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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation in August surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

Inflation in August surprises on the upside The CPI in August was up 0.5% m/m (expectations were in the 0.3%-0.4% range) accelerating to 4.1% y/y from 3.3% in July due to a strong base effect. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.9% from 3.6%, and excluding...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy gets into a more predictive easing mode
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Sep 2023

This past week was characterized by a host of monetary policy decisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The central banks of Armenia and Georgia cut policy rates as broadly expected while monetary authorities in Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged. Next week it will be Azerbaijan’s turn t...

Slide Presentation: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

Get insight into the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry with the presentation from our webinar, "China - How risky is shadow banking?".

Signaling continuing pause?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

BSP Governor Eli Remolona told reporters yesterday that he does not see the need to hike policy rates based solely on the spike in prices last month. Markets took the Governor’s statement as a signal that the Monetary Board will leave policy rates untouched when it meets next week. This view like...

Congress approves 2024 budget number, ignoring CARF warning
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023 · 1 response

On September 13, the economic committees of Congress approved the size of the 2024 budget at COP 502.6 trillion (29.6% of GDP), leaving the amount submitted by the Finance Ministry back in July unchanged. From now until mid October, the plenaries of the House and the Senate will continue to discu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The ruble remains volatile as messages coming from different sources contradict each other. On the one hand, CBR officials last week directly indicated that it could hike the key rate again. The latter was a hawkish signal and caused some appreciation of the currency. On the other hand, top manag...

Pro-Putin party wins Russian regional elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

On September 14 all the results were in. The United Russia won a handsome victory. It controls the great majority of regional legislatures and governorships. This includes Russian-controlled Ukraine. But United Russia is less popular in the Far East than elsewhere. This is a relatively poor area....

The new members of the ministerial team took office yesterday, the House approved the sports betting regulation bill, and a new schedule for Tax Reform was released yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2023

Yesterday, President Lula inaugurated the new ministers: André Fufuca (Sports), Silvio Costa Filho (Ports and Airports), and Márcio França (Entrepreneurship, Micro-enterprise and Small Business). The PP and Republicanos parties are still looking for more second-tier positions. Yesterday, the Hous...

The NBU cuts the prime rate by an extra 2 ppt down to 20%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

In August, with inflation easing to +8.6% y/y, strong gross international reserves at $40.4 billion (equivalent to 5.4 months of future imports), and a relatively stable FX market, all signs indicated that the NBU Board would cut the prime rate again in September. Experts had anticipated a 2 ppt ...

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive The current account surplus declined slightly in Q2 to 4.2bn USD (sa) from 5.0bn in Q1, but more importantly, the goods/services account surplus increased slightly to 3.1bn from 3.0bn (excluding the primary income which has less of a direct impact on FX f...

Uzbekistan: Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged, adds hawkishness to message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fourth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical ris...

Strong defense exports and weak imports reduce the trade deficit
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

Industrial exports continue to expand parallel to weak import growth. In June-August, industrial exports expanded by 8.2% saar (trend) following growth of 7.5% in the previous three months. Most of this expansion is centered around defense exports (transportation equipment, electronic products) a...

Challenges to taming inflation grow steeper still
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2023

Inflation trends in Venezuela reflect our country’s challenging dynamics. Various factors are sparking changes in relative prices that in turn are fueling inflationary inertia and hardening the inflation floor, while consumer demand weakness is serving as a ceiling. We’ve been picking up signs...

The new members of the ministerial team should take office today, the government was forced to remove the urgent status of two bills in Congress, and the government is negotiating the vote on the bill on the ICMS compensation payment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2023

The new ministers of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos), and Sports, André Fufuca (PP), take office today. The parties continue to seek other positions in the government. Yesterday, the government was forced to withdraw the constitutional urgent status of two bills that were bl...

Putin meets North Korean leader
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

On September 13 the leaders met at a space center in the Russian Far East. Putin said they met there because Russia wishes to help North Korea build satellites. He noted that North Korea wants to develop its rocket technology. The US speculates that North Korea will offer Russia shells and missil...

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