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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Analysis of growth drivers points to upside risks to economic performance in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

The publication of the national accounts data for 4Q23 allows us to investigate in more detail the breakdown of growth drivers across Caucasus and Central Asia economies for the year (2023) as a whole. The most salient feature of our analysis is that the counter-intuitive (and counter-cyclical) i...

Ukraine passes law to draft more people
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2024

On April 11 the Verkhovna Rada voted for the bill that has been debated since 2023. The objective is to increase the size of the army. The army is struggling because of the major Russian advantage in munitions. There was a clause in the bill to allow soldiers who had served 3 years to leave the a...

ECJ rules against sanctions on 2 Russian billionaires
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

On April 10 the European Court of Justice ruled that sanctions on Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven are unlawful because the European Union did not provide sufficient evidence that they should be sanctioned. They were sanctioned in 2022 only 2 days after the Ukraine War began. The men were also sanct...

Lula meets with ministers to discuss a package of measures on credit, the government announced the new Voa Brasil program, and the FPE presents five bills on Tax Reform regulations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2024

This morning, President Lula meets with Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services Geraldo Alckmin, among others, to discuss a package of measures on credit, more specifically, microcredit and credit for microenterprises. On social media, the Minister of Ports an...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

The FX market remains relatively stable despite rising oil prices. The Western sanctions, combined with the damage to some oil refineries from drone attacks, reduced the profitability of the oil companies. As a result, the supply of hard currency from their side remains subdued. Nevertheless, the...

CPI-inflation marginally down in March: no surprise at all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

CPI-inflation for March came out this morning at 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy, the latter marginally down from last month's 3.7%. This was exactly the same as analysts' median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly poll. What was driving prices up was unregulated services, household energy and fuels, ...

The House approved urgent status for the Perse and payroll tax bills, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax MP is expected to be installed today, and Lira said that the working group on the Fake News bill should be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2024

The House approved urgent status for the bills on the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the payroll tax exemption for small municipalities. The merits of the two proposals will be analyzed next week. Today, the Joint Committee on the provisional measure (MP) th...

How close is the unification and liberalization of the exchange market?
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Apr 2024

Favorable financial indicators—the reduction of the gap between the official exchange rate and the pseudo-free exchange rates (the CCL and the "blue"), the accumulation of reserves and the decrease in country risk—are encouraging, but they should not be taken as indicators that the convergence of...

Kazakhstan macro: a new economic agenda for a new government
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 10 Apr 2024

In early February, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government headed by Mr. Smailov, who had been in charge of the cabinet of ministers since January 2022. The position was handed over to Mr. Bektenov, who had served as the head of the presidential administration si...

US says it is giving captured Iranian arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2024

On April 9 the US military made the announcement. The shipments include ammunition and small arms. These Iranian-manufactured weapons were used by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Yemeni Army captured the weapons in battles against the Houthis. Ukraine is grateful for shipments but small arms inflict ...

Peru: pension funds withdrawal to be approved on Thursday
PERU · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024 · 1 response

As expected, today Congress scheduled the vote on the pension funds withdrawal bill at its Thursday congressional plenary. The bill calls for pension funds’ contributors to be able to withdraw up to four Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, or tax-inflation-indexed units). This would allow eac...

Flooding in Russia and Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

On April 3 serious flooding impacted southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan. The abrupt thaw has caused snow to melt faster than usual. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated in Russia and 86,000 in Kazakhstan. Over 10,000 houses have been flooded. Some regions have declared a state of ...

President Lula participates in the signing of the MP on Renewable Energy and Tariff Reduction, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax exemption was postponed until Thursday, and Pacheco committed to the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2024

Today President Lula participates in the signing of the Provisional Measure (MP) on Renewable Energy and Tariff Reduction. It sets aside resources from the privatization of Eletrobras to reduce electricity bills by 3.5% in 2024. The installation of the Joint Committee to analyze the payroll tax r...

Smooth federal budget performance in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

Minfin reported that the 1Q24 federal budget revenues accounted for about R8.7 trln (24.9% of the annual plan set at nearly R35.1 trln). The figure looks decent, as in 2024, the revenue target exceeds last year’s actual revenue figure by 20.4%. In 1Q24, the government collected R2.9 trln of the o...

Poor budget, strengthening forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

The central government's cash budget did not do particularly well in March and Q1, according to fresh data from the Finance MInistry. In annualised ratio-to-GDP terms, the March deficit was recorded at 9.7%, marginally down from 9.9% one year earlier, and the Q1 total reached 12.2%, exactly the s...

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