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Policy mistakes and a severe draught worsen economic projections
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Apr 2023

The trends of the main indicators of the economy for 2023 and the projections under a best-case scenario in 2024 and 2025 continue to be those described in our January 10, 2023 forecast. However, as we expected, the government has made no progress in reducing fiscal imbalances or relative price d...

China’s softer tech regulation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Noises have been coming out of Beijing suggesting a softer tone toward the technology industry three years after the crackdown that caused share prices to plummet and companies to lose revenue. I would argue that things have changed around the margins but the underlying dynamics of Party power re...

A fateful day in politics
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are rather brief, because the main event of the week, the negotiations over merging candidate lists were yet to be completed, as we finalized these lines (as of 5 pm, Istanbul time). While all three political alliances have submitted their preliminary lists, these can...

Russia wants a new world order and threatens to end the Grain Deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2023

On April 7 the Russian Foreign Minister said peace negotiations on Ukraine must encompass a new world order. Sergei Lavrov was speaking in Turkey to the Turkish Foreign Minister. Russia said it will end the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) if barriers on Russian grain and fertilizers are not loo...

Putin said he is ready for talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

The Russian President's spokesman said he is willing to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Ukraine said that it will not negotiate, and the only way to end the war is for Russia to withdraw unconditionally.  The President of France was in China on April 6. However, he said that China will not act as a m...

Azerbaijan expels 4 Iranian diplomats amid assassination claims
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

On April 6 Azerbaijan made the move. It has accused the diplomats of spying and gave them 48 hours to leave. Azerbaijan arrested 6 of its own citizens that day and said that they had conspired to overthrow the government and establish a theocracy. Iran is a shariat state whereas Azerbaijan is sec...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

Mar 24 SOCAR: The Azerbaijani company has started the transit of Kazakh oil from Tengiz via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). The framework agreement between SOCAR and KMG assumes the transit of 1.5 mln tons of oil per year Mar 27 Government: Kazakhstan from April 1, 2023, introduces mandatory regis...

LatAm Webinar Replay: Reforms Galore - Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Affonso Pastore, Robert Funk, Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Gonzalez discussing how proposed reforms to pension systems, fiscal rules, and tax policies are likely to impact Latin America's largest markets in an event moder...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...

Russia political, pandemic update: The geopolitical performance drags on; actors repeat themselves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

It looks as though the consequences of the current standoff between Russia and the West (including Ukraine) will be a legacy that current leaders on both sides will leave to new generations of politicians. It appears that policymakers of all sorts are enjoying the situation they designed and deve...

Ukrainian President visits Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2023

On April 5 Zelensky was in Warsaw to meet his Polish opposite number. He also addressed some rallies. There are 1 million Ukrainian refugees in Poland: more than in any other country. Poland is the only country that Zelensky has visited twice since the war began. He has worn a military uniform ev...

Minister Silveira criticized Petrobras’s import parity price, tomorrow is a federal holiday (Good Friday), and the STF should issue a final decision next week on the transfer of ICMS tax credits between states
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

The Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, stated that Petrobras's import parity price, the PPI, is "absurd" and that he "has already made some changes". The statement caused repercussions in the market and the company. Next week will be hectic. In addition to the change that the gover...

Very poor industry and retail sales data in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2023

Industrial output fell 4.5% yoy in February, after -3% yoy in January. In Q4 2022, when GDP fell by 0.4% qoq (and expanded by 0.8% yoy), industrial output still grew by 3.9% yoy. The government and the MNB have been expecting positive GDP growth this year on hopes of growing net exports, which in...

Scale of China-Russia censorship collaboration revealed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

On April 5 Radio Free Europe published a report showing the extent to which the two countries have been sharing strategies to control dissent and the internet as part of their partnership. Meetings took place from 2017 on. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) and Russian communications re...

Haddad said that the export tax on oil will end on June 30, Lula signed a decree on the sanitation framework, and Alckmin asked Pacheco to vote on the Legal Framework for Guarantees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Economy, Fernando Haddad, said that the export tax on oil will end on June 30 and, after that period, taxes on gasoline and ethanol will again be charged in full, making the extension of the tax unnecessary. President Lula signed a decree today to regulate the sanitatio...

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