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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The run-up to the presidential elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Today, the government will publish August CPI inflation data, which will be an interesting indicator of the current speed that a nominal devaluation of the official FX rate, without a convincing macroeconomic plan, translates into inflation. Expectations for monthly CPI inflation are close to 11%...

Georgia: NBG continues with gradual exit from its tight monetary policy
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

The National Bank of Georgia cut the refinancing rate by 25bpts to 10.0%. This is the third rate reduction since the transition to an easing mode that was initiated in May. The rate cut was anticipated, although there was some uncertainty about the size of the step. The accompanying statement is ...

The Dominican Government announces expiration of offer to purchase and issues USD 1.25 b bond.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

Last Sep 5, 2023, the Dominican Government opened the purchase offer for bonds USP3579ECD78/P3579E CD7 (Reg S) and US25714PEA21/25714P EA2 (144A). These bonds were originally issued for DOP 68,023,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 9.75% and are set to mature in June 2026. Today, the Governmen...

Boluarte still vulnerable; economic risk rises; sticky inflation likely to delay rate cuts until November
PERU · Forecast · 12 Sep 2023

In this forecast report, we discuss different potential scenarios for politics, the economy and the markets. In politics, we focus on the possible outcomes of the efforts of President Dina Boluarte to increase her support. We argue that, rather than developing policy to tackle the problems affect...

Primary in danger?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

María Carolina Uzcátegui, former vice-president of the opposition's National Primary Commission (CNP), returned to the public arena on September 7 after having publicly resigned on July 26, 2023. She reiterated her July statement: logistical and operational conditions for the primary election are...

Putin addresses Russian Far East Forum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

On September 12 he was in Vladivostok. He said that Russia has a new generation of weapons. The main state news agency said this alluded to lasers and ultra-sonic weapons. He said that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is failing. He claimed that Ukraine has lost 72,000 soldiers since June 2023. Th...

The rapporteur of Tax Reform is optimistic about the promulgation of the proposal this year, the new members of the ministerial team are expected to take office tomorrow, and the CMO will discuss the fiscal framework today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2023

The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal in the House, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), is optimistic about the promulgation of the matter this year. The new ministers announced by President Lula last week will take office tomorrow. The ceremony for the new Minister of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and an acceleration of spending ahead of 2024 elections are likely to further squeeze public finances
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

Public finances have deteriorated in the last three months. With the presidential elections less than a year away, the administration has been stepping up outlays for social programs and investment in its flagship projects at the same time as there have been public revenue shortfalls as income fr...

Politics: Virtual presidential nominees face multiple challenges as Morena nomination process hits a major speed bump
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

The unity pact that all the 4T presidential hopefuls signed on to at the outset of the Morena candidate selection process didn’t survive the irregularities that Marcelo Ebrard called out. It is not yet clear what the former foreign affairs minister’s next move will be, but he has done nothing to ...

Armenia: Central Bank makes a bolder move, cuts refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.75 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

This week is big for monetary policy in the CCA region. Three central banks hold meetings this week, starting today with Armenia and moving on Sep 13th to Georgia and Sep 13th to Uzbekistan. These decisions will be the focus of CCA Weekly on Friday, Sep 15th, but here we only share our initial ta...

The collection agenda faces skepticism and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The new ministers announced by the government (Ports and Airports; Sports; and Micro and Small Businesses) may take office. In the Senate, the payroll tax exemption bill may be put to a vote. In the House, the proposal for a mini-electoral reform may be put to a vote. This week's Talking Point...

Fiscal Expansion and Its Consequences on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Sep 2023

With the approval of the fiscal framework, the government will guarantee an increase in spending in real terms of 2.5% in 2024, and in an interval between 0.6% and 2.5% in 2025 and 2026. At the same time, primary result targets have been established of zero in 2024 and surpluses of 0.5% and 1.0% ...

Kazakhstan macro government outlook: strong economic growth amid a favorable external environment and real tenge appreciation in 2024-2028
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The Kazakh government recently released its medium-term economic forecast and budgetary plan for 2024-2028. The government also confirmed that it has turned much more optimistic about economic growth this year than earlier. It now expects GDP to grow by 4.6%-4.7% this year and 5.3% next year, fol...

Mayor of Moscow re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2023

On September 11 the results were declared. It was no surprise, and Sergei Sobyanin won 76% of the vote—carrying every Moscow district. He vowed to continue to upgrade the city. He defeated four candidates all of whom are pro-Putin. Sobyanin is a long time Putin confrere. He is a member of United ...

Lula finalized the changes to the ministerial team last week, the payroll tax exemption bill returned to the Senate, and the Ministry of Finance has called for vetoes of parts of the bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The government finally announced changes to its ministerial team last week. Deputy Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE) will take over the Ports and Airports Ministry, replacing Márcio França (PSB-PE), who will go to the Ministry of Micro and Small Business. Deputy André Fufuca will replace Ana M...

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