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China and the Wagner coup
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2023

The Wagner coup in Russia was an awkward, embarrassing, and potentially destabilizing moment for China. China’s quiet support for Russia—while adhering to the letter of U.S. sanctions—was a balancing act that has thus far played in China’s favor. As Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment note...

Uzbek President re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023

On July 9 an election took place, and the result came on July 10. As expected, Shavkat Mirziyoyev was decisively re-elected. He will begin his third term. He took office in 2016. His term will last 7 years and he will be allowed to seek another one in 2030. Turnout was said by the election commis...

Watching Vilnius, reserves and the budget
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2023

The politics author returns to work by discussing the potential electoral impact of the huge tax hikes at first. These will be highly painful to AKP voters in large urban centers, he thinks, but President Erdogan has other ways to engineer a victory at the March 2024 local elections. While it ...

Rate hike likely on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023

We see a 60% probability of a 0.25% rate hike on Monday to 5.0%. What supports further tightening? Inflation remains sticky and accelerating in the service sectors. Granted, core inflation did slow to 4.9% y/y in May from 5.3% in April, but this was due to a sharp deceleration of core goods to 1....

S&P affirmed BBB-/Stable, but watch out for the details
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023

On Friday, July 7, S&P did not change its Hungary sovereign credit rating, exactly as expected. This could be taken as completely market-neutral, but the agency's appraisal was not entirely innocent this time. S&P actually said that its Hungary macro forecast is based on the assumption that the E...

Russia bombards Ukraine as both sides face shortages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023

On July 8 Ukraine said 8 or more people were killed when Russia struck a housing area in Donetsk with rockets. Russia maintains it only targets military sites. However, Russia's equipment is faulty, and it could simply be missing its target a lot. Ukraine's counter-offensive is in the south of th...

Zelensky visits Black Sea island to mark 500 days of war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023

On July 8 he made a surprise to Snake Island. The 700 m by 700 m island is crucial in ensuring control of the eastern part of the Black Sea. A Russian warship famously asked its Ukrainian defenders to surrender on the first day of the war and they replied, ''Go F*** yourselves!'' Snake Island was...

Zelensky in Istanbul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023

On July 7 the Ukrainian President met his Turkish counterpart. Zelensky had been in the Czech Republic on July 6 to thank the Czech Republic for arming Ukraine. Putin's spokesman said that Russia shall follow the talks with a keen eye. He said that Russia really treasures its relationship with Tu...

The House approved the Tax Reform proposal, the votes on the CARF bill and the new fiscal framework were postponed to August, and some members of Congress have vacation trips planned for this weekend, reducing the quorum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2023

The first round of voting on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Tax Reform was approved by a large margin. There were 382 votes in favor. In the second round of voting, there were 375 votes in favor. The approval of the proposal in the House is a defeat for former President Jair Bolso...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends "lollipop" oil cuts, KSA & UAE post strong PMIs, Qatar Airways hits record revenue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jul 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended its additional 1m b/d oil cut into August, and Russia pledged an extra 500k. * Oil has risen for a second week, with Brent touching $77, still below the Saudi fiscal breakeven. * Iran has attempted t...

South African forex reserves are out of sync with rising external vulnerabilities
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

Amidst elevated volatility, including a marked weakening of the rand over the past months, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank still has no intention of intervening by using the country’s reserves, which include gold and other foreign reserves, as a buffer against foreign exchange pre...

Uzbekistan Primer
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

As Uzbekistan heads into the Sun Preseidential Elections, we have taken this as an opportunity to provide a deep dive into the country. These are our key takeaways: Uzbekistan seems to find itself in a sweet spot as the opening of the commodity-exporting country in 2016/17 has started to bea...

Disinflation met positive expectations in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023

CPI-inflation for June was reported this morning exactly as private sector analysts expected, at 0.3% mom, 20.1% yoy, falling from 21.5% yoy in the previous month. In fact, this was also the figure expected by the MNB for June in its recently issued Q2 inflation report, and it was only moderately...

Russia political pandemic update: Perplex, perplex, perplex
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2023

After nearly a year and a half since the start of the special military operation, it looks as though its timing and outcome are becoming less and less clear and obvious. Russia’s standoff with the West is set to last for generations, and what now happens in Ukraine might look secondary for histor...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2023

The attempted military coup accompanied by a further escalation in Ukraine (with some media speculation about a potential “incident” at the nuclear plant) pushed the ruble exchange rate down. Ruble reached the R/$90 mark for the first time since March 2022. The narrowing of the current account su...

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