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Monetary Council next Tuesday, and the ban on grain imports from Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

This month's rate-setting meeting is set for Tuesday (September 26). The general expectation is another 100bps cut of the O/N deposit rate, to 13%, given that CPI-inflation is predicted to fall below 13% this month, and so one of the MNB's objectives, to reach a positive real interest rate, will ...

Webinar Replay: South Africa - Outlook from the world stage
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

What does the BRICS Summit mean for South Africa and its outlook? What are the early emerging scenarios for its 2024 National Elections? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian as he discusses how South Africa's international and domestic politics affect ...

The STF decided that the so-called “time frame” is unconstitutional, Justice Rosa Weber will retire on October 2, and the Prosecutor General’s term ends next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2023

By 9 votes to 2, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) decided, on Thursday, September 21, that the limitations imposed by the so-called “time frame” on the demarcation of indigenous lands are unconstitutional. The topic will continue to be discussed in Congress. Today will be Rosa Weber's last session...

A "Lehman Moment" for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Shadow banking poses a systemic risk to the Chinese economy as part of a greater debt problem. In this report, we trace the development of shadow banking in China and discuss the areas where risks to the sector lie. The main driving force behind the current demand for shadow credit has been th...

Poland bans Ukrainian grain and ends arms supplies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 21 Poland made the announcement due to a row. Poland said it has given Ukraine 320 tanks and 14 fighter jets (all Soviet era). Overall it has donated a third of its military assets. Poland said it must now concentrate on its own defense. What it has donated to Ukraine is being replac...

China refuses to sell drones to Russia, causing shortage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 18 the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported the story. On September 1 China stopped selling UAVs and their components to Russia. China said it is stopping the sale of such items if they might be used militarily but said this was not aimed at any country in particular. Customs data s...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains its hike pause - in line with the Fed and Bank of England
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25% for the second consecutive meeting, which also left the prime lending rate at 11.75%. The continued halt keeps total interest rate increases since policy normalization began in November...

Economy grows slowly, as campaigning heats up
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The Dominican economy grew 2.9% y/y in July, its most robust growth rate so far this year. But growth for January-July 2023, at 1.4% y/y, dispelled any doubts that 2023 would be a lean year. Since 2007, annual growth rates below 1.4% January-July have only occurred during the great recession of 2...

Russian draftees more likely to be killed than professional soldiers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2023

On September 21 IStories and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) published a report saying 1 in 5 mobilized Russian soldiers are killed within 60 days of being sent to the war. They used open sources to compile this data. The report was based on 3,000 draftees who have been killed since Septembe...

The CBRT delivers the expected, road ahead uncertain
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 500 bps to 30%, in line with the market consensus (see chart), which was also the most likely outcome, in our view. The paragraph on inflation is now amended to include the acknowledgement of worse than expected July-August prints,...

The STF resumes adjudication of the so-called “time frame” case, President Lula met with President Biden to discuss labor issues, and the Central Bank reduced the basic interest rate to 12.75%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2023

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes adjudication of the so-called “time frame” case, which limits the demarcation of indigenous lands to those occupied or claimed on October 5, 1988—the date of promulgation of the Federal Constitution. The score is currently 5-2 against the limitations...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Sep 2023

Sep 8 Government: China's Sinopec is interested in participating in new oil and gas projects in Kazakhstan KTZ: Kazakhstan and China intend to increase cargo transportation by rail by 15.5% in 2023, and in 2024 - by another 4% S&P: Kazakhstan lagged behind the OPEC+ quota by 100K b/d in Aug (1.45...

Azerbaijan halts advance on Armenian positions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2023

On September 20 Baku said it would not retake more of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian forces there promised to lay down their weapons and negotiate about giving the region back to Azerbaijan. The ceasefire was mediated by Russian peacekeepers. This is a success for Azerbaijan. But Armenia would have l...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on the 3rd Karabakh War
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Sep 2023

The fast-developing story from Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) has made us bring forward a bit our CCA Weekly by offering our initial thoughts on this all-important development in the Caucasus. Our Sep 19th In Brief on the results of the Yerevan City Council elections, which we interpreted as a strong sig...

The rapporteur of the PLDO said he would be willing to change the zero-deficit target, the STF will resume adjudication of the so-called “time frame” case, and the Copom will announce the Selic today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), Deputy Danilo Forte (União-CE), said that he would be willing to change the zero-deficit target for next year. He said he thinks the government would, too. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will resume adjudication of the so-cal...

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