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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The economy is cooling, with mixed consequences
HUNGARY · Forecast · 13 Apr 2023

In the following new quarterly update of our macro forecast, the key novelty is a more positive view on the forint exchange rate. We still believe that the current EURHUF rate is unsustainable from a competitiveness point of view and requires correction well within this year. But we see more supp...

Lula will have dinner with the General Secretary of the CCP in Shanghai tonight, the government is trying to deal with the criticism from issuing the decree on the sanitation framework, and the STF voted on the ICMS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2023

President Lula has meetings in China today. He will participate in the inauguration ceremony of Dilma Rousseff as president of the New Development Bank (NDB)—the BRICS bank. Then, he will have dinner with the General Secretary of the Communist Party in Shanghai. After dinner, Lula will leave for ...

US increases sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2023

On April 12 the US sanctioned 29 Russian companies and 25 individuals whom it says are connected to the Ukraine War. One of those sanctioned is the deputy prime minister. Megafon, Metalloinvest and Rusatom Overseas are among the companies sanctioned. Alisher Usmanov is the main target of the sanc...

President of Azerbaijan in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 10 the state visit took place. The two countries have agreed to make the most of the Trans Caspian International Transport Route. It is also known as the Middle Corridor. This agreement means improving port technology and simplifying tariffs. The two nations are on opposite shores of the...

Russian macro: in search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

After a yearly break, the Central Bank of Russia published monthly foreign trade statistics, albeit not as detailed as previously. After February 2022, the CBR stopped publishing monthly data on exports and imports, though recently it provided the aggregate foreign trade data without any breakdow...

Alleged leak of US documents on the Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 9 scores of what are supposedly classified US document about the war were published on the internet without authorization. These included charts, maps and photos. Some of these were top secret. The documents details the weaknesses of both sides. Some documents date back to early March 20...

Russia will digitize its military draft system
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 11 Russia's parliament voted to streamline the system of calling men up for the military. This bill adds to the rumors that Russia is planning a new wave of conscription. Russian males usually do a year of military training at the age of 18. Wartime conscription is mostly about calling b...

The submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed to April 17, deputies are upset that the government issued a decree on the sanitation framework bypassing Congressional input, and Campos Neto should go the CAE on April 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

Once again, the submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed. According to the president of the Joint Budget Committee (CMO), Senator Daniella Ribeiro (PSD-PB), the bill is now expected to be submitted next Monday, April 17, after the return of Finance Minister Haddad from his trip to Chi...

CPI-inflation for March out: further 'patience' from the MNB will be required
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

Well, the CPI-inflation data for March, reported this morning, was just awful. For sure, the headline rate fell a little further, to 25.2% yoy, from 25.4% yoy in February, making March the second consecutive month with a decrease, from the peak 25.7% yoy in January. It is also true that in its la...

Parliamentary Elections: Advantage, Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

Do you believe in fate? Personally, I’m on the fence about her, because I feel my life has been more of a “random walk” then guided by a divine power. Yet, if such a force were to exist, I’d say it is carrying Kemal Kilicdaroglu (KK) and the Nation Alliance (NA) to power. With no major changes in...

Maduro’s tolling agreement proposal: a non-event
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

On March 30, 2022, the Maduro government announced it suspended the statute of limitations on bonds issued by the sovereign and Pdvsa for five years or until the US government lifts economic sanctions that prevent a debt restructuring, whatever happens first. This initiative stems from the “perpl...

Lula and Haddad travel to China today, the fiscal framework should be submitted to Congress along with the LDO this week, and Justice Ricardo Lewandowski retires today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2023

Haddad had a meeting with Chief of Staff Rui Costa yesterday to review the micro details of the LDO and the new fiscal framework. Yesterday, Lula praised the proposed fiscal framework and said he was certain the text would be approved by Congress. Fernando Haddad is traveling to China with Lula. ...

Polls show the country remains polarized and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Today, April 10, the government reviews President Lula's first 100 days in office and announces new measures in a ceremony at the Planalto Palace. The new fiscal framework will be submitted to Congress, as well as measures aimed at increasing revenue and the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Lula trav...

A Framework That Falls Short of Resolving the Fiscal Problem
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Given the need to reduce the public debt, the only fiscal framework that makes sense is one that assures reaching of sufficiently high primary surpluses to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, the government’s proposal fails in this task. The arithmetic of the new framework seems impeccable. After a...

Today is Lula’s 100th day as president, the government should submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, and Lula travels to China tomorrow morning
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Today, April 10, the government reviews Lula's first 100 days as president and announces new measures in a ceremony at the Planalto Palace. This week, the government will submit to Congress the complementary bill that deals with the new fiscal framework. The matter will be accompanied by a set of...

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