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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rising energy prices are affecting the BOP, inflation, central bank policy and growth
HUNGARY · Report · 26 Sep 2023

The renewed rise of oil and gas prices is set to have a moderately negative effect on the BOP, inflation and growth prospects, as well as on central bank policies. No major revision of plans seems to be needed, but the MNB will likely become keener to keep the forint stable in the short term, pos...

Russian macro: Budget deficit to shrink in 2024 and beyond amid higher revenues, moderate spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Sep 2023

In recent weeks, Russian government officials have made several statements that sounded quite optimistic. Strangely enough, the authorities expressed some concerns about the weakened ruble and started talking about some potential administrative measures to “stabilize” the currency. However, such ...

The AGU filed a case in the STF to overturn the limit on civil liens, the leaders of the House will meet today to discuss this week’s voting agenda, and Augusto Aras’s term as the PGR ends today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2023

Yesterday, the Attorney General's Office (AGU) asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF), in a direct act of unconstitutionality (ADI), to overturn the limit for civil liens established under the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government and proposed the payment of part of the court sentences as a financial exp...

The shekel will react to progress surrounding a possible Saudi deal
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Sep 2023 · 1 response

1. The shekel appreciated last week, in part due to optimism regarding a possible normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. 2. If this trend continues it will increase the chances of a rate-hold decision on October 23. 3. The labor market remains tight, with unemployment down and job va...

Politics: Marcelo Ebrard and the MC party are left charting out increasingly complicated decision trees
MEXICO · Report · 26 Sep 2023

After he lost the final opinion polls that formed the basis of the Morena presidential nomination process, Marcelo Ebrard stated there was no longer any place for him in the governing party and that he, nevertheless, would be on the ballot in 2024. But within a matter of days, it became clear tha...

Armenians fleeing Nagorno Karabakh
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2023

On September 26 thousands of Armenian civilians left Nagorno Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but has a huge Armenian majority. Its population is 120,000. It is estimated that 13,000 have fled since September 22. The Prime Minister of Armenia said ethnic cleansing is being committed in...

The shekel will react to progress surrounding a possible Saudi deal
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2023

Geopolitics: Last week, the shekel appreciated by 0.7% against the basket of currencies, despite declining global equities (usually correlated with shekel weakness as institutions must purchase FX in order to maintain their FX exposure target). This appreciation is due in part to increasing optim...

Economics: Growth in aggregate demand in the 2nd quarter concentrated in total investment and private consumption
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2023

The aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter, released on September 18, showed very significant gross fixed capital formation growth in construction and in the imported machinery and equipment component, as well as in private consumption. Within private consumption, very high gr...

Russia says that the West is in effect fighting Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2023

On September 24 the Russian Foreign Minister made the claim and said, "They are fighting us.'' He cited the USD 100 billion Western countries have given in arms to Ukraine. He noted that the United Kingdom and the US are giving Ukraine intelligence and there are Western military advisors in Ukrai...

Zero deficit at risk and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula is expected to announce his appointments to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office. Depending on whom he appoints, there may be changes to the ministerial team. On Friday, September 29, Lula will undergo surgery. In the House, the new guarantees framewo...

Transition government: Bridge over troubled waters
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The president elected on October 15 will have to confront the problems of violence from organized crime and violence from nature. Experts have announced that El Niño this year will be stronger than in previous years, although not as extreme as those of 1982 and 1997. On the other hand, violenc...

Lula should announce appointments to the STF and PGR this week, the House may vote on the legal framework for guarantees, and the Senate Environment Committee may vote on the carbon credit market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula should is expected to announce the appointment for the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR). Currently, the two strongest names to replace Justice Rosa Weber are the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino (PSB), and the Attorney General of the Federal Gov...

COPOM, Neutral Interest Rate and Potential GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

In the statement issued after the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank pledged to maintain cuts of 50 basis points per meeting until the end of the year, with the SELIC rate reaching 11.75%. It also warned of the effects of the increase of the neutral interest rate in the United States on Brazil’...

Nagorno Karabakh peace deal seems to be working
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2023

On September 23 the Armenian Forces in the region said they were implementing the terms of the ceasefire. Injured civilians are being evacuated to Armenia. Russian peacekeepers are assisting, and so is the Red Cross. The Armenian forces are handing over their arms to Russian peacekeepers. Aid is ...

Missed opportunities, improved reserves
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan’s New York tour was not a failure, but as the politics author sees it, he missed three huge chances to change the way Turkey and the President himself are perceived. In the immediate term, Swedish membership to NATO and its price of selling Turkey F-16s is becoming convoluted, b...

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