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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

More favorable international winds along with (preliminary) approval of the fiscal framework and tax reform package, the latter two developments prompting Fitch to raise Brazil’s credit rating to BB, have brought alleviation in the past few weeks. The end of the congressional recess in August por...

Politics: The complicated relationship between violence, organized crime, elections and the US
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2023

Four and a half years into President López Obrador’s administration criminal violence endures as the toughest challenge facing the country. Even before AMLO took office that view was shared by well over 40% of registered voters, a perception that faded throughout the Covid-19 pandemic as people w...

The economic agenda in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

The Legislature and Judiciary resume activity. The House may vote on the new fiscal framework. In the Senate, the Tax Reform rapporteur may present his work schedule. Negotiations on Ministerial Reform continue. The BC decides on the basic interest rate. Cristiano Zanin takes office at the STF. ...

Russian Navy Day is held despite drone attacks on Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

On July 30 Russia celebrated Navy Day. Putin was in St Petersburg. Presidents from four African countries were present. Iran sent two ships to participate. Russia displayed 46 vessels for the naval review. Putin announced 30 new ships will be built for the navy in 2023. He said almost nothing abo...

Legislative and judicial activities resume tomorrow, Cristiano Zanin takes office as justice of the STF on Thursday, and ministers participate in preparatory meetings ahead of the BRICS summit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

This week, activities will resume in the National Congress and the Judiciary. Some topics should be discussed, such as the fiscal framework, which may be put to a vote this week. Additionally, this week's agenda also includes Cristiano Zanin's inauguration as justice of the Supreme Federal Court ...

Market volatility in reaction to judicial legislation
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Jul 2023

1. The shekel weakened by over 2% last week due to the judicial legislation that is weakening the power of the Supreme Court. 2. This will impact inflation and could support further monetary tightening. 3. We expect GDP growth to slow next year, to 1.8% from 3.4% this year.

Georgia: 1H23 growth performance in line with our more constructive outlook for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

The Statistical Office reported today that the rapid estimate of economic growth expanded by 7.7 percent YoY in June. The monthly indicator is calculated using administrative data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics. For those sectors, where preliminary monthly data do not ...

Tajikistan: Inflation reaches a bottom in June, set to inch up over 2H23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Headline inflation rose by 2.4 percent YoY in June, on par with the May print, but core inflation increased slightly to 2.2 percent YoY from 2.1 percent YoY in May. The National Bank of Tajikistan reported the Jun breakdown of inflation, as usual with significant delay. Headline inflation expande...

Armenia: Fitch upgrades Armenia to BB-
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Fitch upgraded Armenia from B+ to BB- citing improved growth prospects and lower public debt levels. The decision was not a surprise for two reasons. First, Armenia was the only country in our CCA coverage where there was some difference in the rating among rating agencies, with Moody's having Ar...

Turkmen population thought to have fallen dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

On July 14 the government published census data claiming that there are 7 million people in the Central Asian country. This is up from 6.7 million in 2026. There was a census in 2012 but the data remains a secret possibly because it was so embarrassing. Between 2008 and 2018 about 2 million peopl...

Market volatility in reaction to judicial legislation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

The passing of the reasonableness cancellation law impacts markets Last week, markets reacted to the passing of the law cancelling the ability of the Supreme court to overturn government policy if deemed “unreasonable”. Following the decision, the shekel sold off and then stabilized (down 2.3% ag...

The state of the nation (and macro)
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2023

In this last weekly report before the summer recess, the politics author briefly discusses the “state of the nation”. In foreign relations, President Erdogan’s U-turn looks more permanent than his experimentation with quasi-orthodoxy in economic policy. In terms of Gulf funds, there is very visib...

Russian macro: industry to grow steadily in 2023, but capacity issues may hamper future growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 2.6% y-o-y in 1H23, by 6.3% in 2Q23 and by 6.5% y-o-y in June alone. Recall that industrial output contracted by 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23. There are still strong base effects associated with last year's 1H22 shock caused by the special milit...

Kazakhstan's debt market: no change
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's debt market remains relatively calm. The growth of interest rates in the US and the EU apparently stopped the government from entering the foreign market in 1H23, even though the CDS spread has decreased by almost 100 bps since the beginning of the year, creating a favorable opportun...

Peru: Boluarte vows for consensus
PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Today President Boluarte went to Congress and delivered her annual speech. Being highly unpopular, the speech was an attempt to reach out the opposition and the population at large. Left-wing parties are demanding her resignation, although they do not have the votes in Congress to force an impeac...

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