget execution numbers look decent
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget was in deficit in 9M23, albeit the latter was narrower than in 8M23 (R1.7 trln versus R2.4 trln), implying that the budget was in surplus in September. It was the second month in a row of a federal budget surplus. Revenue collection improve...

Russia sells gas to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

On October 7 Putin said that Russia will begin the exports, and they will be transported via Kazakhstan. Russia's oil and gas exports have diminished due to Western sanctions and the EU's attempts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. In 2022 gas exports fell 22%.  Putin made the announcement as...

Confusion will be my epitaph
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2023 · 1 response

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format. Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on recession fears, Saudi hikes spending and bids for World Cup, Q2 non-oil GDP surges in Abu Dhabi but not Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil plummeted by over 10% because of worries about the global economy. * Saudi Arabia hiked its spending plans sharply and now sees deficits of -2% of GDP in 2023-26. * JP Morgan is considering including Saudi sukuk in it...

Putin says more nuclear tests needed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6 Putin made the announcement, saying Russia must prove that its nuclear arms work properly. Russia signed a treaty banning more nuclear tests but he said Russia may withdraw from this because the US has not ratified it. He was speaking at the Valadai Club's annual meeting.  The 1996 C...

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