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US journalist interviews Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2024

On January 8 Tucker Carlson interviewed the Russian president. Carlson is a right wing TV presenter who worked for Fox News until 2023. Putin spoke for 30 minutes about his belief that Ukraine is not a real country. There was no doubt about Putin's sincerity when he traced Russia's history from i...

Active legislative week with positive results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf tourism hits new records, Bahrain issues $2bn, Qatar-India LNG deal, no Gaza ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Feb 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Netanyahu called the Hamas ceasefire proposal “delusional” and is preparing to assault Rafah; this helped push oil back up to $82. * The US launched major strikes against Shia militias in Iraq, and Syria and continued to c...

Inflation surprised on the downside again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

The headline CPI-inflation rate for January was reported at 0.7% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, defeating analysts' median expectation of 4.2% yoy (even more our forecast of 4.5% yoy), and representing a sharp drop from 5.5% yoy in December. This means that inflation is now within the MNB's 2-4% med...

The Federal Police has seized Bolsonaro’s passport, next week will be the Carnival holiday, and Lula visited Minas Gerais alongside Rodrigo Pacheco
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Yesterday's Federal Police investigation into an attempted coup d'état had broad political repercussions. President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies were targeted in the investigation. Bolsonaro's passport was seized. Due to the Carnival holiday next week, decisions on the payroll tax exemption, the...

Webinar Replay - Economic reform in Turkey and Argentina: comparative prospects
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Domingo Cavallo discussing economic policy in Argentina and Turkey as the countries try to shake off their reputations for economic mismanagement. Governments in both countries have committed themselves to economi...

CCA Highlights: Aliyev wins presidential elections in Azerbaijan; Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan cut rates; Tajikistan posts robust CA surplus in 3Q23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Feb 2024

We comment on key data and events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 50bpts to 8.75 percent Armenia: Remittances fall significantly in 2023 but remain above longer-term averages Armenia: Western incentives for PM to bolster his image Armenia: Armenia...

President Ramaphosa delivered his last State of the Nation Statement - more promises in a year of critical national elections
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

The State of the National Address (SONA) has become an institution even since the establishment of the democratic order in South Africa. It is an annual occasion for the Members of the Parliament (MPs) to dress up and turn the opening session of the parliament into a mini-national fashion show—di...

New top general appointed in Ukrainian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 8 President Zelensky promoted Oleksandr Syrsky to be the armed forces chief. Zelensky expressed gratitude to the previous armed forces chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky acknowledged in November 2023 rumors of tension between himself and Zaluzhnyi but said the rumors were false. Zelen...

Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...

Good presentation, let’s hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2024

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year under the new Governor. The Bank kept its yearend inflation forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at 36% (midpoint of 30%-42%), and at 14% (midpoint of 7%-21%), respectively, unchanged from the October report, as we surmised earlier. The CBRT fo...

Lula has been traveling the country ahead of the municipal elections, the STF resumes adjudication of a case on dismissals in the public sector, and the strike in the Federal Revenue Service should end today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2024

President Lula has focused his attention on the three largest electoral colleges recently. Last week, for example, Lula went to São Paulo to participate in an event alongside Tarcísio de Freitas. Yesterday, he went to Rio de Janeiro and praised Eduardo Paes (PSD). And today, he will participate i...

New Prime Minister in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 6 Olzhas Bektenov was appointed. Parliament approved Bektenov: 69 voted for him and 7 abstained. None voted against. He vowed that his premiership will be about action not words. He said he will avoid unnecessary meetings and cut bureaucracy. Bektenov said his main task was to carry o...

Surprisingly strong tax revenues in January point to growth recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

January’s fiscal account reflects a surplus of 2.5bn ILS, both due to seasonal factors (low government spending by ministries in the beginning of the year) and to strong revenues of 43.7bn, declining only by 1.5% y/y. Spending for the war reached 6.5bn. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months in...

Pro-peace candidate not allowed to run for Russian presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 8 the Central Election Commission made the announcement because there were many mistakes in the signatures of people who nominated him. Boris Nadezhdin is the candidate and he gathered 105,000 signatures, but the CEC invalidated 15% of them. Many of the signatures came from Russians a...

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