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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Movements towards the 2024 presidential elections
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2023

It is now clear which presidential candidates will be on the ballot next year. While it has long been known that Xóchitl Gálvez will head up the ticket of the PAN, PRI and PRD alliance Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) and Claudia Sheinbaum that of Morena and its minor party allies, last week the Citi...

Haddad vs. the PT and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Congress may complete the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). In the Senate, a bill on taxing sports betting may be put to a vote. The rapporteur of the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds may submit his report in the Senate. President Lula is expected to sanction the payrol...

Q3 government sector data reported: the government looks interested in a strong forint at year end
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

The MNB released its preliminary data on Q3 financial accounts by sectors, including the government sector's net borrowing requirement (NBR) and its consolidated gross debt. This shows the NBR at 5.9% of GDP in January-September and the gross debt ratio at 75% of GDP at end-September. The NBR, ty...

RC, ADN and PSC share majority in CAL and Commissions
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

The government achieved what it was looking for with the political alliance that took place last week within the Assembly—control over the two main committees that decide the fate of the economically urgent bills that Noboa intends to make the axis of his government. They obtained four out of the...

Economics: Tourism approached pre-Covid levels by the second quarter, but based on some indicators has since stalled and turned negative
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Tourism data this year shows that many areas of activity have largely rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. However, the latest figures suggest that a stagnation trend may have begun to emerge in recent months. Among tourism GDP indicators, it is worth noting that the consumption of tourism-related g...

US Defense Secretary in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

On November 20 Lloyd Austin visited Ukraine for the second time since the war began. He assured Ukraine that the US is committed to helping Ukraine fight for the long term. Zelensky said Ukraine is ingratiated to the US for all its help. 55% of Ukraine's military aid comes from the United States....

The future of Minera Panama's operation lies in the hands of the Supreme Court of Justice
PANAMA · Report · 20 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

President Cortizo announced on Thursday that Minera Panama had made a “restricted payment” of US 562.8 MM to the government, around 75% of the US 750 MM that was expected for this fiscal year. If the Supreme Court declares sometime within the next few weeks that the now infamous Law 406 (deemed a...

Congress may complete the vote on the LDO, today is the deadline to submit edits to the offshore funds bill, and the STF may adjudicate the ICMS tax rate case on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Congress may complete the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), rapporteur of the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), should submit his final report today, November 20, or tomorrow, November 21 at the Joint Budget Committee (CMO). Today is the deadline for prese...

Pithy data commentary-November 17, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Nov 2023

We comment on the key data and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Oct inflation is still around zero, but set to accelerate in the coming months Armenia: Yield curve normalizes after becoming inverted in late Oct on risks of another Azerbaijan invasion Armenia: Remittance...

Floods and deaths due to heavy rains in the Dominican Republic
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023

At least 21 people have died as a result of heavy rains that have impacted the territory of the Dominican Republic since last Saturday, November 18, although the number could reach 30. In Santo Domingo, a historical record of 431 millimeters of rain in 24 hours was verified. Although there is not...

Economic activity accelerates in September
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Economic activity growth in September exceeded 3% y/y, for the first time in 2023. But the Central Bank, aiming to ensure that months of reduced economic growth have been left behind, has further eased monetary policy. In October a new $0.7 billion quick liquidity facility was created, and on Oct...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Nov 2023

1. The shekel continued to appreciate sharply last week, fueling expectations for a possible rate cut next week. 2. Inflation moderated in October, especially housing rental prices and services, a trend that is likely to continue. 3. Real-time data point to an increase in private consumptio...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, but at a much slower pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network. Sporadic low-level fighting wit...

Winter is coming, but what kind?
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

Russia ships grain to Africa for free
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023

On November 17 Moscow announced the shipments had been dispatched bound for Somalia and Burkina Faso. They are due to arrive by the end of November 2023. Two ships were sent and they each contained 25,000 tons. In July 2023 Putin said Russia would give 200,000 tons of grain to six African nations...

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