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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cyclical respites, secular concerns
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2023

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped...

Taking stock: MNB's financial results for H1 2023 look quite bad indeed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

The MNB has come forward with its H1 2023 financial report. It says the MNB had a 6-month loss of HUF999bn, mainly because of very high interest expenditure, paid primarily to domestic banks as the cost of monetary stabilisation. However, its equity stock fell by HUF1767bn in H1, to HUF1512bn or ...

Germany and US try to pull Central Asia away from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

On September 20 Biden met with the presidents of the 5 Central Asian nations. They were in New York for the UN General Assembly. The US is keen for the five to develop a regional identity that excludes Russia. This is happening anyway but the Ukraine War has accelerated it. On September 29 the Ge...

UK and Russia sanction each others' individuals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Sep 2023

On September 29 London sanctioned 12 Russian officials over elections held in occupied Ukraine. The UK said the elections were fraudulent. The United Kingdom has sanctioned 1,600 Russian since the war began. Those sanctioned cannot visit the UK and have had their assets frozen. The EU and US are ...

A macro review
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

With yesterday's publication of the Q2 balance of payments, we quickly review the quarterly macro indicators that were published towards the end of September. For this reason, we will momentarily put politics aside and focus on economic performance, but not without failing to remember that this S...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Oman, Dubai partly repays 2009 bailout, GCC-Pakistan FTA inked, Bahrainis killed on Saudi-Yemen border
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC inked its first FTA since 2009, with Pakistan. Others are pending with the UK, EU and China. * The Kuwait-Iraq maritime border spat prevented a meeting of GCC foreign ministers with Iraq and Iran at the UN. * Bahrai...

Petro’s make-or-break second year
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

What should we expect for Gustavo Petro’s second year? We think this phase will depend upon 1) what happens in the October 29th mayoral and gubernatorial races; 2) whether the economy definitively succumbs to recession, as the Central Bank projects, or rebounds, as private analysts expect; and 3)...

Justice Barroso became the president of the STF, Deputy Lindbergh Farias reported Roberto Campos Neto to the Ethics Committee, and the Desenrola program is the priority in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Upon taking office as president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luis Roberto Barroso defended harmony between the branches of government. This week, the relationship between the Legislature and the STF became more strained due to the time frame issue. Yesterday, one day after the meet...

Russia to raise defense spending 70%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 28 Moscow announced this and said it was due to the West's hybrid war. It has been going for 20 months. The Russian Ministry of Finance said that defense spending will rise to USD 112 billion in 2023. This is more than the budgets of several other ministries combined. This rise in de...

Armenia considers joining the ICC as relations with Moscow sour
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 29 Yerevan said it might join the International Criminal Court. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in 2023. States signed up to the ICC are obliged to arrest him if he enters their territory. Russia has not ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC. Neither has Ukraine, the US or ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is "Wrong" with Azerbaijan? - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Azerbaijan may be enjoying the spoils of victory over Nagorno Karabakh, but its economy has little to celebrate. GDP growth has expanded by a mere 0.8% YoY Ytd, rendering Azerbaijan the worst-performing economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In this week's report, which is a slide presentation...

A season of offense or the eve of a deal?
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Having calibrated the political climate, the Maduro government has begun its campaign by launching a political offensive. Its weapon is the new National Electoral Council (CNE) board, which has started pursuing political aims. First, it is seeking to disrupt the opposition's primary election p...

UK Defense Minister in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 28 Grant Shapps met Zelensky. The two discussed enhancing Ukraine's air defense capability. Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the British.  Ukraine suffered many attacks on its energy infrastructure in the winter of 2022-23. It is possible that Russia may try this again but the att...

Kazakhstan macro: long-awaited tenge depreciation to boost budget revenues in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Sep 2023

The Kazakh Finance Ministry recently published regular monthly budgetary statistics for August, including the cash flow data of the National Fund, the execution of the republican and aggregate local budgets, and the consolidated budget. Statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow reveals that ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Sep 2023

A series of rate hikes by the CBR had helped to stabilize the situation on the FX market, and in the previous couple of weeks, the ruble hovered slightly above R/$96. Nevertheless, the authorities are still discussing some measures that could either increase the supply of foreign currency or limi...

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