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Kazakhstan fixed income: The debt market is attractive, but the moment is not perfect
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Uncertainty still prevails in Kazakhstan’s debt market. The increased exchange rate volatility is limiting the demand for securities denominated in tenge. The weakening of the national currency will lead to higher budget revenues in the remaining months of the year, but even under these condition...

Bank share prices imply slower long-term growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continue to see the expected partial recovery in the Chinese economy for the second half of 2023, thanks to expansionary policies by Beijing and a surge in debt. For now, I expect this partial recovery to continue through the end of 2023 and in...

The vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill was postponed to next week, the rapporteur for Tax Reform is preparing his preliminary report, and the payroll tax exemption bill was also postponed to next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2023

As expected, the vote on the offshore taxation bill was postponed to next week, along with the incorporation of MP nº 1,184/23, which deals with the taxation of exclusive funds. Adjustments to the text are being negotiated. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), rapporteur for Tax Reform, is preparing h...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Oct 2023

Oct 6 National Bank: The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to cut the base rate from 16.5% to 16% with a corridor of +/- 1 pp National Bank: The base rate in Kazakhstan at the level of 16% is balanced, and no hike is on the agenda Oct 7 Gas supply: President...

Unemployment remains low, for now
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Oct 2023

Unemployment remained low and stable in September at 3.2% (sa). Nevertheless, the employment ratio to the working age population declined to 61.4% from 61.6% last month. In other words, unemployment remained steady due to a slight decline of both the number of employed and of the labor participat...

Ukraine using US-made ATACMS
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2023

On October 17 Zelensky announced that the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) had been used by Ukraine for the first time. He praised them for their efficacy but did not say what targets they hit. They have a 300-km range. The US did not announce that ATACMS have been delivered but leaks in th...

Important meeting with the EU Commission is scheduled for this Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023 · 1 response

The position of the stars once again does not look highly favourable for the Fidesz government on EU matters. A most recent call by four factions of the European Parliament to remove Olivér Várhelyi, the EU's neighbourhood and enlargement commissioner, a Hungarian diplomat and PM Orbán's nominee ...

Putin meets Hungarian PM in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023 · 1 response

On October 17 Putin arrived in Beijing for a Belt and Road Initiative conference. 28 national leaders were there.  Putin met Orban. The head of the gas company Gazprom and the nuclear power agency Rosatom also attended the meeting. Hungary has the best relations with Russia of any EU country. Hun...

A sharp rate cut (if any) next week appears off the table
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023

Deputy Governor Andrew Abir spoke with the macro forecasters today, stressing the importance of market stability over other central bank goals (at present). It was clear from his words and the following statement, that a sharp rate cut on Monday is off the table (we cannot rule out a minor 0.25% ...

Haddad met with congressional government leaders to discuss the legislative agenda, Barroso postponed the vote on the FGTS case to November 8, and Tarcísio should submit a bill for the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2023

Yesterday, October 18, the Ministers of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, discussed the legislative agenda of interest to the Planalto Palace with government leaders in the legislature. Initially, the FGTS matter was scheduled to be adjudicated in the Supre...

Pithy data commentary-October 17, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2023

We comment on the key data and news events in the CCA: Armenia: Fitch argues rating resilient to Nagorno Karabakh conflict Armenia: Yield curve does signal (modestly) higher longer-term risk Armenia: Civil Contract party finds a path to victory, nominates mayor of Yerevan Armenia: Cent...

Georgia's Supreme Court allows impeachment of President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023

On October 16 it was ruled that Georgia's president, Salome Zurabashvili, violated the constitution by traveling abroad without the permission of Parliament. In September 2023 the ruling party, Georgian Dream, announced its intention to remove the president from office. Parliament can now vote to...

Economics: Inflation is a major concern, with core prices sticky, consumption demand and oil prices strong, and the public deficit continuing to swell
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

One of the main concerns looming over the economy in the final stretch of 2023 and throughout 2024 is the direction of inflation, with its implications for monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rates and, ultimately, economic growth. While continuing to recede, core inflation’s recent traject...

The impact of the war in the Middle East on Brazil and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on the bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. Lula has until October 20 to sanction or veto the so-called "Time Frame". In the STF, the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS stands out. And, at the TSE, new cases ...

Politics: Bereft of a coherent foreign policy, Mexico stumbles on the world stage and reverts to policy stances of the 1970s
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

The disdain that President López Obrador has displayed toward the issues involved in Mexico's relationship with the world is summarized in his frequently used phrase to justify his indifference on the subject: "The best foreign policy is domestic policy." The consequences of the absence of any pl...

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