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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...

CCA Highlights: Armenia still in the throes of deflation, Azerbaijan to face early presidential elections, Georgia earns EU candidate status, Tajikistan names new cost of Rogun dam
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank of Armenia cuts policy rates by 25bpts to 9.25 percent Armenia: Deflation returns in Nov Armenia: Outflows to UAE reach record highs Armenia: Authorities upbeat on 2024 growth prospects Armenia: ...

Moldova adopts pro-Western defense strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

On December 15 the Parliament voted to make the change. Moldova has officially been neutral until now. The former Soviet republic still does not seek to join NATO.  The Moldovan government aspires to join the EU. The Harvard-educated president is an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause, too. How...

November’s low CPI, surprising on the downside, supports monetary easing
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Dec 2023

1. November’s CPI came in below expectations as core inflation moderated significantly. 2. This renews expectations for a rate cut in January (in two weeks), assuming low shekel volatility. 3. The CA surplus and net FDI are expected to reach 5.5% GDP this year, but geopolitical/political u...

Polish blockade of Ukrainian trucks continues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

The Polish blockades of Ukrainian trucks continues. Polish truckers have been blocking Ukrainian trucks from entering or leaving Poland since November 6. Ukraine needs to export and import goods via Poland. The Polish authorities have done very little to stop this illegal blockade. Polish trucker...

Looking beyond the Chile’s constitutional moment
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

On Sunday, for the second time in as many years, Chileans have voted on a constitutional proposal designed by a democratically elected assembly. And for the second time, they have rejected it, with 55.8% against, versus 44.2% voting in favor. Whereas the 2022 proposal seemed to be far more progre...

Oil workers in Kazakhstan go on strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

On December 11 hundreds of people stopped work at West Oil Software in north-west Kazakhstan. West Oil Software provides logistics for oil and gas companies. Manghystau Region, where the strike is taking place, has been the scene of similar strikes over the past 20 years. The police have tried to...

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Correction: The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

Inflation cooldown in 2024 rests on oil and politics
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

In November, thanks to near stability in the parallel exchange rate (up by only 1.3 percent), the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 3.5 percent from the 5.9-percent rate observed in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) intervened aggressively in the foreign exchange markets during the f...

Fiscal déjà vu
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Last November the government had to resort to a loan from Corporacion Financiera Nacional to obtain $392 million to pay public sector salaries. This is an operation that is not at all clear as it is registered as bonds in the Central Bank. Such a situation was normal during the 1990s, but it seem...

The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the y...

Health care heads for Never Never Land
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The government’s healthcare reform proposal has survived its first crucial test in Congress: it was finally approved by the House on December 5th. Now it will be reviewed by the Senate, where harder discussions will take place in March. Though this is a positive for the government, a formal step ...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023

President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...