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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is "Wrong" with Azerbaijan? - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Azerbaijan may be enjoying the spoils of victory over Nagorno Karabakh, but its economy has little to celebrate. GDP growth has expanded by a mere 0.8% YoY Ytd, rendering Azerbaijan the worst-performing economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In this week's report, which is a slide presentation...

A season of offense or the eve of a deal?
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Having calibrated the political climate, the Maduro government has begun its campaign by launching a political offensive. Its weapon is the new National Electoral Council (CNE) board, which has started pursuing political aims. First, it is seeking to disrupt the opposition's primary election p...

UK Defense Minister in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2023

On September 28 Grant Shapps met Zelensky. The two discussed enhancing Ukraine's air defense capability. Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the British.  Ukraine suffered many attacks on its energy infrastructure in the winter of 2022-23. It is possible that Russia may try this again but the att...

Kazakhstan macro: long-awaited tenge depreciation to boost budget revenues in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Sep 2023

The Kazakh Finance Ministry recently published regular monthly budgetary statistics for August, including the cash flow data of the National Fund, the execution of the republican and aggregate local budgets, and the consolidated budget. Statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow reveals that ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Sep 2023

A series of rate hikes by the CBR had helped to stabilize the situation on the FX market, and in the previous couple of weeks, the ruble hovered slightly above R/$96. Nevertheless, the authorities are still discussing some measures that could either increase the supply of foreign currency or limi...

Economic performance mixed, with Bukele likely to be reelected
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Sep 2023

El Salvador’s economy turned in a weak performance this year, influenced by adverse international economic conditions, especially in the country’s main trading and financial partner, the United States. The effect on local activity was both direct and indirect, the latter via slower growth in othe...

The Russian economy keeps adjusting to fundamental external changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Sep 2023

Rosstat reported that in 8M23, the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it was up by 7.3%. Industry grew in 8M23 and August by 3.0% and 5.6% y-o-y. The mining segment was still slightly down (1.2%-1.3% y-o-y in August and 8M23), while manufacturing grew by 10.3% y...

Lula’s meeting with Campos Neto suggests a new phase in the government and Central Bank relationship, the House may vote on the bill that deals with offshore taxation next week, and Congress is dissatisfied with the STF’s decisions on several issues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2023

The expectation is that the meeting between Lula and Roberto Campos Neto will be the beginning of a new phase in the relationship between the government and the Central Bank. According to PT leaders, the House may vote next week on the bill that deals with offshore taxation. The bill should incor...

Expect a pickup in economic activity over the rest of 2023
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Sep 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Data releases in August suggest that we will see an increase in economic activity over the rest of the year, and perhaps even a partial reversal of the relative weakening this year of consumption as a share of GDP. There is a sense that the PBoC an...

Azerbaijan arrests leader of Nagorno Karabakh
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2023

On September 27 Reuben Vardanyan was arrested as he tried to go to Armenia. Vardanyan was a Russian citizen of Armenian ethnicity. He renounced his Russian citizenship when he became Minister of State for Artsakh (i.e., the Armenian backed entity in Nagorno Karabakh) in 2022. He is a big prize, a...

Belarus tried to force dissidents abroad to come home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2023

On September 14 Minsk announced that its passport can only be renewed in Belarus. Belarusians abroad were previously able to renew their passports at the embassy. Exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya said this is an attempt to make dissidents return to the country, where they will be ...

The first EV battery cell plant
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2023

In mid-September, Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited the construction of the new battery plant in Karawang, West Java, Indonesia. This plant is expected to be the largest in Southeast Asia. It is being is built by a joint venture between LG Energy Solution and Hyundai and KIA Motor. The pla...

Unlocking the grain corridor
UKRAINE · Report · 27 Sep 2023

Provisional reports suggest that the main Russian defense line has been breached to the north of Tokmak. Fighting continues, but the redeployment of competent Russian paratrooper divisions from other front sectors to the Tokmak area clearly signifies a crisis there. Meanwhile, in sectors stripped...

Lula will meet with Campos Neto and Haddad today, Haddad will have additional important meetings, and the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal postponed the submission of his report once again
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2023

Today, President Lula will meet with the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto, and with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. The meeting was requested by the president of the BC. It will be an institutional meeting for rapprochement. Before he meets with Lula, Haddad will ...

Signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Sep 2023

High-tech service export growth appears to have stalled. In July, high tech service exports (Israel’s main economic driver making up 8% of GDP including all computer services) declined by 0.9% m/m following growth of 1.8% in June. Annual growth in May-July was only 0.5% saar following growth of 2...

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