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Russian macro: manufacturing to gain importance as a driving force
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Russian industrial output grew by 1.2% y-o-y in March and contracted by a mere 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 versus a 3.0% y-o-y contraction in 4Q22. Seasonally adjusted industrial output grew in March by 1.3% m-o-m. In the previous months, industrial growth remained negative due to the base effect caused b...

When people feel poor, they blame their President
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

The results of Dane’s 2022 Quality of Life Survey on perceived poverty should worry the government. Perceived poverty jumped from 37.9% in 2019 to a startling 46.7% in 2021, and then rose, yet again, to 50.6% in 2022. This last 4 pp increase leaves no doubt about families’ perception that inflati...

Justice Nunes Marques asked to review the FGTS case, three CPIs and a CPMI were created in the House and Congress, and Lula will travel to London to participate in the coronation of King Charles III
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Yesterday, Justice Nunes Marques asked to review the judgment that deals with the correction of FGTS accounts. Justice Luís Roberto Barroso, of the STF, voted to equate FGTS payouts to the income from savings. There is no date for the resumption of the trial. In addition to the Joint Parliamentar...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips on global jitters, Saudi leads Sudan evacuations, Bahrain records deflation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell further on jitters about the US and global economy, lower than before the OPEC+ cuts. * S&P put Egypt on a Negative outlook amidst worries about GCC investment and other financing. * Gulf states, notably Bahrain ...

Webinar replay: Colombia political update
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Visit the our calendar page to watch our webinar featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's cabinet changes, the ousting of Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo and the implications and impact on Colombia's outlook.

Turkey webinar replay: Approaching the election of the century
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey's current economic and political situation as Turkey approaches the most consequential elections of its modern history and the likely impact of the election on Turkey's outlook.

Russia prepares to repel Ukrainian offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Apr 2023

Russia has strengthened its multilayered defenses. Ukraine's counter offensive is expected in May 2023. By then the spring will have thawed out the mud. Russian lines are over 800 km long. Russia's offensive has almost petered out. Russia holds most of Bakhmut but was supposed to have taken the e...

CFK presented her economic views but avoided public requests to run for president
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

This Thursday, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) participated in the inauguration of the “Escuela Justicialista - Nestor Kirchner” (i.e. the School of Peronism - NK). CFK defined it as a school of “political, more than technical education” (would that be indoctrination?). She ga...

Infrastructure, anyone?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

In Washington for the World Bank / IMF Spring meetings earlier this month, the country’s economic managers turned the spotlight on infrastructure opportunities in the Philippines under the Marcos administration. In a half-day briefing that focused on the economy’s macro fundamentals and investmen...

Ukrainians kill collaborators
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

On April 25 a police officer in Melitopol was killed by a bomb and one other police officer was injured. The Ukrainian Mayor of the city fled to Ukrainian controlled territory in 2022. He commented that the dead man was a Ukrainian police officer who had gone over to the side the invaders. Russia...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023 · 1 response

After the rapid depreciation at the beginning of April, the ruble stabilized in the R/$81 to R/$82 range. As some correction of oil prices occurred, we don’t think there are many reasons to expect the ruble to strengthen significantly soon. In addition, in May, Minfin may start purchasing FX on t...

The STJ decided to authorize the collection of IRPJ and CSLL taxes on ICMS tax benefits, Pacheco read the request for the installation of the CPMI on the January 8 attacks, and Lira read three requests for CPIs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2023

The ministers decided to authorize the collection of the IRPJ and CSLL taxes on ICMS tax benefits. The decision, however, does not have immediate effect because an appeal will likely be filed. Yesterday, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), read the request that allows for the c...

Dog days of summer
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand wi...

Ocampo is leaving. Big challenges ahead for Bonilla
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

President Petro reshuffled his cabinet and sacked 7 ministers (finance, agriculture, interior, health, science, IT & telecoms, transport). The most salient decision was to sack the Finance Minister (a total surprise to everybody, including Ocampo himself), who was acting as a living corset to the...

Sub-Saharan Africa: a region poised for growth
NIGERIA · Report · 26 Apr 2023 · 1 response

With this report we introduce our Sub-Saharan Africa service. Africa is a continent emerging from the shadows in terms of the global economy, with opportunities created by the inevitable expansion of global trade and investment. With a combined GDP of $1.6 trillion in 2021, the continent has 5...

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