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Russia's attack on a Chinese bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Nov 2023

The cyberattack by Russian agents or their proxies on a Chinese bank in the U.S. is more serious than it may appear on the surface. The Russian group LockBit, based in Netherlands but with Russian employees, conducted a ransomware attack on the Chinese bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China...

Slide Presentation - Geoeconomic reshuffling in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2023

Get insight into how the 3rd Karabakh war has reshuffled the deck of winners and losers in the region and the sustainability of these relationships in the short-to- medium term as individual economies adapt to the new geoeconomic realities—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Cauca...

Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow steadily
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

According to a preliminary estimate of the Bureau of National Statistics, in 9M23, the country’s GDP expanded by 4.7% y-o-y—not a bad result despite some deceleration of growth compared to 1H23 (5.0% y-o-y). There are still powerful 2022 base effects, which could lift GDP growth in 4Q24 and the 2...

Putin signs laws restricting reporting on 2024 election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

On November 15 Putin inked the law that permits elections to be held in occupied Ukraine, which is under martial law. It also limits media reporting at polling stations. Non-accredited journalists will be forbidden from filming at polling stations at military bases. Opposition groups suspect that...

Renegotiation of AERODOM contract to yield benefits surpassing 1.9 billion
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

President Luis Abinader announced yesterday the results of the renegotiation of the contract with the company AERODOM, which has been operating 6 public airports under concession since 1999. The renegotiation includes an initial payment or concession rights fee of USD 775 million to be paid in th...

Congress’s counter-reforms; a Finance Ministry confidence shock; BCRP likely to cut again in December
PERU · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In this report, we comment upon three topics. First, we discuss the counter-reform initiated by Congress in 2016, which led to confrontation with the judiciary. Next, following a bit of data-watching, we discuss the government’s new Plan Unidos (“United Plan”), designed to pull the economy out of...

The current account surplus widens in 10M23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2023

The CBR’s preliminary report suggested that in October, the current account surplus was almost the same as in September ($11.2 bn versus $11.4 bn). In 10M23, the current account surplus widened to $53.8 bn. Such an improvement in Russia’s external balance occurred amid a higher Brent price and na...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. We project annual inflation in 2023 to reach 202 percent, down from 234 percent in 2022. October was an atypical month in that primary money (M0) contracted despite ...

The recession ended in Q3 (well, actually in Q2 already according to revised data)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2023

KSH reported Q3 2023 real GDP growth at +0.9% qoq, -0.3% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. They also revised previous quarters, and so the Q2 data changed to 0% qoq, -2.2% yoy. This means that the economy actually receded in three consecutive quarters through Q1 2023, it stagnated in...

The deadline for submitting edits to the LDO ends on Friday, Lula will meet with the economic team to discuss the fiscal target, and tomorrow is a national holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2023

The deadline for submitting edits to the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was extended from Thursday, November 16, to Friday, November 17. The change was due to the national holiday tomorrow, November 15. Today, November 14, President Lula will have a meeting with members of the economic team, and the...

In Ecuadorian politics you can fry snowballs
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

The ADN of Daniel Noboa has been able to reach an agreement with Revolucion Ciudadana and Partido Social Cristiano to conform a majority of 94 legislators.The Social Christians sum 18, and ADN contributes 25, after capturing additional 11 legislators. Albeit those names have not been disclosed ye...

Politics: The opposition coalition unveils a draft of its 2024 platform, detailing how it would govern
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

So far, coverage of the 2024 presidential contest has been focused on the activities and polling numbers of the two leading candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. The latter candidate has been left struggling to mount her own team and is campaigning as best she can on the basis of her ...

The 2020 Depreciation, Foreign Exchange Flows and Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

The minutes of the last COPOM meeting stated that “at upcoming meetings” the easing pace of 50 basis points per meeting will be maintained, so it is certain that the SELIC rate will be lowered to 11.25% at the meeting in January. However, thereafter the Central Bank will have to use the “art in t...

What are the implications of Jamaica’s first international domestic currency bond offer?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

On November 3, 2023, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) issued its first Jamaican dollar-linked international bond for J$46.6 billion, or roughly US $300 million. The seven year SEC registered bond had a coupon of 9.625%, and was issued at a slight discount for a yield to maturity of roughly 9.75%. ...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending likely to further squeeze public finances as Hurricane Otis adds to the budget debate
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

Public finance statistics as of September 2023 reflect an increase in spending concentrated in social programs and a stagnation of total revenues because of the contraction of oil revenues. These have jointly led to an expansion of the public deficit of close to 20% in September alone and a cumul...

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