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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A mixed growth outlook – and an upstart presidential challenger
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 May 2023

El Salvador’s economic activity continues under the adverse influence of external conditions, as well as a lack of domestic drivers to stoke growth, including restricted fiscal room due to severe financing restrictions. The monthly index of economic activity, with figures to February 2023, has sl...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

Kazakhstan declines to join the Russia-Belarus Union
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 26 President Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would not be changing its status. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. The other members are Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Russia and Belarus. In 1999 Belarus and Russia formed the union state. They agreed to full reunification eventually....

Moscow and Kyiv both bombarded
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 27 and 28 there were air strikes, missile strikes and drone attacks on Kyiv. Ukraine said 40 drones attacked Kyiv and 14 attacked other cities. There have been 15 nights of aerial bombardment on Kyiv in May 2023. On May 28 Ukraine said there were no casualties in Kyiv. Even if Ukraine is l...

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

The MP on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF expires this week, the government continues negotiations on the fiscal framework bill, and President Lula meets with presidents of South American countries
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The Provisional Measure (MP) that instituted the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) expires this week. As it is being analyzed with a constitutional urgent status, it will block the agenda of the plenary of the House on June 21. Negotiations on the fiscal framew...

Russian macro: gradual de-Westernization is on the way
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...

Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2023 · 2 responses

With this report we introduce our Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) service. In order to better grasp the economic positioning of the CCA region, which is less well known and fair to say under-researched relative to other frontier markets, we first analyze it within the broader and better-known CIS...

Another encouraging growth figure
INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2023 GDP growth at 5.03% Y/Y, slightly above the 5.01% annual growth rate of Q4 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy contracted by 0.92%, which followed the normal pattern. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2023 was transp...

Time to return what belongs to us
UKRAINE · Report · 30 May 2023

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has shared a video on his social media accounts announcing that it’s time to reclaim what belongs to us. His message succinctly captures the essence of the current situation in Ukrainian society, both on the frontlin...

Further tightening will be data dependent
ISRAEL · Report · 30 May 2023

1. Last week the shekel weakened sharply on concerns regarding geopolitical risks and the possible renewed unilateral judicial overhaul. 2. A weaker shekel will translate into higher inflation (we see a 15% pass-through). 3. Unless this trend is reversed, the likelihood of a rate hike in J...

Talks unlikely to restart soon
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

Asked by an interviewer about the reasons for the Central Bank’s “stubbornness” in keeping the interest rate high, Campos Neto responded that a real interest rate for 10 years of around 6% a year has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is instead the fault of fiscal policy. Unfortunately, due...

Further tightening will be data dependent
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 May 2023

Rates reach 4.75% with mixed signals Last week’s 0.25% hike was in line with expectations on the back of strong economic activity, a tight labor market and sticky/broad-based inflation above target. Following the rate hike, Governor Yaron was interviewed and conveyed a dovish message stating that...

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