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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Oct 2023

Sep 21 KTZ: The National railway company in January-August increased grain loading and transportation by 45% y-o-y to over 7.7 million tons. Sep 22 Government: Kazakhstan plans to develop 75 companies to develop cotton growing and the textile industry, which will deliver over 40K new jobs and abo...

The House approved the Guarantee Framework, the Desenrola law was sanctioned by Lula, and the government is hoping to approve the bill on the taxation of offshore companies and exclusive funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2023

Yesterday, the House approved the guarantee framework. The bill is one of the priorities of the Ministry of Finance and aims to facilitate the granting of credit in the country in order to increase family consumption. Also yesterday, the law that deals with the Desenrola program, a debt renegotia...

Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland agree on grain exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Oct 2023

On October 3 the two countries concurred that Ukrainian cereal products can be shipped via Poland to other countries. Much Ukrainian grain is sold to the Middle East and Africa. It no longer needs to be inspected at the Polish border but will be inspected at a Lithuanian port before being shipped...

SAUDI ARABIA: Deficits projected to return due to higher spending plans
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 03 Oct 2023

* The Saudi ministry of finance published its usual pre-budget statement and mid-year performance review. * The government now projects deficits in 2023-26 whereas previously it was targeting surpluses. * Projected expenditure has been revised up by 13% on average in 2023-25. * Revenue is only...

Armenia to join the ICC
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2023

On October 2 Parliament voted 60-22 to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Court. This means that Armenia will probably join the ICC. It remains for the President of Armenia to sign this into law. The President usually does so. If he does, then the law will take effect 60 days later. The...

Service inflation surges to 86.5%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2023

Consumer prices rose by 4.8%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus forecast, with 12-month CPI-inflation increasing further to 61.5% -- the highest level since the beginning of the year -- from 58.9% in August. Producer prices rose at a more moderate rate of 3.4% in the month, wi...

The Senate approved the Desenrola bill yesterday, Lira spoke with the rapporteur of the bill on the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds, and Lula vetoed two provisions of the fiscal framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2023

Yesterday, October 2, as expected, the Senate approved the bill that deals with the Desenrola program and addresses the limit on interest rates charged to finance the outstanding balance of credit card bills and other post-paid payment instruments. Yesterday, the president of the House, Arthur Li...

Initial readings from the first presidential debate
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2023

Sunday's opening presidential debate gave a glimpse into the electoral strategies of the five presidential candidates. As anticipated, the topics addressed were the economy, education, and human rights and democratic coexistence. The second debate will be held next Sunday, October 8, covering th...

The fiscal deficit target has been raised: this was always a bridge too far
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2023

This morning, KSH reported a general government deficit ratio of 6.3% of GDP, by EU methodology, for H1 2023. Immediately beforehand, the Finance Ministry announced an increase in this year's annual deficit target to 5.2% of GDP from the previous 3.9%, which was an amended version of the original...

Politics: The most recent GEA-ISA survey shows candidate Claudia Sheinbaum with an initial advantage
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

The most recent GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters shows presidential approval bounced 5 percentage points to 62%, along with a significant shift in the reasons respondents cited for commending AMLO’s performance away from general empathic associations to tangible factors arising from ...

Economics: Mixed 2024 economic outlook as trade/FDI opening is combined with heightened risk on the public finance front
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Mexico's economic outlook includes some striking contrasts and uncertainties for year-end 2023, and especially for 2024. On one hand, we expect a certain degree of economic growth although at a slowing pace, and for macro-financial variables (interest rates, exchange rate) to remain stable, with ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Evidence is mounting that Brazil is facing a more severe fiscal problem than was assumed at the start of the year, due to the fragility of the fiscal framework as a brake on spending by the executive and legislative branches. The country seems fated to suffer from inefficient spending, with littl...

Government agenda put to a vote and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

This should be a busy week in Congress. The House may vote on the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds—measures presented by the Ministry of Finance. Another important bill is the one that deals with the guarantee framework. In the Senate, the priority is the vote on the Desenrola program and...

The NBU Switches to Controlled Fluctuation FX Regime
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

The NBU has announced a controlled fluctuation FX regime beginning October 3rd, abandoning the fixed exchange rate regime that had been in place since the full-fledged Russian invasion in February 2022. While the move was anticipated, the timing was unpredictable, catching observers by surprise. ...

Pithy data commentary - October 2, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Oct 2023

We comment on the key data and news in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Armenia loses NK, faces higher medium-term risks Armenia: Mayoral Elections in Yerevan signify a Pyrrhic victory for the ruling Civil Contract party Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 10.9 perc...

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