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Election Notes-II: Turkey, a divided nation
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 May 2023

Nearly 20 hours have passed since the first ballot results were announced, but only the rough outlines of the outcome are certain. Even news sites have not yet begun to print commentary on what happened, or how it happened. I would understand if my audience expresses frustration with the vacuity ...

Opposition wins Presidency of the Assembly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 May 2023

With 96 votes—more than even UNES and the Social Christians expected—Virgilio Saquicela his loyal voice today won the presidency of the Assembly for two more years. This is four more votes than those needed to impeach President Lasso.  Seventeen legislators from Packakutik and Izquierda Democrati...

Elections: First words are not going to be very informative
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 May 2023

Contrary to my habit of spouting updates on elections in the past, I find myself utterly confused at 03:35 am Istanbul time, deadly afraid of making a mistake even in reflecting the initial results of the elections, much less starting a preliminary analysis. I’m very confident that the Republic A...

Government bond issuance expected to increase
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 May 2023

We expect the fiscal deficit to reach 2.4% GDP this year This assumes further contraction in tax revenues in 2H23. According to our fiscal financing projection, bond issuance will gradually increase from 1.35bn per week in May to 2.0-2.25bn. The bond market should be able to absorb this increase,...

Ukraine intensifying attacks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2023

On May 13 both Ukraine and Russia claimed to be advancing in Bakhmut. The head of Wagner Group said that Russian fighters are fleeing. On May 13 at least one Russian military helicopter crashed close to the Ukraine Border. Russia did not specify the cause of the crash. One Russian official claime...

US alleges that South Africa sold arms to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2023

The United States said that a Russian ship arrived in Cape Town to pick up a cargo of arms and ammunition in December 2022. The US has been openly critical of South Africa for being amicable with Russia since 2022. South Africa took part in military drills with Russia and China in February 2023. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman and KSA Q1 fiscal outturn, Aramco to boost dividends, Abu Dhabi’s economy grows strongly, Syria will rejoin the Arab League
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Arab League voted unanimously to readmit Syria, despite misgivings from Qatar. * The Saudi Q1 flash GDP implied non-oil growth of about 5.5% y/y, the most since 2021. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -0.3% of GDP deficit in ...

Deputy Cajado postponed the submission of his report on the new fiscal framework, the STF will judge a case on the civil framework of the internet, and an Extraordinary Appeal should also be adjudicated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2023

Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), rapporteur for the fiscal framework, postponed the submission of his report to next Tuesday, May 16. The vote in the plenary next week is still uncertain but we continue to expect the House to approve the text in May and send it to the Senate. On Wednesday, the Supr...

US gives Russian oligarch's seized assets to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2023

On May 10 the US Justice Department said USD 5.4 billion belonging to Konstantin Malofeyev will be given to a fund to reconstruct Ukraine. Malofeyev made his money in banking, media and telecoms. In 2022 he was indicted in the US for breaking sanctions on Russia relating to the seizure of Crimea ...

Ukraine claims to have regained land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2023

On May 12 Ukraine said it had taken back land. Pro-war Russian bloggers also said that the Ukrainians have grained ground in Bakhmut. The head of Wagner Group said that the Ukrainians have been gaining in Bakhmut since May 9. This would be particularly galling for Russia as it has put so much int...

Armenia and Azerbaijan fire on each other
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2023

On May 11 shots across the border led to one dead and four wounded. The two neighbors held talks in Washington DC just last week. The US and Russia called for calm in the former Soviet states. The US suggested that both sides withdraw forces an agreed number of km from the frontline. The EU is du...

Famous last words: the macro sequel…
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 May 2023

Having done quite a few reports, calls and zooms over the past month or so, many of them jointly with my colleague Atilla (see the brief sent out earlier today on his latest thoughts), I thought it might be useful to provide a quick recap on what I’ve been saying on the macro side. Broadly speaki...

Famous Last Words: As luck would have it…
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 May 2023 · 1 response

It is time to say my final words, which are going to be substantially different than my comments in the last Weekly. I’ve always believed Erdogan’s greatest asset wasn’t his charisma, ruthlessness or the Machiavellian tactical intelligence, but luck. The last minute decision by protest candidate ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 May 2023

A number of interesting events affected the FX market in recent weeks. Note that the ruble significantly weakened in April and moved from R/$77 to about R/$82, which was partially explained by increased federal budget expenditures. In April alone, they accounted for over R3.1 trln. In January, th...

Hour Zero Approaches
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 May 2023

The report recommending Guillermo Lasso should not be impeached was approved by four members of the review committee and rejected by five. According to the legal procedure, the plenary approved to start the impeachment process with 88 votes. The impeachment process could last two weeks or less, a...

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