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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia likely to get a conditional Yes (or a conditional No) in its bid to earn EU candidate status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Georgia is anxiously waiting for European Commission’s final report on the fulfillment of the 12 recommendations needed to earn the much-coveted status of an official EU candidate country. In this short note we review the background of Georgia’s journey to applying for the status and argue that t...

Slowing growth as the South African economy labors under local and global headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2023

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...

Kazakhstan macro: Too-strong tenge still hindering budget revenue growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Nov 2023

On October 30, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 9M23, and the publication appeared later than usual. One cannot rule out that this delay was caused by internal discussions about the feasibility of the amended 2023 budget plan, as well as the 2024 budget. Tax...

2024 inflation forecast revised up slightly, band widened sharply
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2023 · 1 response

The CBRT has released the final Inflation Report of the year today, which was, as usual, accompanied by a speech and a presentation by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The CBRT aligned the end-2023 forecast with the MTP, raising it to 65% up from 58% in the July report, and revised the end-2024 foreca...

Putin withdraws Russia from nuclear treaty
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

On November 2 Putin signed the de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). CTBT forbade nuclear weapons tests. This takes effect immediately. Russia and the US signed it on 1996. Although Russia ratified it, the US never did so. Several other nuclear weapons states refuse...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Oct 20 Bereke Bank: An investor from Qatar is evaluating Kazakhstani Bereke Bank (a former subsidiary of Russian Sberbank). The aim is to propose the Kazakh government to purchase the controlling stake in the institution. Ministry of Trade: The Government confirms that there is no ban on exports ...

Economy grows at decent pace and remains overheated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that in 9M23, the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In September alone, it grew by 8.9% y-o-y - largely due to a low base effect. The industry grew by 3.3% and 5.6% over the same periods (both numbers are y-o-y). Agriculture moved from negative territory to pos...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2023

* Russia hosts Hamas for talks in Moscow during the Israel-Hamas conflict. * Russia is increasing arms production and allegedly buying from N Korea. * Fighting in Ukraine shows no advantage being gained for either side. * Armenia was forced to hand Nagorno-Karabakh back to Azerbaijan. *...

The Central Bank reduces the monetary policy interest rate from 7.50% to 7.25% annually.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

On October 31, 2023, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to reduce the monetary policy interest rate again by 25 basis points, decreasing from 7.50% to 7.25% annually. Also the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) is reduced from 8.00% to 7.75% an...

Strong current account deficit persists in 3Q23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

The National Bank reported that in 3Q23, the current account again registered a strong deficit ($2.9bn), although this deficit was slightly narrower than in 2Q23 (close to $3.3bn). In 9M23, the current account deficit widened to almost $7.7 bn. The trade balance in 9M23 was in surplus ($13.7 bn),...

Fear of floating vs. fear of falling
CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...

A mid-week macro update
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Lula says the fiscal target depends on the approval of the government’s proposals in Congress, the question is whether the government will maintain the zero-deficit target, and tomorrow is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2023

During the meeting with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, party leaders, and other ministers, President Lula made some important points, namely that the fiscal target for next year depends on the National Congress’s approving the measures sent by the government to increase revenue by the ...

Inclusion in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Index
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2023

In 2024-25, for a period of 10 months, global index funds will bring $24 billion into a group of “Fully Accessible Route” (“FAR”)-designated Indian government bonds. This flow will be material when compared with the flow of government borrowing of that period. Beyond that, this policy change i...

Azerbaijan becomes the last CCA country to cut rates
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan cut the policy rate by 50bpts to 8.5 percent on Nov 1. There was some intrigue about this policy decision given the recent downpath of inflation and the fact that the central bank was the last holdout in the CCA space regarding the transition to easing. While it had...

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