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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: General presidential campaigns de facto underway as FAM campaign struggles to gain traction and MC looks for opening opportunities
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2023

According to the electoral authority’s calendar, each party’s campaign to choose its respective presidential candidate got underway November 20. But in the latest example of election law's distantly lagging political reality, those pre-campaigns have been unfolding for many months, with the two m...

Interest Rates in the USA, Term Premium and Reflections on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Since Brazil is integrated in international capital flows, the Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions must consider what happens in the United States, and to clarify the importance of this fact, nothing is better than an example. In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Federal Reserv...

Polls underscore challenges for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. Leaders in the House negotiate the Tax Reform voting schedule. The Federal Senate may vote on the offshore and sports betting bills. The National Congress may analyze presidential vetoes. This week's Talking ...

Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...

Rates on hold with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...

Lula travels to Saudi Arabia this week, the president of the House will meet with party leaders to discuss Tax Reform, and a session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Germany this week. He will be accompanied by ministers, governors, and legislators. Participation in COP28 is scheduled for December 1 and 2. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur,...

OFZ: Temporary improvement
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...

Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023

1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...

Too many “known unknowns”
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...

Dozens of Russian drones attack Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2023

On the night of November 24 Russia launched its largest ever air attack on Kyiv. Ukraine said that it shot down 71 drones, which was almost all of them. They were said to be Shahed drones, which are Iranian designed. However, it is thought that Russia now has its own factory to make Shaheds. Ukra...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates Gaza deal, China-Saudi currency swap, Qatar-Bahrain causeway revived
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ ministerial has been delayed for four days and shifted online, possibly indicating a lack of consensus. * A Qatar-mediated ceasefire began in Gaza and 24 hostages were released. * The war may have already killed...

Russian macro: The show must go on—growth above expectation amid decoupling from the West
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2023

The country's economic situation looks decent as some key macroeconomic data exceeded most optimistic expectations. It turned out that GDP grew slightly above 2.9% y-o-y in 9M23 as Rosstat reported that it increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 3Q23. Such quarterly growth was well above expectations. Even th...

What do El Niño, influenza and the car manufacturing industry have in common?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2023

The three things mentioned in the title are all key factors that contributed positively to Hungary’s otherwise mixed macro performance in 2023. El Niño’s warm and wet weather has boosted agricultural output spectacularly, after a La Niña-related severe drought last year, saving the economy from a...

Growing number of Russians and Ukrainians want to end the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 15 an organization called "Russian Field" carried out an opinion poll and showed that 49% of people wanted to negotiate an end to the war and 39% wanted to fight on. These figures have moved considerably in favor of peace talks since June 2023. The November 2023 poll also showed growi...

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