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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A weakening shekel increases the likelihood of another rate hike
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Sep 2023

1. The fiscal deficit continues to drift higher on rapid expenditure growth and weak revenues. 2. Business sector sentiment reflects steady growth, with some improvement in the high-tech sector. 3. Recent shekel depreciation will contribute to inflation, increasing the likelihood of another...

Optics vs reality, redux
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2023

The politics author steps away from the topical stuff in this round, trying instead to find answers to the question of how far and long President Erdogan can be trusted to pursue orthodoxy. His answers are speculative and tentative, but he proposes 4 scenarios ranging from best to worst. For thos...

A weakening shekel increases the likelihood of another rate hike
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Sep 2023

Business sector optimism remains steady The August Business Tendency Survey points to steady growth (actually accelerating in August) and steady expectations for further growth. The high-tech sector is also reporting expected expansion in exports and employment next month, apparently on the back ...

Russia withdraws troops from Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2023

On September 7 it was reported that Russia has pulled its regional task force from Belarus. Ukrainian border authorities have confirmed this as have Belarusian oppositionists. They were deployed to Belarus in 2022 when Lukashenko said that Ukraine was plotting to invade. Ukraine said that a few R...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi oil cuts extended, UAE legalizes gambling, Qatar's population rebounds, Kuwait appoints finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent hits $90 after Saudi Arabia extended its additional cuts by three months. * Saudi GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in Q2 on oil cuts, although the non-oil private sector accelerated to 5.8%. * The IMF’s Saudi Arabia Articl...

Lula finalized the changes to his ministerial team, TCU auditors will meet to discuss Justice Toffoli’s decision on evidence from Operation Car Wash, and the Senate should vote on the payroll tax exemptions bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2023

After weeks of negotiations, the government finally announced changes to its ministerial team. Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE) will take over the Ports and Airports Ministry, replacing Márcio França (PSB-PE), who will be appointed to the Ministry of Small and Microenterprises. André Fufuca w...

Monetary policy update: A return to caution
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2023

The September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) returns to the cautious tone that prevailed prior to July’s Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM). The June CPI led to accelerating cuts, but now the July CPI and the recent depreciation of the exchange rate have caused increased caution, and a slowdown in the ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Activity in CCA is still strong, but signs of a more pronounced slowdown emerge in 3Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Sep 2023

As summer draws to an end, we take a snapshot of economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia and update the country “cheat sheets” that we introduced in our initiation report in May. We focus on the key issues of growth, monetary and fiscal policy, external position, and political/geopolit...

Georgian Dream wants to impeach the president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2023

On September 7 the EU asked Georgia to reduce polarization. Georgia applied for EU candidate membership but it might be rejected because of its fraught politics. The decision will be made in October 2023. On September 1 the ruling Georgian Dream Party said it wanted to impeach the president. Geor...

Russian missile kills 17 in Ukraine as US announces USD 1 billion more aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2023

On September 6 a missile hit a market in a town in east Ukraine. Ukraine says 17 civilians were killed. It came on the day that the US Secretary of Defense was on a surprise visit to Ukraine. He announced another USD 1 billion for Ukraine. However, this is a rather small amount given that Ukraine...

South Africa’s current account registers a deficit in Q2-2023 as the country’s terms of trade deteriorate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Sep 2023

An unwelcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the country’s current account balance recorded its fifth consecutive deficit during the second quarter of 2023. The deficit on the current account widened further,...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023

Aug 25 NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank has decided to lower the base rate by 25 bps to 16.5% with a corridor of plus or minus 1 pp NBK: The Bank has raised the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2024-2025 to 4-5% per year (vs 3.5-4.5% earlier). KMG: The Company and AD Po...

Good industry data, CPI tomorrow, reports going on holiday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The July industrial output data, reported this morning, actually looks quite good. Output grew 2.8% from June, a nice upturn after a nearly one year long downtrend (chart in volume terms, December 2010 = 100, courtesy of KSH): In yoy terms, output was still down by 2.7% yoy, after -5.3% yoy in Q2...

Medium-term program announced
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-26 was released today, which was presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, followed by remarks from President Erdogan.

In Q2-2023, the South African economy managed to record another positive growth result, yet households are struggling
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2023

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.6% during the second quarter of 2023, following the first quarter’s increase of 0.4% q/q. While the 2Q GDP figure shows another positive increase, in a similar manner to Q1-2023, the magnitude of increase was low, which indicates the South ...

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