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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Nov 26
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Georgia: National bank holds rates steady, but only temporarily
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 10.50 percent on Jun 21st. This follows the 50bpt rate-cut at the previous meeting in May and, in our view, does not signal a reconsideration of the decision to gradually enter a rate-cutting cycle. Rather, it signifies a c...
Azerbaijan: Central bank holds policy rate constant, signals end of rate-hiking cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.0 percent on Jun 21st. There was some underlying intrigue in the runup to this meeting as monetary authorities were seemingly still not done with the rate-hiking cycle, having been consistently sending hawkish messages to the mark...
Improving inflation as the electoral countdown begins
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jun 2023
This Saturday, June 24, is the deadline to present the candidates for the primary elections. The extra-long weekend, which extends to today, should have given politicians time to ponder their propositions and options, particularly regarding whether Sergio Massa (SM) will or will not run as a pres...
Politics: AMLO sets the rules with a nudge from Ebrard, but risks to Morena unity remain
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response
After Marcelo Ebrard forced his hand the evening of June 6 by announcing he was resigning as minister of foreign affairs to devote all his efforts to campaigning for the Morena presidential nomination, President López Obrador set clearer rules for the campaign to choose his probable successor. Co...
MNB's Virág is hinting on the future path of rate cuts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response
At today's rate-setting meeting of the MNB, everything went as expected. The Council decided on a uniform 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the repo rate and reverse FX swaps, leaving the base rate and the low end of the interest rate corridor unchanged. Mainly, the O/N depo rate (= the ...
Economics: April manufacturing data may be just a one-off bounce with further weakness to come
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023
The industrial activity figures as of April of this year reflect a high increase in manufacturing after registering positive rates but with a deceleration trend in the first months of the year. Manufacturing activity registered an increase of 2.1% with respect to the previous month and 3.2% compa...
Fernando Haddad increases in prestige and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023
The Senate is expected to vote on the fiscal framework with edits. Senators are also analyzing Cristiano Zanin's appointment to the STF. The report on Tax Reform may be submitted. The TSE will adjudicate the case that could render former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for future elections. I...
The CAE will hold a public hearing on the fiscal framework, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023
The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will hold a public hearing today on the new fiscal framework. The Senate will likely conclude the vote on the text this week. Also today, the Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions for 17 sectors of...
Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023
When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...
Kazakhstan macro: mixed 5M23 results amid puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2023
Given that in recent years, the country’s economy has faced several shocks including the pandemic, protests in early 2022, and Russia’s special military operation, economic trends in Kazakhstan have turned very uneven, being influenced by various base effects. One can also add disputes with Russi...
Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023
Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".
Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jun 2023
1. Inflation surprised on the downside in May, but service prices continue to accelerate. 2. The labor market remained tight in May, with unemployment holding steady at 3.6%. 3. Macro fundamentals remain shekel supportive although recently political uncertainty has been the main driver. ...
Russian war deaths over 25,000 according to study
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023
On June 16 the BBC and a Russian media group called "Mediazona" published a report. They based it on media reports, social messaging posts, graves and names on memorials. The 25,000 figure includes those fighting for Wagner Group. Some Wagner fighters are non-Russians. In September 2022 Russia s...
Sterilisation rate expected to fall by 100 bps to 16% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023
The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is scheduled for tomorrow. This time around, the Council is also set to discuss the Q2 inflation report. Analysts unanimously expect another 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate. For D...
Labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023
The labor market remained tight in May and at full employment. Unemployment remained stable at 3.6% (seasonally adjusted data) while the rate of participation in the labor market improved slightly to 64.2% from 64.1%. More people are looking for work than previously and finding employment (theref...