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National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Tajikistan the weakest link in the CCA in terms of its ability to repay foreign debt?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

In 2020 the World Bank stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high." Ever since, this assessment has consistently carried through a variety of analyses undertaken both by IFIs and rating agencies. For example, in its most recent review of the economy, the WB re-affirmed its judgme...

Lula vetoed the extension of the payroll tax exemption, November 30 is the deadline to present edits to the 2024 Federal Budget, and the PSDB is set to elect its new leadership
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2023

President Lula vetoed, in full, the extension of the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy and for city halls in cities with a population of up to 142,600. The total impact is estimated at R$ 11 billion. Next Thursday, November 30, is the deadline for presenting edits to the 2024 Fe...

A puzzling picture in the economy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

We see remarkable strength in the household data—employment and consumer sentiment—over the past year. Alongside this, private investment is showing strong gains, which is a measure of the optimism of private firms, and also augments the demand side. However, this is not yet a broad-based exp...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Putin says he is open to peace talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

On November 22 Putin addressed the G20 Summit by videolink. He said that everyone needed to consider ways to end the war, which he called "tragic". He blamed Ukraine for refusing peace talks. It is true that since mid 2022 Ukraine has refused to talk until Russia withdraws from Ukraine, including...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

As the federal budget was in surplus for the last three months, it acted as a liquidity absorber from the money market, which pushed short-term interest rates above the key rate. Since mid-November RUONIA fluctuated within the 15.01-15.08% range, while earlier in November it was more than 50 bps ...

Philippine macroeconomy: not exactly a Goldilocks scenario
PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The first three quarters' data on the Philippine output performance shows some recovery, although it would be difficult to achieve the lower end of the output target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Growth drivers are challenged on both the domestic and global fronts. Inflation for the first ten months r...

The CAE may vote on the offshore funds bill, Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO, and the STF is expected to adjudicate the ICMS cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds and the sports betting bill today. The two proposals can also be put to a vote in the Senate Plenary. Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), is expected to submit his repo...

Discord infects Erdogan and Bahceli, too
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2023

With roughly four months left to Turkey’s fateful municipal elections, the discord so prevalent among main opposition parties now infected governing partners Erdogan and Bahceli, too. Erdogan desperately wants a new Constitution to grant him eligibility for a third term—and beyond. He opened the ...

Germany to give Ukraine USD 1.3 billion in arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2023

On November 21 the announcement was made by the German Defense Minister, who visited Kyiv. He was marking 10 years since the Euromaidan protests began that toppled the pro-Russian president, Victor Yanukovich. On November 20 the US pledged another USD 100 million. That is a drop in the ocean comp...

MNB rate decision as expected, vice governor hinted at base rate's future path
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2023

Today's rate decision was another 75 bps reduction of the base rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate again, to 11.5%. So far, no surprise at all, analysts and everyone were almost completely sure about this outcome. However, the more interesting part was what vice governor Virág said in...

“...E La Nave Va”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2023

“…And the ship sails on” The IBC-Br published last week leaves no doubts: GDP growth is clearly decelerating (Graph 1). After all, the path through which the restrictive monetary policy reduces inflation is the decline of actual GDP in relation to potential GDP. Even though the successive redu...

Senator Vieira submitted his final report on the taxation of offshore funds bill, the Senate will conclude discussions on the PEC that limits monocratic decisions in the STF, and Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 20, Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) submitted his report to the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) on the bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. He did not propose any changes to the merits of the text that was approved in the House. Also today, th...

In a historic ballotage the libertarian newcomer defeated a united Peronism, signaling the end of a “toxic status quo”
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2023

In last Sunday's runoff election, the Libertarian Javier Milei managed a surprisingly solid victory against the incumbent Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa. With a result of 55.7% against 44.3% (accounting for only the valid vote), Milei obtained a better-than-expected lead of nearly 11pp. ...

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