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President Boluarte in trouble; government upbeat on the economy; BCRP’s first cut now expected in August
PERU · Report · 16 May 2023

In this report, we discuss the unfortunate comments made by President Dina Boluarte, in response to the recent international human rights reports, and the risk of her being forced to resign. Then we discuss the Q1 2023 real GDP report released on May 15th, and our forecast for economic performanc...

Dep. Claudio Cajado (PP-BA) released his report on the new fiscal framework, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) may read the petition to open the Cryptocurrencies CPI and the nomination of Gabriel Galípolo for the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank was released
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2023

Deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA), the rapporteur of the complementary bill that deals with the new tax regime, released his report. The basic scenario is that this week the urgency of the proposal should be voted on and approved. But the merit should be left for next week. Today, Lower House Preside...

Inflation converging to target range, but growth is sluggish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 May 2023

The Dominican economy grew by a cumulative 1.4% in Q1 2023, the third lowest rate for a Q1 during 2005-2023. Meanwhile, y/y inflation was 5.15% in April, the lowest y/y rate recorded since December 2020, which shortens the distance to the annual inflation target range of 4±1%. The restrictive ...

A mild recession has been reported for Q1 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2023

GDP fell by 0.2% qoq, 1.1% yoy in volume terms, according to KSH's preliminary data. This was the third consecutive quarter with negative quarterly growth, as according to downwardly revised numbers, GDP fell by 0.6% qoq in Q4 and by 0.8% qoq in Q3 2022. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expected -...

Moldova intends to leave a post Soviet association
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2023

On May 15 Moldova said it will quit the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Moldova said it was leaving because the CIS had not helped them get Russian troops to leave Transnistria, which is a region of Moldova. Russia says its troops in Transnistria are peacekeepers. Moldova says they are ...

"Star Wars" in the Kyiv sky
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 May 2023

The night of May 16th in Kyiv was somewhat noisy, and the sky resembled battle scenes from the "Expansion" series or "Star Wars". In the morning, we learned from official reports that the Ukrainian air defense successfully repelled one of the most intense air strikes witnessed during the ongoing ...

Economics: Marginal gains in 1Q23 fall far short of what Pemex needs, while refineries remain underutilized
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2023

Pemex’s first quarter results delivered signs of improvement on multiple fronts even as weaker prices for its products contributed to a 53.6% drop in net income compared to the same quarter of 2022. That result also reflected a 19.1% reduction in total sales from a year earlier, as well as an ero...

The Path to Fiscal Dominance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 May 2023

In an article published in 1981, Sargent and Wallace described the evolution of a non-cooperative game between a fiscal authority and a politically independent monetary authority. If the fiscal authority expands spending, leading to unsustainable growth of the public debt, the monetary authority ...

Politics: Following a new Supreme Court setback, AMLO sets his sights on an improbably massive 2024 victory and more reforms
MEXICO · Report · 15 May 2023

On May 8, the Supreme Court handed the López Obrador administration another setback by declaring that a first part of the government’s Plan B electoral reforms were unconstitutional because proper legislative procedures were not followed when Congress approved them. The main objectives of the now...

April's CPI surprises sharply on the upside as core inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2023

April’s CPI surprises sharply on the upside Inflation in April reached 0.8% m/m, double the consensus expectation of 0.4%. The annual rate remained stable at 5.0%, while core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 5.26% m/m from 5.10% last month. Two items surprised...

2023–2024: Slowdown
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 May 2023

We present our central scenario for the Venezuelan economy in 2023 and 2024. As we enter the forecast period, our economy is losing steam. Thanks, however, to the 2022 economic rebound, the Chevron effect, and the "tidying up" process going on at Pdvsa, fiscal accounts are strengthening. Econo...

New tests for government negotiation and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2023

This will be a busy week in Brasilia. The rapporteur of the fiscal framework is expected to submit his report on Tuesday. Installation of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks is expected this week. The STF will adjudicate cases related to the internet civil...

Ukraine claims to be advancing in Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2023

On May 15 Ukraine said it had taken 10 Russian positions and had taken prisoners of war. Ukraine claims not to have commenced its spring counter-offensive yet. But Ukrainian artillery barrages have undoubtedly been heavier than usual. On May 10 Russia claimed to hold 805 of the city. On May 15 th...

Deputy Cajado will submit his report on the fiscal framework on Tuesday, many CPIs will be installed this week, and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad will participate in public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2023

Deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA), is expected to present his report on Tuesday, May 16. On Monday, he presents the text to party leaders. For the bill to be voted upon by the Lower House, it is necessary to approve a request for urgency with the minimum support of 257 members. The Joint Parliamentar...

April implicit annual inflation close to 140%, economic announcements expected
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 May 2023

Contrary to what seasonal factors would have anticipated and well above market expectations, April's monthly CPI inflation jumped higher, to 8.4% m/m. This brought the annual rate to 108.8% y/y and implicit annual inflation, i.e., annualizing April´s seasonally adjusting monthly rate, to 138% y/y...

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