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Iranian President visits Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

On November 13 the visit took place. The two countries have decided to allow visa-free travel between them. They also inked agreements on trade and transport. President Raisi also visited Tajikistan in 2022. Tajikistan is one of the few countries that welcomes the Iranian president. Iran is very ...

The CAE will analyze the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds, the report on the LDO maintained the zero-deficit target for 2024, and there is a national holiday on Wednesday, November 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

Last Thursday, November 9, the Senate received the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. It will be analyzed by the Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) before being put to a vote in the plenary. Regarding the budget, the preliminary report of Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-...

Ahead of Sunday’s runoff vote, Massa slightly edges Milei in the final presidential debate
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Nov 2023

As usually happens in runoff elections, particularly between those representing “extreme” political viewpoints, candidates generally seek to attract the undecided median voter. Sergio Massa, the candidate representing the current government, attempted to blast the libertarian independent Javier ...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Nov 2023

1. The October Business Sentiment Survey reflects an expected sharp decline in economic activity. 2. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 4% GDP in 2023 and 6% GDP in 2024 as a result of the conflict. 3. We expect a CPI print of 0.5% m/m in October, impacted by seasonality and higher fre...

Russia evacuates its citizens from Gaza
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

On November 13 an announcement was made that Russian officials from the Emergency Situations Ministry and diplomats are bringing Russian citizens out of Gaza. There are over 600 Russians in Gaza. So far Israel has only allowed 80 Russians out of Gaza. 60 Russians have gone from Gaza to Egypt. Rus...

Western sources say Ukraine blew up Nord Stream Pipeline.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

On November 11 The Washington Post and a German magazine cited Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources as saying that Ukraine was behind the explosion in 2022. Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the gas pipeline. Russia said that Ukraine did it. The pipeline in the Baltic Sea carried gas...

Economy and politics, too hot for comfort
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2023

Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutio...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, although at a decreasing pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network especially in Gaza city (inc...

Latvia's former interior ministry convicted of spying for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2023

On November 10 the court found that Janis Adamsons has worked for the Russian Federal Security Service and gathered intelligence for decades. He was awarded 8 years in jail. A Russian citizen was his accomplice, and a former KGB officer was given 7 years.  Adamsons was interior minister in the mi...

Russian missile hits merchant ship in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 10 Ukraine claimed that a Russian missile struck the Liberian flagged-cargo ship in Odesa and 1 sailor was killed. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied this. The ship was hit with an anti-radar missile, so the strike might be accidental. Kyiv claimed the ship was due to take iron o...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q3 revenue better than reported, Saudi FDI revised up, Dubai budgets strong surpluses, Qatar signs China LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped below $80 for the first time since July on demand concerns. * The conflict in north Gaza intensified, and Qatar hosted the Mossad and CIA chiefs for hostage mediation. * Saudi Arabia is hosting emergen...

Justice Barroso modified his vote in the FGTS correction case, the Tax Reform proposal still has not been submitted to the House, and there will be a federal holiday on Wednesday next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 9, during the trial of the case on the FGTS correction index in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Barroso, rapporteur of the case, modified his vote postponing the change in the TR correction for savings to 2025. This was a government request. Also yesterday, the r...

Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...

Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023

How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...

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