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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Federal budget execution numbers look decent
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget was in deficit in 9M23, albeit the latter was narrower than in 8M23 (R1.7 trln versus R2.4 trln), implying that the budget was in surplus in September. It was the second month in a row of a federal budget surplus. Revenue collection improve...

Russia sells gas to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

On October 7 Putin said that Russia will begin the exports, and they will be transported via Kazakhstan. Russia's oil and gas exports have diminished due to Western sanctions and the EU's attempts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. In 2022 gas exports fell 22%.  Putin made the announcement as...

Confusion will be my epitaph
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2023 · 1 response

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format. Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on recession fears, Saudi hikes spending and bids for World Cup, Q2 non-oil GDP surges in Abu Dhabi but not Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil plummeted by over 10% because of worries about the global economy. * Saudi Arabia hiked its spending plans sharply and now sees deficits of -2% of GDP in 2023-26. * JP Morgan is considering including Saudi sukuk in it...

Putin says more nuclear tests needed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6 Putin made the announcement, saying Russia must prove that its nuclear arms work properly. Russia signed a treaty banning more nuclear tests but he said Russia may withdraw from this because the US has not ratified it. He was speaking at the Valadai Club's annual meeting.  The 1996 C...

The Minister of Justice launched a plan to combat criminal organizations, today is the deadline for changes to electoral rules for the 2024 elections, and there will be a federal holiday next week on Wednesday, October 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2023

This week ends with the federal government's being pressured regarding public security and with friction between the Legislature and Judiciary. Due to the pressure for measures to combat crime, the Ministry of Justice and Public Security launched on Monday, October 2, a plan to combat criminal or...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia: Key Macro Risk Materializes - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Oct 2023

Armenia has been our cyclical favorite in the upcycle and it still enjoys double-digit GDP growth rates, having posted an estimated 10.4% YoY expansion of the economy over Jan to Aug. However, Yerevan’s fortunes have now changed given the outcome of the 3rd Karabakh war. In this week's report, wh...

As y-o-y inflation slows, NBK cuts the base rate to 16%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate from 16.5% to 16.0%. This move looks quite cautious but justified. On the one hand, from April to September, average monthly inflation remained at 0.6% m-o-m, implying that the annualized 6M moving average inflation fell to 7.4%. The...

Strong protests in Guatemala in support of Bernardo Arevalo
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

October 5th marks the fourth consecutive day of protests and roadblocks of Guatemala's main roads. Several groups are rejecting the intervention of the Attorney General's office in the presidential transition process. During the latest round of raids, the Prosecutor's Office confiscated the votin...

Sabotage or cooperation?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

One month before the scheduled date for the opposition primary, Elvis Amoroso, the National Electoral Council (CNE) president, suddenly announced his willingness to follow up on the requests for technical support made by the National Primary Commission (CNP) months ago. Amoroso proposed to provid...

US funding for Ukraine in doubt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

In March 2023 the US Congress initially refused to vote for the budget. Some in the Republican Party want to reduce or even end funding for Ukrainian weapons. The US Congress avoided a government shutdown when it was agreed to postpone the Ukrainian weapons issue for now. Congress needs to elect ...

Russia to build a naval base in Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

On October 5 the President of Abkhazia announced that Russia intends to build a naval base in Abkhazia. Russia recognized Abkhazia as an independent country, but most of the world regards it as part of the Republic of Georgia. Russia's naval base in Crimea is coming under attack from Ukraine. Rus...

Zelensky at European Political Community Forum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

On October 5 he arrived in Spain for the EPC Forum. He wore his trademark military uniform that he has worn every day since the war began. The EPC was founded in 2022. It includes all countries in Europe except Russia and Belarus and also includesTurkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is hoped that o...

The vote on the bill on the taxation of offshore companies and exclusive funds was postponed, the ICMS complementary bill was approved, and the CCJ approved a PEC that limits the powers of the STF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2023

The vote on the bill dealing with the taxation of offshore companies and exclusive funds was postponed. The postponement is due more to specific complaints about the text than the overall content of the text, which is expected to be approved by the House in October. Yesterday, October 4, the gove...

Is inflation eroding popular support in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2023

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr suffered a major decline in his approval rating as consumer prices in the Philippines weakened his base support. Some 65% of the 1,200 respondents in the September Pulse Asia Survey approved of his performance, but this was down 15 percentage points (ppts) from 80% i...

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