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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 May 2023

Below we describe how the government is losing support both in Brazil and abroad, and the aggravation of the fiscal-monetary conflict, culminating in slower growth and prolongation of high interest rates and inflation. Without a master plan to define his third mandate able to identify bearings...

Government negotiations start to work and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2023

Four Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs) are expected to be installed, including the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks and the CPI on the Landless Workers' Movement (MST) in the House. The House may vote on the "Fake News" proposal. The Supreme Federa...

Four CPIs will be installed this week, the House may vote on the Fake News Bill today, and the STF will begin virtual analysis of the injunction that suspended the STJ decision on the use of ICMS tax credits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2023

Four Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs) should be installed this week. The one on the January 8 attacks is a joint committee and will be composed of both deputies and senators. Three other committees will be installed in the House: on the Landless Workers' Movement (MST), the Americanas s...

The pressure rises for Xi Jinping
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 May 2023

During the Chinese leadership’s Politburo meeting on the economy last week, the Party said it would seek to boost confidence in the private sector to return the economy to healthy growth. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, had forecast that officials would repeat...

Uzbeks approve constitutional reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2023

On May 1 the result of the vote was announced. Officials say that the amendments were approved by 90%. That is no surprise in a country where international observers say there has never been a free election. Observers say there was a lack of transparency about ballot counting, and the media is co...

Politics: A hard battle fought for transparency, against an avalanche of troubling reforms
MEXICO · Report · 01 May 2023

President López Obrador’s call to accelerate efforts to consolidate what he defines as the fourth “historical transformation" of the country was in evidence during the final week of the recently concluded session of Congress, in which the governing party unleashed a deluge of legislative proposal...

Ukraine shelling Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2023

On April 29 Russia said that five of its villages near the border had been shelled and left without electricity. The local administration stated that no one was killed or injured.  Ukraine has repeatedly struck at the Belgorod Region, which is adjacent to Ukraine. However, it has seldom managed t...

Economics: Economic data in April generally came in stronger than expected, but manufacturing keeps decelerating
MEXICO · Report · 01 May 2023

Economic activity in Mexico began the year with a stronger rebound than we expected in late 2022, beginning with data for January that showed private consumption had risen an annual 5.9% at the same time as Gross Fixed Capital Formation jumped 7.1%. The services sector (6.5%) was also a major dri...

The candidacy of Ganjar Pranowo
INDONESIA · Report · 01 May 2023

At the peak of the month of Ramadan, with the fasting month ending on April 21, 2023, former President Megawati, in her capacity as the Chairwoman of the PDIP Party (the largest party in Indonesia) made the announcement of the candidacy of Ganjar Pranowo for next year's presidential election. Thi...

The labor market remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 01 May 2023

1. Recent economic indicators point to fairly robust economic activity in recent months. 2. The labor market remains relatively tight, and job creation strong. 3. The MoF has increased weekly bond issuance due to concern that the fiscal deficit will exceed the target.

The devil is in the details
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 May 2023

While the International Conference on Venezuela closed without an official joint declaration from the 20 participating countries, it did produce a unanimous closing call for three things. First is to "establish an electoral schedule" that considers the recommendations of the November 2021 Europea...

Unions take the initiative in pension reform, ACP land-buy delay, Torrijos to run in 2024, and civil forfeiture draft rejected (another setback for Cortizo)
PANAMA · Report · 01 May 2023

Last week, CONATO, the country's most powerful union association, presented a proposal to the Legislative Assembly to solve the short-term cash deficit of the defined-benefits sub-system (SEBD) by consolidating its assets with those of the private account sub-system. We analyze the implications ...

The labor market remains strong, and economic growth steady (in Q1)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 May 2023

The labor market remains fairly tight The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9% in March (similar to Feb), as 25k new job were created while labor participation increased as well. The BoI preferred category (ages 25-64) actually witnessed a decline in unemployment to 3.2% in March from 3.5% i...

From Istanbul, with confusion
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are not very informative, because there are several technical glitches in poll averages, which the politics author uses as his primary reference material. He still remains very confident that Kilicdaroglu will cross the finish line ahead of Erdogan in the second round...

Few political surprises, as economies flag
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2023

El Salvador’s economic performance in 2023 and 2024 is confronting challenges from both abroad and at home. Global economic slowdown, distortions due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, persistent and defiant inflation and strong monetary policy measures taken by many central banks are important co...

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