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The Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet resigned after images surfaced of him during the January 8 attacks, the government is trying to prevent the installation of a CPI on the matter, and Lula travels to Portugal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2023

The Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet, Gonçalves Dias, resigned after images surfaced of him at the Planalto Palace on the day of the January 8 attacks. In the images, he appears to be interacting cordially with the vandals. This week, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) postpo...

Ukraine receives Patriot missile batteries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2023

On April 19 Ukraine said it now has US-manufactured Patriot surface-to-air missile systems. Germany, the Netherlands and the US have also given Patriots to Ukraine. Each battery costs about USD 1.1 billion, with each missile costing USD 4 million. They can shoot down incoming missiles and planes....

Never cared for what they say
CHILE · Report · 19 Apr 2023

In its March Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank of Chile revised up its base scenario for 2023 GDP and consumption growth. Consumption growth projections still seem low to us. Economic activity remained stagnant in February. The service IMACEC, retail sales and imports show that consumption...

The new fiscal framework was submitted to Congress, Lula decided to withdraw the taxation on international orders, and the STF should announce its decision on ICMS tax credit transfers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2023

The text of the new fiscal framework was submitted to the House. Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that the rapporteur will be announced this afternoon and should be a member of the PP, his party. Lula decided to withdraw the taxation of online purchases. Minister Fernando Haddad sai...

The MNB said it will likely narrow the interest rate corridor next Tuesday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Apr 2023 · 1 response

MNB Vice governor Virág was quoted by the local press this morning as essentially giving away the decision he expects from the Monetary Council's next rate-setting meeting due next Tuesday (April 25). He said that the conditions appear to be right for the Council to narrow the Bank's interest rat...

Russian Foreign Minister in Latin America
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2023

On April 18 Sergei Lavrov said that countries that oppose Western domination should oppose its sanctions. He denounced ''Western blackmail''. Lavrov is in Venezuela. He visited Brazil and will go on to Nicaragua and Cuba. Venezuela and Russia have a close relationship but the country nevertheless...

The board of directors of GB Group Corporation (Global Bank's full owner) decided to buy the shares of Ricardo Martinelli, his family, and their companies for not meeting the criteria of "moral solvency"
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2023

Summary of facts and implications of Martinelli´s exit as shareholder of Global Bank, S.A. On March 28, 2023, the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP) issued the Agreement 002-2023 which established that banking entities “must guarantee that shareholders and senior management maintain an exce...

Political arrangements for the 2024 elections being defined, amid economic uncertainty
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Apr 2023

Although economic activity growth in February 2023 (at 1.8% y/y) was higher than in January 2023 (at 0.4% y/y), the economy has undoubtedly entered a path of lower growth, which may intensify if international economic conditions deteriorate. Even the authorities have recognized the possibility of...

Will this year’s “consumption revival” disappoint?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Apr 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * GDP in the first quarter of 2023 grew a better-than-expected 4.5 percent year on year, or 2.2 percent month on month. While we have almost certainly seen some rebalancing in the month of March, with consumption growing faster than GDP, it is still ...

Boluarte holds on; economy to recover gradually; BCRP’s first rate cut delayed to June
PERU · Report · 18 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on politics, the economy and the markets. We argue that the government of President Dina Boluarte has gained stability, and that Boluarte has improved her chances of staying in office until the scheduled July 2026 end of her term. On the economy, we argue that e...

The new fiscal framework may be submitted to Congress today or tomorrow, Congress should analyze presidential vetoes today, and the STF analyzes the accusations against 100 January 8 attack participants
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2023 · 1 response

The new fiscal framework is expected to be submitted to the National Congress today or tomorrow. It is important to note that the new framework will be submitted as a supplementary bill. To be approved, it needs the support of an absolute majority in both houses of Congress. Today, a session of t...

Russia jails anti-war opposition politician for 25 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2023

On April 17 Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced for disseminating disinformation and belonging to an undesirable organization. Kara-Murza, 41, was educated at Cambridge University. He is a dual British-Russian citizen. He returned to Moscow in 2022 despite knowing he faced charges. He had gone to t...

China Q1 2023 GDP – structural weakness
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Apr 2023

Some quick comments about the Q1 2023 numbers: The headline numbers were stronger than expected. GDP growth was 4.5% compared with a consensus 4%. Retail sales were 10.6% compared with 7.5%. On the industrial side, one positive number that jumped out was that apparent oil demand rose 9.5%. ...

Stable growth in 1Q23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Apr 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1Q23, the economy continued to expand at a decent pace. The short-term indicator grew in 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. This indicator is a monthly measure of economic activity, which includes the six most important sectors that cover 60% of the co...

Economics: Strong indicators during 1Q23, but with multiple factors that could heighten country risk
MEXICO · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Economic activity in Mexico began the year with a stronger-than-expected rebound from late 2022 as January data showed private consumption had risen an annual 5.9% at the same time as Gross Fixed Capital Formation jumped 7.1%. The services sector (6.5%) was a major driver. But the impressive ...

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