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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Caution Is in Order Regarding Cutting the Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Last week, bets grew about an early start of the monetary easing cycle, before the end of the second quarter. The optimism was not due to the quality of the fiscal framework announced by the government, but rather to the deceleration of the 12-month rate of the IPCA to 4.6% (5.6% a month ago). In...

The Ministry of Finance in the next 100 days and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2023

The government should finally submit the new fiscal framework to Congress. Proposals aimed at increasing revenue should also be submitted, as well as the new framework for PPPs. Congress reviews presidential vetoes. The holiday on Friday, April 21, reduces legislative activity. This week's Tal...

Politics: Poll shows success of the fight against Plan B, which suffers setbacks as new INE councilors assume their posts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Apr 2023

One of the most significant aspects of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters was that it showed the extent to which the efforts of the INE under former Institute President Lorenzo Cordova, civic organizations and opposition parties have succeeded in winning over the vast majori...

Tebet and Bijos discuss the PLDO today, the STF should announce the result of the ICMS tax credits case on Wednesday, April 19, and there is a federal holiday on Friday, April 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Today the Minister of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet, and the Federal Budget Secretary, Paulo Bijos, will hold a press conference to present and explain the figures of the Budgetary Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2024, submitted on Friday, April 14, to the National Congress. On Wednesday, April 19...

Adverse inflation data ahead of the elections puts the government under pressure
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Last Friday’s publication of March National CPI inflation at 7.7% m/m was higher than expected, even considering the 7.1% m/m previously published by CABA CPI. And even considering March’s relatively strong seasonality, the implicit annual inflation, based on the monthly result, rose to 114% y/y....

Initial signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Apr 2023

1. Although inflation in March surprised slightly on the downside, core inflation remained stable at 5.1% y/y. 2. The main threat to inflation going forward remains a weaker shekel, while other macro trends support slowing inflation. 3. The fiscal deficit in March increased sharply on lower...

Chinese defense minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2023

On April 16 he visited Putin and the Russian Defense Minister. The Kremlin was very keen that the media report this because the Kremlin wants to emphasize that China is friendly to Russia. Minister Li said that ties between the two countries are closer than ever. Russia was elated that this is hi...

Initial signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2023

Inflation in March points to some initial inflation moderation Inflation in March was up 0.4% (below market expectations of 0.5%). Core inflation remained stable at 5.1% y/y, similar to the pace in January and February. Several categories moderated, such as housing rentals (from 6.8% y/y to 6.7%)...

One conflict solved, one created
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2023

As we pointed out in our latest report last week, Hungary has a number of bad conflicts with the western world in these days. Over the last few days, one of these was largely sorted out, but another one was just newly created. For the first one, Hungary has just decided to leave the International...

Everything, everywhere, all up in the air
TURKEY · Report · 16 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

The politics author’s strong conviction about a Kilicdaroglu victory in the presidential ballot is confirmed by more data, but the parliamentary race is up in the air -- and could go either way at this juncture, in terms of the number of seats the alliances might score. Worse, the uncertainty abo...

Russia claims to be gaining in Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2023

On April 15 said that it has moved forward on the edges of the city. The Battle of Bakhmut has been going on since August 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Wagner Group units are among those moving forward. It said that the Ukrainians were destroying buildings on purpose before pulling...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil supply looks tight in H2, regional reconciliation advances, Fitch positive on Oman, Sinopec invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose further as OPEC and IEA monthly reports forecast a 2m b/d supply gap in H2. * Bahrain and Qatar will re-establish diplomatic relations, a boost to Bahrain’s economy. * The IMF revised down GCC fiscal forecasts on...

The government discusses the sanitation legal framework, the new fiscal framework should be submitted to Congress next week, and Congress is expected to analyze presidential vetoes next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2023

Lira stated that Congress has been discussing changes with the government about the decree that modified the sanitation legal framework in order to avoid more drastic measures, such as voting on a bill to suspend the effects of the norm. Lira said he expects to put the new fiscal framework to a v...

Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2023

Signs of inflation moderation Inflation in March surprised slightly on the downside, up 0.4% m/m (consensus was 0.5%, as was mine) and moderated to 5.0% y/y from 5.2% in February. Core inflation (CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 5.1% y/y. Housing rental prices (OER) mode...

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