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Essential CIS Politics: July 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

* Wagner Group seized Rostov but agreed not to march on Moscow as charges against Prigozhin were dropped. * The Ukrainian counter-offensive has made minor progress. * African peace envoys visited Kyiv and Moscow but did not bring peace. * Ukraine and Russia continue to bombard each o...

Steady economic growth and a weaker shekel will support tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jul 2023

1. Private consumption picked up modestly in March-May on employment growth and the public sector wage bonus. 2. The shekel continued to weaken last week as the coalition plans on pushing forward with part of the judicial overhaul. 3. Steady growth and a weaker shekel will support a rate h...

Growth exceeded our previous forecast for 2023, but in 2024 it will slow, regaining traction in 2025. Fiscal figures will be favored by Minera Panama's new royalties. Ricardo Martinelli's trial faces a verdict in early July
PANAMA · Forecast · 03 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Growth in the first quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, much like analysts' forecasts for the global economy. According to our estimates, Q1 GDP may have grown between 9-10%, similar to the year-over-year increase of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) through February. The resilience s...

PM Orbán is sailing against the winds in the EU once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The EU Council held its semiannual summit meeting on June 29-30. The European media is full of the story that Hungary, this time together with Poland, the other usual suspect, once again blocked the consensus at the meeting. And yes, that is right, although the summit itself played a role only at...

Removable disqualification?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The political disqualification of María Corina Machado is yet another obstacle that the Maduro government is putting in the way of elections. It is difficult to decipher the political rationality of what the government is doing, since it is making it easier for the opposition to achieve the cohes...

Spanish PM in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

On July 1 Pedro Sanchez visited the country and addressed the Parliament. He said the EU is unwaveringly committed to Ukraine. He asked Ukraine to continue to reform. Spain will provide USD 60 million in aid to rebuild Ukraine. Spain has also trained Ukrainian troops and provided it with tanks.  ...

UN finds that Russia executed 77 civilians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2023

On June 27 the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UNHRMM) said that the civilians had been killed while in arbitrary detention. UNHRMM said that 864 people had been arbitrarily detained by Russia: most of them men. Most of these detentions were held to be forced disappearances. UNHRMM...

How is the battle progressing? Slowly, but with persistence.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2023

My foreign friends often ask me about my impressions of the counter-offensive. A month has passed since the major battle was announced, but the situation looks unsettling, with no substantial territorial gains to show for it. All the reports from Russian military bloggers about the loss of Wester...

Russian macro: The Russian economy in 2023—Transition 2.0 in progress
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 30 Jun 2023

Recent statistics published by Rosstat suggest that the Russian economy continues to recover from the epic 2022 shock and multiple aftershocks that keep coming in the form of regular sanctions. Businesses and the economy in general had to react to these changes as it became clear to almost everyo...

Controversies, disappointments -- and surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jun 2023

Costa Rica continues to struggle with political confrontation. Giving the fraught political conditions analyzed in our May report, controversial presidential proposals are not likely to make their way easily through Congress. Amid this climate, the government submitted five bills on fiscal matter...

Steady economic growth and a weaker shekel will support tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

Recent economic news has been on the positive side. Credit card purchases (in real terms, sa) increased by 1.2% in May following 0.2% in April (revised up from zero). Trend data points to growth of 1.1% saar in March-May following growth of 0.7% in the previous three months. Private consumption i...

The TSE should decide against former President Bolsonaro, the STF is expected to conclude the issue regarding the national nursing salary floor today, and the House may approve the new fiscal framework on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2023

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) should decide on the ineligibility of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the loss of his political rights for eight years, starting in 2022. Yesterday, the trial continued with a score of 3-1 against the former president. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is expe...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi expat surge continues, strong UAE and Abu Dhabi GDP, Gulf leaders call Putin
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders were among the first to call Putin after the Wagner mutiny. * There is a renewed threat of an oil blockade in Libya. Guyana said it won’t join OPEC. * The Saudi expat labor force rose by 4.6% q/q and 13.1% y/...

Topic of the week: CCA currencies off their peak, mild depreciation on the way
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jun 2023

The CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA WEEKLY starts with the topic of the week, which discusses currency behavior in individual CCA economies. In particular, given the strong appreciation observed in the last year or so, we investigate the drivers of that robust currency performance and evaluate the degr...

Ukraine claims to be advancing as diplomacy stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

On June 29 Ukraine said it is moving forward in Donbas. Ukraine is attacking around Bakhmut: a city Russia took at enormous cost in 2023. Russia says it killed 2 Ukrainian generals and 50 officers in a missile strike on Kramatorsk on June 27. Ukraine says all those killed were civilians. Russia i...

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