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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A rather poor but unsurprising retail sales figure in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

Retail sales fell by 0.9% mom, 12.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in April. Previously, it decreased by 12.8% yoy in March and by 8.5% yoy in the whole of Q1. Overall, retail sales dropped by 10.4% yoy in the first four months of 2023. This sounds like a rather poor performance indeed...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

The avalanche of failures in the domestic political sphere and in the country’s positions in diplomatic questions requires a rearrangement. The luck of expanding GDP will not last long, and the negative effects of the fiscal-monetary conflict will persist. UNEXPECTED DEFEATS IN THE COUNTRY AND...

Politics: Gubernatorial results to set the stage for presidential nominations and battles to come
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 gubernatorial elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila were held. Both states are currently governed by the PRI but as was expected by the polls, that party will only retain Coahuila. In the State of Mexico it was defeated with a 10-point difference by the Morena candidate, Delfina...

Russia says it has beaten off a Ukrainian counterattack
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 the counterattack took place in the Donetsk Region of Ukraine. Russia annexed Donetsk in 2022. Russia said that there were attacks on five sectors of the front and claimed that mechanized and tank battalions had attacked. Russia published videos of Ukrainian vehicles being fired at. On ...

Lira and the Planalto Palace and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2023

This will be a shorter week due to the Corpus Christi holiday on Thursday. In the House, the Working Group on Tax Reform sets out the guidelines for the proposal. The text will be presented by the rapporteur around June 20. The STF judges the case on the demarcation of indigenous lands. This w...

There will be a national holiday on Thursday (Corpus Christi), the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, and the STF will resume the trial on the time frame for indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2023

Due to the holiday on Thursday, Corpus Christi, this will be a shorter week of political activity. On Tuesday, June 6, the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). His report is expected to be presented around June ...

Ignore the headline, focus on core, services
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices were unchanged over a month ago in May, thanks to pre-election free natural gas offer to households for a month, with the 12-month rate dropping to 39.6%, from 43.7% in April. Domestic producer prices rose modestly by 0.7% in the month, m/m, thanks, among others, to subdued energy...

The government of (incessant) change
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

August 1994, right after Ernesto Samper’s inauguration as the new president of Colombia. His competitor, Andres Pastrana made public some tapes incriminating Samper’s campaign for allegedly having received $6 million from narcotraffickers to finance his campaign. 2023, 10 months after Petro’s ina...

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Jun 2023

1. Wage growth remains sticky, accelerating at an annual rate of 5%. 2. Private consumption growth has decelerated in recent months. 3. The shekel continued to weaken due to uncertainty regarding both the political and geopolitical outlook.

OPEC+ surprises: short-term Saudi cuts and fairer burden-sharing in 2024 and 2025
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Jun 2023

Summary Cuts extended into 2024 at 40.46m b/d, -3.3% below Oct 2022 targets but 1% above Feb 2023 actual.Allocations of 9 states cut by between -6% (Russia) to -42% (Equatorial Guinea) to match real capacity.10 states—including KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Iraq—will maintain the Oct 2022 alloca...

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jun 2023

Wage growth accelerated in Q123 to an annual rate of 6.3% (trend data) from 3.5% in Q422. This wage growth was witnessed in several sectors, both in public sector (wage agreement in the educational sector) but in the private sector as well. Initial data for April point to wage growth of 5.1% y/y,...

New beginnings or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2023

Erdogan’s new Cabinet is full of surprises, highlighted by the return of former economy czar Mehmet Simsek. Simsek though, is only the tip of the iceberg in a Cabinet characterized with conciliatory and capable names drafted from party and civil service. The new Cabinet appears to have been grant...

Ukraine says it is ready for its counter offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2023

On June 3 the Ukrainian President made the statement. He said that it would not be quick and there could be significant casualties. He said Ukraine did not have all the arms it wanted but it cannot delay any further. He has asked for armored vehicles in particular. He also wants more Patriot miss...

GULF WEEKLY: SEZs exempt from Saudisation, Dubai’s Palm Jebel Ali is revived, Sultan Haitham visits Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped mid-week but rose after the debt ceiling deal and ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. * Iraq announced plans for a major road and rail corridor from the Gulf to Turkey and Europe. * The Saudi census showed a count of ...

Government deposits in Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Executive Power, deposited in the National Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill. The bill seeks to guarantee the sustainability of public finances. The fiscal rule states that annual primary spending growth rate must not exceed the expected in...

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