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Time to get down to business
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2023

After a week spent puking his lungs out in violent spasms of pneumonia, the politics author returns to his job, predicting President Erdogan will approve Sweden’s accession to NATO before or during the Vilnius Summit. He may need some encouraging words from Biden though, re. the F-16 order, to ta...

Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

Inflation in May surprises on the downside Core inflation slows to 4.9% y/y from 5.3% in April. Much of the surprise was due to lower-than-expected seasonal impact. Prices of goods have moderated, while prices of services (including rental prices) have accelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2....

Ramaphosa in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

On June 17 the President of South Africa met Putin. President Ramaphosa was accompanied by the presidents of the Comoros Islands, Zambia and Senegal. Ramaphosa said that the war should end as soon as possible. Ramaphosa's 10-point peace proposal was said by Moscow to be difficult to implement. Ta...

Tight security and narrow domestic focus at SPIEF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 14 the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF) opened. The forum was instituted in 1998. The 2023 edition was the least impressive yet. Gone are the days when major world leaders attended. It was known as Russia's Davos. Putin addressed the forum. Mobile phones were blocked before his s...

African leaders visit Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 16 African leaders arrived as a part of a mission to negotiate peace. They are due to travel to Russia. The delegates are the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros Islands. When they arrived in Kyiv a barrage of missiles hit the city. Ukraine condemned the missile at...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Chinese investments, Kuwait reform roadmap, IAE highlights Oman’s hydrogen potential
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly touched $71, its lowest since 2021, on Monday but has since rebounded to $76. * OPEC and IEA data showed that May voluntary production cuts were implemented. * Moody’s retained a positive outlook on the Saudi ...

The STF will begin trial on the national nursing salary floor, the Senate should vote on the new fiscal framework next week, and the TSE may decide on former President Bolsonaro’s ineligibility case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2023

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will adjudicate in the virtual plenary the case that deals with the nursing salary floor. The trial runs until June 23. In the Senate, it is worth highlighting the progress on the vote on the new fiscal framework. Yesterday, rapporteur Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) sai...

Webinar replay: Caucasus and Central Asia - Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jun 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ivan Tchakarov discussing the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region. How do the economies of the key countries in the region including Armenia, Azerbaijan, ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

Jun 2 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure: Kazakhstan plans to start developing new copper deposits in 2027 and to double copper production by 2030 President: Mr. Tokayev urged the EU to support the idea of long-term supplies of Kazakh oil via CPC to Europe President: Mr. Tokayev said Kazakhs...

Russian missiles strike Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

On June 14 the missiles did little damage. US-supplied air defense systems fended off most Russian missiles. Russia fired Kalibr missiles from a warship. Ukraine claims to have shot them down. Ukraine says 3 people in Odesa were killed by the missile that got through. The United Nations noted tha...

El Salvador Brief: New actions to favor re-election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado President Nayib Bukele proposed a reduction in the number of municipalities in El Salvador. The bill was approved on Wednesday, June 14th. Starting March 2024, the country will have 44 local governments compared to 262 nowadays. The name of the municipalities...

More clarity about the MNB's balance sheet and its impact on the government budget
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

Even though the MNB reports what is called its statistical balance sheet monthly, it is essentially impossible to tell from that by how much the government will have to recapitalise the Bank and when, in view of the latter's losses suffered because of its current sterilisation policy. The reason ...

May’s CPI surprises sharply downwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

Core inflation moderates sharply Inflation in May was up 0.2% m/m, below the consensus range of 0.5%-0.6% (we had expected 0.5%). Inflation in the past 12 months declined to 4.6% from 5.0% last month. May’s CPI was influenced by stability in food prices (expectations were for a 0.5% increase or m...

Uzbekistan: Central bank holds policy rate steady, but sends a dovish signal
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) kept the policy rate unchanged on Jun 15th, but signaled a cut is likely at the next policy meeting. The CBU kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent, but modified its message to signal a good probability that it may ease monetary policy at its next poli...

S&P reported an improvement in Brazil’s rating, Lira highlighted two votes that are important in the House this semester, and Lula will hold a ministerial meeting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2023

The government celebrated the news that Standard & Poor's reported an improvement in Brazil's BB- rating, from stable to positive. When commenting on the report published by S&P, Haddad recognized the work of the president of the House, Arthur Lira, the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, and the Supreme Fe...

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