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Important meeting with the EU Commission is scheduled for this Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023 · 1 response

The position of the stars once again does not look highly favourable for the Fidesz government on EU matters. A most recent call by four factions of the European Parliament to remove Olivér Várhelyi, the EU's neighbourhood and enlargement commissioner, a Hungarian diplomat and PM Orbán's nominee ...

Putin meets Hungarian PM in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023 · 1 response

On October 17 Putin arrived in Beijing for a Belt and Road Initiative conference. 28 national leaders were there.  Putin met Orban. The head of the gas company Gazprom and the nuclear power agency Rosatom also attended the meeting. Hungary has the best relations with Russia of any EU country. Hun...

A sharp rate cut (if any) next week appears off the table
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023

Deputy Governor Andrew Abir spoke with the macro forecasters today, stressing the importance of market stability over other central bank goals (at present). It was clear from his words and the following statement, that a sharp rate cut on Monday is off the table (we cannot rule out a minor 0.25% ...

Haddad met with congressional government leaders to discuss the legislative agenda, Barroso postponed the vote on the FGTS case to November 8, and Tarcísio should submit a bill for the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2023

Yesterday, October 18, the Ministers of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, discussed the legislative agenda of interest to the Planalto Palace with government leaders in the legislature. Initially, the FGTS matter was scheduled to be adjudicated in the Supre...

Pithy data commentary-October 17, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2023

We comment on the key data and news events in the CCA: Armenia: Fitch argues rating resilient to Nagorno Karabakh conflict Armenia: Yield curve does signal (modestly) higher longer-term risk Armenia: Civil Contract party finds a path to victory, nominates mayor of Yerevan Armenia: Cent...

Georgia's Supreme Court allows impeachment of President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2023

On October 16 it was ruled that Georgia's president, Salome Zurabashvili, violated the constitution by traveling abroad without the permission of Parliament. In September 2023 the ruling party, Georgian Dream, announced its intention to remove the president from office. Parliament can now vote to...

Economics: Inflation is a major concern, with core prices sticky, consumption demand and oil prices strong, and the public deficit continuing to swell
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

One of the main concerns looming over the economy in the final stretch of 2023 and throughout 2024 is the direction of inflation, with its implications for monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rates and, ultimately, economic growth. While continuing to recede, core inflation’s recent traject...

The impact of the war in the Middle East on Brazil and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on the bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. Lula has until October 20 to sanction or veto the so-called "Time Frame". In the STF, the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS stands out. And, at the TSE, new cases ...

Politics: Bereft of a coherent foreign policy, Mexico stumbles on the world stage and reverts to policy stances of the 1970s
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

The disdain that President López Obrador has displayed toward the issues involved in Mexico's relationship with the world is summarized in his frequently used phrase to justify his indifference on the subject: "The best foreign policy is domestic policy." The consequences of the absence of any pl...

What do the Yield Curves Say?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

In the past four weeks, the nominal yield curve (based on the DI rate) has shifted steadily upward. That movement can be partly attributed to the continuous upward shift of the real yield curve, combined with the same upward movement of the implicit inflation rates. We attribute the rising real i...

The government is trying to vote on the bill that institutes a tax on closed-end and offshore funds, the STF may vote on the FGTS correction case this week, and Friday is the deadline for Lula to veto the Time Frame bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on a bill in the House that deals with the taxation of closed-end and offshore funds (PL nº 4,173/23). Another important topic for the market is the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS accounts. The case will be on the Supreme Federal Cour...

A rate cut appears imminent
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Oct 2023

1. We expect rates to decline by 0.5%-0.75% by next week in an effort to support the economy due to the sharp decline in activity. 2. Inflation in September surprised on the downside, declining to 3.8% y/y from 4.1%, and will facilitate monetary easing. 3. The recent outbreak of hostilities...

Russians attack Avdiivka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2023

Russia is attacking the city in East Ukraine. Putin has made statements about it. He usually does not make a statement about a battle unless it is particularly important. Russia has troops on three sides of the city. Ukraine claims to have destroyed a lot of Russian tanks and artillery pieces nea...

Maharlika Investment Fund critics—are they right?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2023

This In-Brief is a follow-up to our previous In-Brief of October 14, 2023. The two government financial institutions (GFIs), Land Bank of the Philippines (Landbank) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) were reported to be seeking regulatory relief from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BS...

Keep calm and carry on
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2023 · 2 responses

Industrial production and retail sales were both weak in August, with the latter shrinking sharply, m/m, and the ongoing divergence between the two thus reversing somewhat. Whether this signals the beginning of a sharp downturn remains to be seen, however. The current account balance posted a ...

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