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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Q4 GDP came out even weaker than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024
This morning, KSH reported its first estimate for Q4 GDP growth at 0% qoq, 0.4% yoy, implying a 0.8% decrease of GDP in full-year 2023, following 4.6% growth in 2022, all in real terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As usual, details have not been released at this stage; KSH made only a v...
President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet as anticipated
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024 · 6 responses
Tonight President Dina Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and replaced the following ministers: Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras; Defense, Jorge Luis Chavez; Energy and Mines, Óscar Vera; and Environment, Albina Ruiz. She has taken oath of office this afternoon from the new ministers: José Arista...
Cabinet crisis persists; Chancay port could create a Pacific hub; BCRP to cut 125bp in 2024
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2024
In this report we cover politics, the economy and markets. First, we discuss the crisis gripping President Dina Boluarte’s Cabinet. In our last report, we argued that Boluarte may opt for a reshuffle – but as of this writing, that had not happened. As a consequence of her failure to act, the Cab...
Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024
Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...
A follow-up to last weekend's political story, and a preview of tomorrow's GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024
As we reported on President Novak's sudden resignation on Sunday, we wrote that the case will not have immediate consequences on investors. This still looks correct, yet there has surfaced since then a completely unusual story, which may carry a currently unknown but potentially material signific...
Shrinking trade deficit is shekel positive, at least until imports recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024
Trade deficit declines sharply In January, the trade deficit reached 1.4bn USD compared to 2.0bn in Dec 23, and is down 58% y/y with exports up 5.7% and imports down 20.3% (due to slowing imports of private consumption and raw materials). In the past three months (Nov-Jan), industrial exports hav...
Politics: 20 reform proposals foreshadow less democracy and more years of AMLO rule
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2024
On February 5, the anniversary of Mexico’s Constitution, which emerged from the Mexican Revolution, President López Obrador sent Congress a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reforms he says are aimed at rewriting articles introduced during the neoliberal or “neoporfirist” period. This ti...
The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets and reduces the probability of a rate cut in two weeks
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
1. Moody’s decision to place Israel on “negative outlook” (A2) resulted in higher bond yields and a weaker shekel. 2. January’s tax revenues surprised on the upside, resulting in a fiscal surplus. 3. Business sentiment continued to improve gradually in January as the economy recovers.
Disunity in the UniTeam
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Feb 2024
The Marcos Jr.-Sara Duterte alliance seemed fragile from the very beginning, but the fragility of the alliance is now made more apparent in at least two major developments recently. The first is the ICC (International Criminal Court) investigation of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte. In this, both M...
Chinese bank stops settlements with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024
On February 7 the news about Chouzhou Commercial Bank (CCB) was reported in the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti. CCB has been vital for Russia to pay for imports since 2022. CCB has reportedly informed clients that it will no longer facilitate payments. The CCB payments ended on SWIFT and Ch...
Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024
The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
Moody’s decision surprises markets The downgrade from A1 to A2 was largely expected by markets towards the end of last week. But the combination of a downgrade with a negative outlook was not expected (by the MoF as well). According to Moody’s, the negative outlook was due to the risk of escalati...
Not much new here
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024
With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...
President of the Republic resigned yesterday, with no immediate consequences for investors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
President Katalin Novák announced her resignation yesterday. In addition, Judit Varga, former minister of justice and currently the leader of Fidesz' list for the upcoming European Parliament election resigned from all her positions, including a seat in Parliament, announcing her withdrawal from ...