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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Past the peak of the inflation and interest rate cycle
HUNGARY · Report · 24 May 2023

Following a peak in January and roughly unchanged levels in the rest of Q1, CPI-inflation fell materially in April at last. This new pace of downward movement is likely to become a trend in the next two months and to accelerate further in Q3. We still believe that single-digit inflation by Decemb...

Russian PM in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2023

Mikhail Mishustin spoke in Beijing when meeting his Chinese analogue. He said that relations with China are closer than ever and this would help Russia to resist unprecedented economic pressure. China maintains it is neutral over the Ukraine conflict.  Mishustin went to a business forum in Shangh...

The House approved Deputy Cajado’s report on the fiscal framework, the vote on the edits to the text will continue today, and the National Forum of Governors takes place in Brasília today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2023

The House approved Deputy Cláudio Cajado's (PP-BA) report on the new fiscal framework. The score was 372 votes in favor, 108 against, and only one abstention. In a new text presented to the plenary, Cajado made some changes. Voting on the text continues today. Yesterday, only one edit to the text...

April's revenues disappoint. Martinelli faces a key trial for his political career. A new player: left-leaning economist Maribel Gordon is currently the third independent candidate for the presidency.
PANAMA · Report · 23 May 2023

The NFPS deficit in the first quarter exposed a shortfall in tax collection due to a decline in government revenues. Government expenditures continued to rise, while sales tax revenues fell below expectations, the budget, and last year's performance. The authorities provided a partial explanation...

The House should meet to decide whether to vote on the new fiscal framework, the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will hold a public hearing on the payroll tax exemption bill, and the CPIs should define their work schedules today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2023

At noon, the leaders of the House will meet to decide on whether the vote on the fiscal framework will take place today or tomorrow. It will most likely be left for Wednesday, May 24. Also today, the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will hold a public hearing on the bill that deals with payroll ...

The MNB started to reduce the O/N deposit rate with a 100 bps first step today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 May 2023

The Monetary Council's decision was to reduce the sterilisation rate, which is the O/N deposit rate, by 100 bps to 17%, after keeping it unchanged at 18% since October 14 last year. The repo rate, which is the ceiling for the MNB's interest rate corridor, was reduced accordingly, by 100 bps to 19...

The South African business environment in 2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2023

Following the post Covid-19 economic recovery, the South African economy and its corporations are facing a slew of challenges, both new and long-standing—with policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages being the most prominent of the latter. These have led to low business confidence, wit...

Two recent difficulties in macroeconomic policy
INDIA · Report · 23 May 2023

The RBI has announced that Rs.2000 currency notes would be gradually withdrawn. The announcement features lead time and is not disruptive in the way that the famous "demonetization" announcement of 2016 was. But it provokes unhappy memories of demonetization. Alongside this, a story has been p...

Economics: New signs of strain on public sector finance
MEXICO · Report · 23 May 2023

The Ministry of Finance’s first quarter report on public sector finances delivered plenty of evidence confirming our fears over the past year of deterioration, with increasingly limited margins' continuing to gradually become more apparent. January-March saw a significant drop in revenues that o...

Alleged Ukrainians attack into Russia, Ukraine denies involvement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2023 · 1 response

On May 22 fighters crossed from Ukraine into Russia. A group called Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) claims to have carried out the attack. They are anti-Putin Russians who are fighting on Ukraine's side. Ukraine denies attacking inside Russia. FRL attacked an FSB (domestic intelligence) and an Int...

Politics: Some scenarios of the presidential succession given recent developments
MEXICO · Report · 22 May 2023

Morena’s presidential nominee is supposed to be chosen based on one or more public opinion polls to ascertain which one is most popular with voters, but it is commonly assumed President López Obrador will pick the candidate, reviving one of the hoariest traditions of single-party rule in twentiet...

Effects of the Fiscal-Monetary Conflict
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2023

Whether measured by the one-year ex-ante real interest rate or by our financial conditions index, monetary policy is more restrictive than during the recession of 2014-16. Nevertheless, the economic activity data for the first quarter of 2023 show that the economy, at least until then, was recove...

Obstacles do not affect Lula's popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2023

The House is expected to complete the vote on the fiscal framework this week. Once approved, the text will go to the Senate. The installation of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) on the January 8 attacks is scheduled for Thursday, May 25. Also on Thursday, the government should launch ...

Russian roulette once again
ECUADOR · Report · 22 May 2023 · 2 responses

For many, the “cross-death” option became necessary after months of political battle between the executive and legislative branches and allows Ecuadorians to choose their political destiny once again. But somehow, for those who a few weeks ago were proposing it in Congress, it is an illegal dicta...

Rates up 0.25% to 4.75%
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2023

Policy rates increased today by 0.25% to 4.75%, in line with consensus. Inflation remains high and broad-based, core inflation has accelerated, but the BoI is looking at the annual rate of inflation in the past 6 months and 3 months and notes moderation (3.9% rate for the last three months, and d...

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